Jump to content

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 12k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Just this minute watched a news article on BBC News 24 - regarding SSW - Met O representative indicated very high probability of Easterlies by next Monday and MOGREPS model was mentioned - sounded like MET O are very confident - also mentioned that QTR is yet to become established in freeview models - there is hope ?

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Certain kind of fool said:

Make the most of it. All i keep hearing is "delayed spring", "bitter march" etc etc. It's been the same EVERY February since 2013. 

I wonder what the return rate is for a march like 2013? More than five years I would think. 

That said, I'm on leave the first week of march to get the garden sorted so that will definitely be a wet and very probably cold week.

i dont believe a word of it when i read about a delayed spring etc, things from what i see are going to be ok, perfect conditions to be outside in the garden etc, granted there looks like some rain at times but i think we can safely say the snow risk for this winter/early spring have now gone

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Number 23 said:

Beautiful morning here today. Whatever happens over the next couple of weeks at least we'll have Spring knocking on the door. Hope the SSW doesn't have any effect in March. 

The sun is strong today and the cold models are weakening.... Roll on spring Double digit temperatures in the South and absolutely no indication of deep cold.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Considering the ecm is not exactly the flavour of the month it's not without interest that the EPS means in ext period have a highly amplified scenario with a trough in mid Atlantic with strong ridging over Scandinavia and the surface high over Norway. It would not take a huge adjustment of the alignment of the major players to advect cold air in from the north east and the most important resurrection for a couple of thousand years would be underway

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, knocker said:

Considering the ecm is not exactly the flavour of the month it's not without interest that the EPS means in ext period have a highly amplified scenario with a trough in mid Atlantic with strong ridging over Scandinavia and the surface high over Norway. It would not take a huge adjustment of the alignment of the major players to advect cold air in from the north east and the most important resurrection for a couple of thousand years would be underway

I like how Knocker lifts our spirits when we're suicidal and tempers our mood when we're ecstatic... he's like a resident therapist.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, meh said:

I like how Knocker lifts our spirits when we're suicidal and tempers our mood when we're ecstatic... he's like a resident therapist.

Resident minister of keeping it real.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

If we do get this Easterly it’s too late to save this pathetic winter down here,as it be beginning of March before we see the full  effect of the SSW and that’s spring lol,however if it ends up rivalling March 2013 and the heavy snowfall mid-month then it’s some kind of consolation.

just two days of falling snow and a sprinkling that looked like someone had shaken talcum powder on the ground,is all we have had here.

Pathetic,still no lying snow for coming up 5 years can this SSW save that pathetic fact .

To Think  we were almost guaranteed one decent Easterly a season  in winters gone by which would mean at least several days of bitter cold and lying snow in the WINTER months, now it seems you have to wait decades to see one Easterly outbreak.

And some  professional people are still in denial that the climate has changed.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

It needs saying . The point I'm trying to make is people stick there neck out and comment on how the models may evolve . And yer they may get it wrong and it don't work out but at least they comment on the evolution. Crewe just comes in when it's going wrong and says told , can see it a mile off etc etc . Cheers 

That’s a bit harsh isn’t,from the posts I have seen from him,he is normally pretty good at predicting that a cold spell won’t be happening when the models are showing it incoming and posters going boom etc,and then the cold spell never actually arrives,which isn’t surprising in this pathetic Island ,if you like cold and snowy weather,which sits as the same latitude as Arctic Canda yet snow only lies properly for more than a day or so about 2000ft in the Highlands:gathering:

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Matthew. said:

Really hoping we can squeeze a March 2003, 2012 out but I can’t see it happening with the colder pattern probably arriving. I suppose you never know though

Yes but down here even the 2013 event was a non event so for me I am done for winter 2017. Onto summer for me 

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Crikey, the Mod thread, really is a place inhabited by the needy, where patience is in extremely, short supply.

Or as  the French, succinctly put it, " Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!"

This is the first Winter, I've spent, any appreciable time on there, since my stroke, in September 2015. It's now coming back to me, what a nightmare, the thread is. We may not achieve, HLB from this SSW, in a favourable location, for the UK but come on, does it really necessitate, some of the responses, on there.

There really are more important things in life.

Regards,

Tom.

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, knocker said:

This isn't a million miles away from last night's ext EPS :shok:

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_65.thumb.png.3456d8a4ce481a6a435fb154867ea14f.png

And the ext EPS means continuing in the same vein this morning with similar amplification albeit the ridge a tad further east with the surface high over southern Norway. Where will it all end? Heaven forbid the Atlantic trough becomes negatively tilted thus re-orientating the high cell and initiating CAA from the north east. Doesn't bear thinking about Sidney. Albeit at this stage temps not that much below average

caption_squirrel.jpg

Edited by knocker
  • Like 4
  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...