Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[SLEETY]

Oh well hope this SSW which all the experts say is going to happen delivers big time.

Most say they expect the high to retrogress to Greenland ,the best example I found of this happening is jan 1881 ,let’s hope for a repeat then 

 

Edited February 6, 2018 by SLEETY

[ANYWEATHER]

3 hours ago, sausage said:

gosh this model output is draining. going to be march at this rate. easterlies dont wrk in march due to north sea temps. i remember that from march 13. Just cant get excited about anything. all this met office talk of systems running into uk producing snow. erm im not seeing this at all!! this week really was over ramped probably also why steve murrs gone so quiet!!come on models for once give us something amazing, not good, something mouth watering. a few days of easterly prolonged heavy natiomwide snow showers will do!!

Easterlies do work in March , but pending how cold the thickness of the air is!  Anyway for a laugh the gfs produces the cold goods again at the end of its run , if that happens I will eat my hat and the Chocolate Teapot

[WalsallWeather123]

Even if we do get a full blown easterly in the long run, the models show that the air to the east isn't going to be as cold as it was today. With the above average north sea temps, it will warm further. Still a lot to resolve.

[78/79]

Glad I was born in 1960, at least I've seen a decent winter ,not like today's  s..ite  excuse for one 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ay, bairns of today won't know a real winter

[Evening thunder]

Night before last night stubbern cloud stopped what looked like the coldest night of the winter being so. Last night, wind kept it above freezing until 4am.

There hasn't really been anything of note at all from this cold snap here (though Cornwall had snow yesterday), which is a shame, because there isn't necessarily anything of note coming. Models show it being a while away even if it does arrive (2 weeks plus). By then the sun's getting stronger (though that won't do too much to stop snow falling events yet), will there be deep cold to tap into etc.

Whatever data Meteogroup use shows W-SW winds and minima/maxima of + 5/9C for me out to 20th Feb.

These are the same model runs that produce the Stratosphere and MJO forecasts so not sure why I should dis-believe them (at least, any more than usual!), unless it's scientifically known that they aren't good at integrating the effects of the MJO and SSW's within the same model runs?
Though some runs do show a favourable response, and of course and it may come later on.

[northwestsnow]

As mouthwatering as GFS fi  is this morning i just read Retrons post on TWO and i agree entirely- for those in the south esp, this easterly if it comes will be too late in the day (or winter) to bring a proper freeze- by late Feb the sun will have far too much oomph in it to produce zub zero maxima and any lying snow will melt at a rate of knots.Further north,esp hillier areas might just about be OK depending on how low the uppers are.

As a summer lover/ winter enthusiast i cant help but feel despondent that this SSW didnt occur in Dec/Jan when the longer days and strengthening sun wouldnt be an issue.

Its notmy cup of tea snow showers melting between , although others may disagree, which is fine.

[knocker]

10 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay, bairns of today won't know a real winter

And how lucky they are. I still have nightmares of struggling to school through a couple of feet of snow in '47. And these days they only have to whip out their smart phones to relieve the trauma of 62-63. They are indeed truly blessed.

[mb018538]

15 hours ago, sausage said:

gosh this model output is draining. going to be march at this rate. easterlies dont wrk in march due to north sea temps. i remember that from march 13. Just cant get excited about anything. all this met office talk of systems running into uk producing snow. erm im not seeing this at all!! this week really was over ramped probably also why steve murrs gone so quiet!!come on models for once give us something amazing, not good, something mouth watering. a few days of easterly prolonged heavy natiomwide snow showers will do!!

Nothing to so with SSTs - as others have pointed out, they are at their coldest at this time of year (seasonal lag and all that)....it's more the fact that the days are longer, the sun higher in the sky and has more oomph. Always seems to happen that anything happens out of peak season. A major SSW in late December/early jan would be epic.

[Nath]

Wow what an amazing cold spell.  NOT!!!

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Nath said:

Wow what an amazing cold spell.  NOT!!!

Just seems like a normal chilly spell for the time of year to me not worth all the hype it got towards the end of the month may be a different story if the SSW is favourable

[Number 23]

Inexplicably, our local authorities deemed it appropriate to close the flyover in town this morning causing chaos - this in response to something I could barely describe as a dusting.

[RJBingham]

To be fair, we nearly had a frost this morning.

[Decemberof2010]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

As mouthwatering as GFS fi  is this morning i just read Retrons post on TWO and i agree entirely- for those in the south esp, this easterly if it comes will be too late in the day (or winter) to bring a proper freeze- by late Feb the sun will have far too much oomph in it to produce zub zero maxima and any lying snow will melt at a rate of knots.Further north,esp hillier areas might just about be OK depending on how low the uppers are.

As a summer lover/ winter enthusiast i cant help but feel despondent that this SSW didnt occur in Dec/Jan when the longer days and strengthening sun wouldnt be an issue.

Its notmy cup of tea snow showers melting between , although others may disagree, which is fine.

I hear what your saying. But I remember 22nd March 2013 here in Leeds we had snow for 3 days, with huge drifts further out towards north yorks. That snow lasted a week on the ground. Obviously further south will be more difficult. 

I have a feeling we won't see anything that noteworthy anyway, but I'm not worried about it being late Feb at all.

[Polar Front]

Pathe News music is quite apt! How it used to be in the 80's.................

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGqdV9A0Zns

[Audaxian]

Had a couple of cm of snow on top of my car this morning. Very pretty in the garden, though it seems to have been pretty localised ... by the time I got out of Uckfield onto the A22 the amount of lying snow was minimal. Was still impressed that some of the snow I left on the roof of the car was still there by the time I got to Uxbridge.

More of a starter than a main course. Hopefully the SSW waiter brings a big helping soon.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Could be the best Valentines present for celebrating next weekend ?

[knocker]

Good to see the warm air in place in case we get an easterly breeze

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Here comes the beasterly 

Edited February 7, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[Tonyinhampshire]

Paris had a good dump heaviest in 30 years. I bet Spain gets it again like last year. Could get car off ferry at Bilbao due to blizzards. UK winter almost over as my thoughts turn towards spring.

[Froze were the Days]

You gotta laugh...not one word on the ecm 12z so far so we all know what that means. Just more talk about this SSW in the far distance. A lot of people are pinning their hopes on this...

[Don]

11 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

As mouthwatering as GFS fi  is this morning i just read Retrons post on TWO and i agree entirely- for those in the south esp, this easterly if it comes will be too late in the day (or winter) to bring a proper freeze- by late Feb the sun will have far too much oomph in it to produce zub zero maxima and any lying snow will melt at a rate of knots.Further north,esp hillier areas might just about be OK depending on how low the uppers are.

As a summer lover/ winter enthusiast i cant help but feel despondent that this SSW didnt occur in Dec/Jan when the longer days and strengthening sun wouldnt be an issue.

Its notmy cup of tea snow showers melting between , although others may disagree, which is fine.

Beggars can't be choosers.  I too would much rather have an easterly earlier in the winter but even if it's too late to deliver a proper freeze, it's better than nothing even if lying snow is short lived.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Here comes the beasterly 

Any idea as to how many T+384 charts, looking just like that one, we've seen so far, this year?

[Froze were the Days]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Any idea as to how many T+384 charts, looking just like that one, we've seen so far, this year?

Quite a few...if we all lived in GFS 384z land the Express would have a field day, the just passed 'Killer Big Freeze' must of claimed numerous fruit flies and spiders.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

13 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

As mouthwatering as GFS fi  is this morning i just read Retrons post on TWO and i agree entirely- for those in the south esp, this easterly if it comes will be too late in the day (or winter) to bring a proper freeze- by late Feb the sun will have far too much oomph in it to produce zub zero maxima and any lying snow will melt at a rate of knots.Further north,esp hillier areas might just about be OK depending on how low the uppers are.

As a summer lover/ winter enthusiast i cant help but feel despondent that this SSW didnt occur in Dec/Jan when the longer days and strengthening sun wouldnt be an issue.

Its notmy cup of tea snow showers melting between , although others may disagree, which is fine.

Wouldn't occur Dec and Jan though, hard enough nowadays as it is, SSW's mainly happen Feb/Mar