Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[snowblizzard]

528 DAM line over Kent and BBC forecast 11C in London on Saturday?

[Buzz]

From looking at the model output 'discussion' (sorry, 'reaction') thread, it looks like ECM is the current hero of the day because it's showing people what they want to see. Over the past few days it's been trashed and lambasted and now it's apparently the star. The incredibly fickle nature of many posters on this forum never ceases to amaze me.

[knocker]

31 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

528 DAM line over Kent and BBC forecast 11C in London on Saturday?

To be fair the ecm this morning is giving max temps of 10C for the south on Saturday and the gfs 8C.

[Yarmy]

Without adding to the general hysteria, I do think there are some fascinating weeks coming up. The Strat charts are remarkable, especially in the context of the last few years:

GEFS has form for over-egging things, but the GEOS is singing from the same hymn sheet with numerous daily records forecast:

 

Edit: Apologies for the appalling mixed metaphor. 

Edited February 13, 2018 by Yarmy

[Deep Snow please]

1 hour ago, chris78 said:

87 and 91!  Last night there was a post in there saying coldest and snowiest period since the 16th and 17th century!   If the sea aroind the uk doesnt freeze...im calling this a let down.

Yep, feels like some may need to put there rampometers in the bin after breaking them. 

If we did end up with a winter like 1684 it could very well cripple the country.

[jvenge]

25 minutes ago, Buzz said:

From looking at the model output 'discussion' (sorry, 'reaction') thread, it looks like ECM is the current hero of the day because it's showing people what they want to see. Over the past few days it's been trashed and lambasted and now it's apparently the star. The incredibly fickle nature of many posters on this forum never ceases to amaze me.

Not quite sure it is. Although there is a search for cold on that thread, it is actually a precursor to a snow search. There isn't anything on this mornings ECM run to excite those looking for snow. Unless, of course, we play the ever played game of imagining different model output to the one shown, or if we imagine output in frames beyond what is even FI.

Not that I play down the SSW, as it is a significant one, but people really should stick to the output modeled, rather than trying to invent. Less disappointment for all then :-) Also, less garbage for me to sift through ;-)

[Buzz]

6 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Not quite sure it is. Although there is a search for cold on that thread, it is actually a precursor to a snow search. There isn't anything on this mornings ECM run to excite those looking for snow. Unless, of course, we play the ever played game of imagining different model output to the one shown, or if we imagine output in frames beyond what is even FI.

 

I think that most people on the model reaction thread just look at the pretty colours: blues (and purple) mean cold and could lead to snow. At least that's how it seems. However, it's a two stage thing - firstly people are desperate for snow so first they look for the blue colours. After that comes the hankering for snow (and subsequently toys thrown out of prams when things don't go their way). I just feel that it's a great shame that the model reaction thread is mostly just that - a bunch of reactions which the dedicated but over-worked mods seem unable to properly police or prevent. There are of course some excellent analytical posts from people such as Tamara but sadly these are swamped by the reactionary nonsense posted by the majority.

[knocker]

46 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Without adding to the general hysteria, I do think there are some fascinating weeks coming up. The Strat charts are remarkable, especially in the context of the last few years:

GEFS has form for over-egging things, but the GEOS is singing from the same hymn sheet with numerous daily records forecast:

 

Edit: Apologies for the appalling mixed metaphor. 

I agree completely with that, from a meteorological angle certainly an extremely interesting few weeks on the cards which is why it's so odd that some managed to turn it so easily into a bore-fest.

Edited February 13, 2018 by knocker

[Frosty_wsm]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Yup, high pressure over Outer Hebrides.

Didn't you say  the other day that we'd sse no response from the ssw for another 2 to 4 weeks?? lol

You really shouldn't have been taken what the models were showing (before flipping  yesterday) as gospel, especially when a major ssw was set to occur. 

 

 

Edited February 13, 2018 by Smartie

[TEITS]

30 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I think that most people on the model reaction thread just look at the pretty colours: blues (and purple) mean cold and could lead to snow. At least that's how it seems. However, it's a two stage thing - firstly people are desperate for snow so first they look for the blue colours. After that comes the hankering for snow (and subsequently toys thrown out of prams when things don't go their way). I just feel that it's a great shame that the model reaction thread is mostly just that - a bunch of reactions which the dedicated but over-worked mods seem unable to properly police or prevent. There are of course some excellent analytical posts from people such as Tamara but sadly these are swamped by the reactionary nonsense posted by the majority.

I think it would be far better if you made a contribution to the model discussion thread rather than slagging off those who do.

The current charts in the model output especially the ensemble means are about as good as you can possibly get for the UK. If you cannot see this yourself then you either need to find a new hobby or learn how do read the charts yourself.

Very few contributors to the thread have promised endless blizzards. This is because even having a blocked weather pattern doesn't equal bitter cold for the UK. However the chances are increased and like I say some of the ensemble means are synoptically very much like 1947!

[KDME]

5 minutes ago, TEITS said:

However the chances are increased and like I say some of the ensemble means are synoptically very much like 1947!

It just need to come off just ONCE as advertised 

[Woollymummy]

2 hours ago, Number 23 said:

Probably wise to keep the powder dry at the moment. 

New members could easily get drawn into talk of 87 and 91. To my untrained eye it seems we're still out to 200 hours for the result most want, and SSW or not, that's still very much in garden path territory for an easterly. 

Speaking of 1991, here is a photo of our hard work that year, built by me and my friends, we slept one night in it (needed more bedding but wasn't too bad!); it lasted until a week after the thaw. Excellent fun, I doubt we will get this much snow in the next few weeks, but if you have bored children nearby, tell them try and make one of these. It even had "stained glass" windows, food colouring and water in the freezer overnight.

[A.J]

15 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I think it would be far better if you made a contribution to the model discussion thread rather than slagging off those who do.

The current charts in the model output especially the ensemble means are about as good as you can possibly get for the UK. If you cannot see this yourself then you either need to find a new hobby or learn how do read the charts yourself.

Very few contributors to the thread have promised endless blizzards. This is because even having a blocked weather pattern doesn't equal bitter cold for the UK. However the chances are increased and like I say some of the ensemble means are synoptically very much like 1947!

I think you've got the wrong end of the stick Dave......There are some long time posters (and I include yourself in this group) who post what I call 'proper model discussion' with analysis and full reasoning behind their thoughts.......I find a lot of these posters  content is being 'drowned out' by the hordes of utterly pointless ramps and one liners, and sarcastic digs (especially by some of the newer members)....Most of these pointless ramps/one liners belong in here or in the NW bin....(I feel sorry for my former collegues in the mod team, things never change and no matter how many times we asked people to post in the correct thread, they'd just stick their virtual two fingers up at us).....In closing, personally seeing posts like 'Wow, whata run'....or 'ignore such and such as he's just a mild ramper' completely off topic and should either go in here, or be binned

[TEITS]

7 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

I think you've got the wrong end of the stick Dave......There are some long time posters (and I include yourself in this group) who post what I call 'proper model discussion' with analysis and full reasoning behind their thoughts.......I find a lot of these posters  content is being 'drowned out' by the hordes of utterly pointless ramps and one liners, and sarcastic digs (especially by some of the newer members)....Most of these pointless ramps/one liners belong in here or in the NW bin....(I feel sorry for my former collegues in the mod team, things never change and no matter how many times we asked people to post in the correct thread, they'd just stick their virtual two fingers up at us).....In closing, personally seeing posts like 'Wow, whata run'....or 'ignore such and such as he's just a mild ramper' completely off topic and should either go in here, or be binned

Fair enough mate. I do have a habit of getting the wrong end of the stick.

[Number 23]

17 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

Speaking of 1991, here is a photo of our hard work that year, built by me and my friends, we slept one night in it (needed more bedding but wasn't too bad!); it lasted until a week after the thaw. Excellent fun, I doubt we will get this much snow in the next few weeks, but if you have bored children nearby, tell them try and make one of these. It even had "stained glass" windows, food colouring and water in the freezer overnight.

Bloody hell, you didn't do it by half! A collector's item.

I've very fond memories of '91, it was the first major cold weather event I can clearly remember, and was old enough to get out and enjoy with friends. The path edges were piled so high on both sides with snow where they'd been shoveled clear they nearly reached my waist. I'm not really into the cold and snow unless it's an event like this (just not worth the hassle and disruption otherwise, IMO). 

The '87 event all I can remember is being walked to school and really struggling to breathe in the bitter wind. Was my first taste of true cold and was pretty frightening for six-year-old me. 

Would be interesting to see what this spell, if it arrives, can bring this late into the season for my region.

[mountain shadow]

57 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Didn't you say  the other day that we'd sse no response from the ssw for another 2 to 4 weeks?? lol

You really shouldn't have been taken what the models were showing (before flipping  yesterday) as gospel, especially when a major ssw was set to occur. 

 

 

I've been model watching for over 15 years and don't need your guidance on what and what not to believe in the model output.

As far as I can see, we are still around the two week mark before we are into the proper cold with snow.

[Number 23]

14 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

I think you've got the wrong end of the stick Dave......There are some long time posters (and I include yourself in this group) who post what I call 'proper model discussion' with analysis and full reasoning behind their thoughts.......I find a lot of these posters  content is being 'drowned out' by the hordes of utterly pointless ramps and one liners, and sarcastic digs (especially by some of the newer members)....Most of these pointless ramps/one liners belong in here or in the NW bin....(I feel sorry for my former collegues in the mod team, things never change and no matter how many times we asked people to post in the correct thread, they'd just stick their virtual two fingers up at us).....In closing, personally seeing posts like 'Wow, whata run'....or 'ignore such and such as he's just a mild ramper' completely off topic and should either go in here, or be binned

I'd second this. There's a solid group of long-standing members who regularly post constructive analysis of the potential outcomes, and sure, most have a preference for cold and will post accordingly, but I always read their content on the understanding that there are no guarantees being made. They are also among the first to caution against getting carried away and explain why. Most who have been on the forum long enough appreciate the health warnings that should be applied to forecasting out past 144-168, but that takes time to understand and appreciate the other tools and techniques which should be used to sanity check the operational output.

New members must find it very difficult to get a handle on things when for every decent well-explained post there are three more implying feet of snow, and another two promising mild. This to me has worsened since the severe weather over 2009/10. It actively diminishes the value of the good posts to the uninitiated. I remember when I first started following the thread in 2004/5 - I lost count of the number of times I scurried off to tell everyone we'd be buried in snow next week based on a few errant posts, and then... a marriage of face and egg.

Sod being a mod!

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, knocker said:

Now that definitely would not be good news

 

Good news for your squirrel friend as he has already got his new coat on in preparation

[knocker]

Ah but not too bad if we manage to keep the more intense cold further east.

[Buzz]

2 hours ago, TEITS said:

I think it would be far better if you made a contribution to the model discussion thread rather than slagging off those who do.

The current charts in the model output especially the ensemble means are about as good as you can possibly get for the UK. If you cannot see this yourself then you either need to find a new hobby or learn how do read the charts yourself.

Very few contributors to the thread have promised endless blizzards. This is because even having a blocked weather pattern doesn't equal bitter cold for the UK. However the chances are increased and like I say some of the ensemble means are synoptically very much like 1947!

As has already been mentioned, I do think that you've grasped the shitty end of the sticky stick there Dave.

I always enjoy your posts but you seem to have misinterpreted mine. ajpoolshark has summed up my feelings nicely.

As for me contributing to the model reaction (sorry, 'discussion') thread, if I thought I was enough of an expert I would do so but I would rather leave that up to the real experts (as I think should be the case with the majority of the posts in that thread). I'm no expert on the weather, just an enthusiastic observer, but it's not difficult to spot all of the nonsense posts.

 

[JoeShmoe]

To me its quite simple

If there is cross model agreement at T=72 then i'll buy in otherwise seen this movie 10 times a year for the last 15 winters

Its always dependent on a trigger shortwave and the depth of severity is watered down 99% of the time

Folks should also be aware that for some places (esp SW Scotland) its been a snowy winter already with more snow falling again this week

[78/79]

6 hours ago, Steve C said:

Saw that post. I was thinking the winter of 1684 compressed into late February and March! It'll play utter hell with our infrastructure.

I'd venture to say that these days  a good cold winter of yesteryear would play havoc with this country full stop. Even back in the late 70's we still relied mostly on coal fires heating the living room , the rest of the house was bl''''dy freezing.  When you consider how these days most households rely on central heating for their warmth, one or two good blizzards  as in 47 or 63 would cause widespread power cuts , resulting in useless central heating systems  eg  electricity to fire it up and pump it around.  

Years ago  we it least were able to keep warm in one room , these days you would have a lot of very cold people about.  Every house in my opinion should have  one working chimney, not just for heating, but for ventilation as well.

[Hirudine]

5 hours ago, Woollymummy said:

Speaking of 1991, here is a photo of our hard work that year, built by me and my friends, we slept one night in it (needed more bedding but wasn't too bad!); it lasted until a week after the thaw. Excellent fun, I doubt we will get this much snow in the next few weeks, but if you have bored children nearby, tell them try and make one of these. It even had "stained glass" windows, food colouring and water in the freezer overnight.

When I lived in Germany back in the 80s I made an igloo with some friends, although as it was in a public space (we lived in a block of flats at the time) we didn't sleep in it overnight. I think yours looks a lot neater than ours did, as we made bricks by rolling snow into big balls and then shaping them- the ice cream tubs sound like a better idea!

[JoeShmoe]

lol, mod thread unravelling as the inevitable occurs

Edited February 13, 2018 by JoeShmoe

[Daniel*]

I seriously think there is not a chance in earth we are going to miss out on easterly all routes seemingly get there I’m very bullish on this like nothing else that’s come before it.