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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Seaview - Isle of Wight
  • Location: Seaview - Isle of Wight

Spring is coming but MOD thread is in denial....... Just awaiting the first "see you in November" post. I find it all rather bizarre when "we deserve it" and similar are posted... 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well the EC is not interested still.

I suspect we are fast reaching the tipping point now.

Personally i would back UKMO  120 every single time, which means we need the ukmo 12z to keep the faith this evening, if it does winter is coming next week, and the long suffering coldies will have something notable to cheer.

Have to say even though i am obv a cold fanatic my preference is cold and snow between mid November and mid feb (at the latest), so im actually quite indifferent about how this pans out.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants

Why do we still get comments on the Mod thread re complaining about differing opinions on a model run...Er because it's a forum and people have differing opinions so why not check the models yourself and reach your own conclusion. If you don't know how go to the learning section ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

I can't remember a time of such extreme volatility and disagreement - it's a fascinating reminder of how much is left to understand and discover. On that basis, anyone taking the operational output at face value at the moment is trying to nail jelly to a tree.

Add to that the different opinions of each of these differing outputs, and you have a recipe for a rather splendid mess.

Great isn't it!

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

Well so much for this SSW then.  The BBC forecast to 28th February has nothing spectacular with regards any cold temperatures and I can just imagine the most we will get from this much touted SSW is cold rain in March and April when that is the last thing we want.  If we can't get any decent cold and snow even when we get a rare SSW there is no hope.  I disagree with those who say the British Isles weather is so fascinating because it is so unpredictable.  I would rather definite patterns in our weather so at least we know its going to be on a seasonal basis.  I suppose we do have kind of reliable patterns really (cool, wet and windy most of the time).

 

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

I want to be a time traveller so I can go forward 10 days to see if them orgasmic 10 day charts do actually flipping come off

Arrrrrrrrgh 

Edited by joggs
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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Agree northwestsnow, wish we were time travellers so we could hop forward 10 days to see winter lpl

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, joggs said:

Agree northwestsnow, wish we were time travellers so we could hop forward 10 days to see winter lpl

:D

What i'm really hoping doesn't happen is Exeter flip their LRF in about an hours time.

If they don't, then there is room for optimism that UKMO might be leading the way here,if they do, then its game set and match for me and i will be looking for some spring warmth.

Like i say, im indifferent really, an easterly in march is ' after the lord mayors show' as far as im concerned, Exeters update will reveal which model they are putting stock in for sure, if its ECM forget the cold east winds and potential for significant snowfall.

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
11 hours ago, Hirudine said:

Lol, I was beginning to think I was the only person on here looking forward to Spring. Happy about the milder temps next week.

I'm also anticipating spring, not least due to the fact that I want to get on with propagating plants.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl

Not ventured into the MAD thread yet but having just checked the 0z GFS/ECM i'm not sure i will.  Spring like end to Feb then another cold spring in the far off reaches of GFS, Oh greeeaat! :nonono: 

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
3 minutes ago, swebby said:

Not ventured into the MAD thread yet but having just checked the 0z GFS/ECM i'm not sure i will.  Spring like end to Feb then another cold spring in the far off reaches of GFS, Oh greeeaat! :nonono: 

 

It's not too bad at the moment, the UKMO output has helped to keep many of the toys firmly in the prams.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

I think we'd be really unlucky not to see some sort of cold, snowy spell over the next few weeks as a result of this SSW. Fingers crossed we will.

Having said that, as someone who likes warm springs and hot summers as much as cold, snowy winters, the further we get into March the more I will want to see spring-like weather. March 2013 does prove that with the right synoptics and cold enough air we can see great cold spells even into the start of meteorological spring. However, as we get to mid/late March, it really does need to be something special to deliver more than just falling/non-settling snow. 

We still have 1/6th of meteorological winter remaining, and early March which can still deliver the goods. So realistically speaking, a month of time left before it's time to close the book on winter and welcome in spring. 

Let's see what happens and if we can pull out an epic end to winter!

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
1 minute ago, Buzz said:

 

It's not too bad at the moment, the UKMO output has helped to keep many of the toys firmly in the prams.

Ah, not seen that output, may dig out the hard hat and venture in there then.  Saw the first daffs in bloom this morning in Exeter (favoured south facing slope), once that happens i tend to start to lose my desire for snow and instead start looking forward to spring.  Snow in March (admittedly the most likely month for snow in Devon) just seems wrong. 

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Posted
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
3 hours ago, Chief Wiggam said:

Spring is coming but MOD thread is in denial....... Just awaiting the first "see you in November" post. I find it all rather bizarre when "we deserve it" and similar are posted... 

There should be a crypto currency that you can mine with the tears of cold loving posters on the net weather mod thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
1 hour ago, ChrisWSM said:

SSW....Same Shit Winter?

isn't that the truth.  I'm giving up being interested in the weather now.  just going to take whatever it gives us.....probably more of the same, wind, cloud and rain in the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

if this winter is not going to do anything substantial within the next 4 weeks then all I want is for warmer spring weather to begin.  The last think I want is for winter to suddenly decide to rear its head in March and April and thus meaning we have to keep out heating on for even longer.  I wonder if there any other counties which have to keep heating on for as long as we do (usually a good 7-8 months in most years), whilst not really having winter weather as such, just lots of cold cloud, wind and rain?

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

:D

What i'm really hoping doesn't happen is Exeter flip their LRF in about an hours time.

If they don't, then there is room for optimism that UKMO might be leading the way here,if they do, then its game set and match for me and i will be looking for some spring warmth.

Like i say, im indifferent really, an easterly in march is ' after the lord mayors show' as far as im concerned, Exeters update will reveal which model they are putting stock in for sure, if its ECM forget the cold east winds and potential for significant snowfall.

 

Got your wish northwestsnow.

They're saying it will happen now.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
49 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:

Anyone how well the ICON verifies ?

Hi LWH

Click the 'Accuracy' tab just below the forecast days here

 

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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

never seen such a bullish 

it WILL get colder with snow in South East and central met office update before since the internet began 

very interesting update 

surely it' going to happen isn' it ???

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

UKMO looks like its moving towards the GFS, I think some more toys will start getting thrown out of the pram :rofl:

Roll on some spring weather :D

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