Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I'm very ancient being born in 1950 and to be honest UK Winters have always been a bit sh*t. Been some amazing exceptions though. I remember 62/63 very well, had a lot a lot snow in Oldham, my dad digging snow away from the front door so we could get out. Then we had some fantastic deep snows in the late 70's and up to about 1987 there was decent cold and snow falls as well. But then we had a return to the default in 1988 up to 1991 when we had that very snowy Feb, other notable spells Dec 1995, 1996, Dec 2000 etc etc and more recently late 2008 to early 2013.. .....In between all these cold and memorable snow events is what we have now - boring and relatively mild with just the odd brief snow cover in Winter. Fact is we have a maritime climate and not a continental one. Our winds have always been primarily from the west/southwest - never a great direction for cold, if they were from the east/north east in Winter then we would have a modified (still because we are an island & of our proximity to the Atlantic) continental climate.

Haha, so succinctly put. Entirely agree. What I mean is that despite our temperate climate, winter weather really hasn't been as bad as some make out, not least re snow and especially given unremarkable conditions can result in it. I certainly don't expect 12 weeks of persistent cold but I do expect 2-3 occurrences of snow and a fair number of frosts. We are after all one of the few places that is affected by 6 airmasses.

[stainesbloke]

Well I wouldn't say cold zonal was wonderful and I didn't think people were describing it as such. I have no idea if a change to cold zonal will increase chances of snow and proper cold. But this dreary, gloomy rubbish isn't particularly pleasant. Dry is absolutely great if we can get the beautiful conditions of a week or two ago: sunny days and frosty nights. That'd do me for much of winter but it is nice to have a bit of the variety that these islands are infamous for. Something for everyone; just as long as we don't get endless southwesterly gales and rain!

[Matthew.]

Cold zonal usually brings a brighter, dry polar air along with showers. I don't think rain would amount to too much under such a setup. The winter of 2014/15 a good example.

[Ben Lewis]

10 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Well I wouldn't say cold zonal was wonderful and I didn't think people were describing it as such. I have no idea if a change to cold zonal will increase chances of snow and proper cold. But this dreary, gloomy rubbish isn't particularly pleasant. Dry is absolutely great if we can get the beautiful conditions of a week or two ago: sunny days and frosty nights. That'd do me for much of winter but it is nice to have a bit of the variety that these islands are infamous for. Something for everyone; just as long as we don't get endless southwesterly gales and rain!

I'd rather dry and gloomy to Atlantic dross. I guess my original point was; getting excited over an Atlantic takeover makes no sense to me unless you want wind and rain. 

The Atlantic has done us no favours in recent winters and kept us in a daily rut throughout winter, so I guess that's why I don't share folks enthusiasm of cold zonal when it could quite easily lead to endless southwesterly gales and rain for weeks on end as it has done over the last 3 winters. 

[Summer Sun]

Not seen this type of graph before from the beeb it shows how many models favour different scenarios for Christmas

Dark blue is wind and rain - most favoured

Light blue is Frost and sunshine - less likely

White is snow - an outside bet

 

[Matthew.]

2 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

I'd rather dry and gloomy to Atlantic dross. I guess my original point was; getting excited over an Atlantic takeover makes no sense to me unless you want wind and rain. 

The Atlantic has done us no favours in recent winters and kept us in a daily rut throughout winter, so I guess that's why I don't share folks enthusiasm of cold zonal when it could quite easily lead to endless southwesterly gales and rain for weeks on end as it has done over the last 3 winters. 

But 2014/15 was characterised by cold zonal Atlantic driven and came out one of the sunniest winters on record if I'm not very much mistaken.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Not seen this type of graph before from the beeb it shows how many models favour different scenarios for Christmas

Dark blue is wind and rain - most favoured

Light blue is Frost and sunshine - less likely

White is snow - an outside bet

 

bbc got this right I reckon, I'm going for an Atlantic dominated Xmas, with rain and gales, with significant snow in Buxton etc, lower levels Scotland

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bbc got this right I reckon, I'm going for an Atlantic dominated Xmas, with rain and gales, with significant snow in Buxton etc, lower levels Scotland

If you count the dots, that gives a 15% chance of snow - to lower levels I presume. Mountains obviously a lot higher chance.

Edited December 16, 2016 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[abruzzi spur]

2 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

No he isn't. He's harping on about how good cold zonality is compared to our current dry weather. 

We all know that unsettled weather is the likely turn around later next week but I fail to see how we should all be excited and pleased over it, unless cold rain and snow on top of Scottish mountains floats your boat over the Christmas period. 

Like I said,each to their own and I respect that but I don't see how a member banging on about how superb cold zonal is!  - Firstly, "it isn't"... and secondly it isn't "model related"

Also, this pattern change to Atlantic dross and how it may help? its hasn't done diddly squat the past 3 winters, so excuse me if I lack enthusiasm hoping for things to turn cold and snowy from an Atlantic mild & wet lock in!! 

 

 

Anyway, each to their own, eh?

[Ben Lewis]

25 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

Anyway, each to their own, eh?

Eh? 

[stewfox]

9 hours ago, cheese said:

I was born in 1987 so I can only base my opinion on the winters that followed, but I would agree with you that the 00s weren't that bad for cold and snow - certainly not here. Definitely wasn't just Feb and Dec 09 that were decent.

Jan 87, Feb 86 , Dec 81 I real winters then

Said in 1981...........THE last three winters have proved to those of the younger generation just what winters of the past have been like – having been brought up on a diet of mild and wet winters of the past 20 years or so.

The winter of 1981-82 was record-breaking. On December 8, 1981 cold air turned overnight rain into snow, which lay 25-40mm (1inch-1.5 inches) deep by midday.

Read more at http://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/look-frozen-winter-1981-2/story-14267881-detail/story.html#zGqruCAwwGcwMAti.99

Edited December 16, 2016 by stewfox

[Ben Lewis]

Just watched the regional weather on ITV.

The 'Dry' weather whingers are going to be estastatic:

"wet and windy leading up to Christmas and continuing" 

How exciting! 

[booferking]

The PV wakes up implodes itself and we live happily ever after the end..

[Captain Shortwave]

The issue with forecasting cold zonality is that quite often the 850s forecast at 6/7 days out often get modified by a couple of degrees upwards and hence the 3/4C with blustery wintry showers turns into near normal temperatures and rain. 

The forecasting period up to Christmas looks messy with a strong Atlantic jet hitting that high over western Russia and Eastern Europe, I suspect this will at the very least remain in situ if not create some forcing on the low heights over the pole.

[abruzzi spur]

25 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Eh? 

Thought it was reasonably clear the point I was making. If not, never mind eh?

[Bristawl Si]

Despite my v pessimistic posts lately, latest outputs point to a flip end of year to something more wintry - gut feel only, i hasten to add.

[Ben Lewis]

7 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Despite my v pessimistic posts lately, latest outputs point to a flip end of year to something more wintry - gut feel only, i hasten to add.

Hope so @Bristle boy 

My gut is saying a mild and wet lock in for some time at least until mid January. 

[northwestsnow]

Sigh, i can understand some folk are bored into submission with this mind numbingly boring drizzly mild pattern but quite why peeps are clapping for a more zonal reset i have no idea.Unless youre on a hill up north, or more likely mountain, its going to be a very wet christmas...we are looking at january now for hope, imho...

[Walsall Wood Snow]

39 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Jan 87, Feb 86 , Dec 81 I real winters then

Said in 1981...........THE last three winters have proved to those of the younger generation just what winters of the past have been like – having been brought up on a diet of mild and wet winters of the past 20 years or so.

The winter of 1981-82 was record-breaking. On December 8, 1981 cold air turned overnight rain into snow, which lay 25-40mm (1inch-1.5 inches) deep by midday.

Read more at http://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/look-frozen-winter-1981-2/story-14267881-detail/story.html#zGqruCAwwGcwMAti.99

I was going to question who 'said in 1981' but then I realised this article was published in 2011 and wasn't a contemporary piece and that the 3 Winters they were referring to would have been those from 2008/09 to 2010/11, rather than the 3 before then. Of course that run of cold Winters started roughly with that of 1976/77 with the last being that of 1986/87. So about a decade. There was quite a run of mild Winters though before that period starting with probably 1971/72 with 1974/75 for example being especially so. We obviously had a shorter run of cold Winters from that of 2008/09 to 2012/13 (2011/12 being an exception for the most part). It does go to show though that the theme of Winter temperatures often cluster one way or the other over a number of years from time to time. Let's just hope the mild theme of Winters from 2013/14 was ended with last Winter and that this Winter eventually proves to be different.

[78/79]

I for one certainly hope that the Atlantic doesn't show it's ugly mug for too long, it becomes almost impossible to get out and earn a living when it's raining for weeks on end

[cheese]

8 hours ago, stewfox said:

Jan 87, Feb 86 , Dec 81 I real winters then

Said in 1981...........THE last three winters have proved to those of the younger generation just what winters of the past have been like – having been brought up on a diet of mild and wet winters of the past 20 years or so.

The winter of 1981-82 was record-breaking. On December 8, 1981 cold air turned overnight rain into snow, which lay 25-40mm (1inch-1.5 inches) deep by midday.

Read more at http://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/look-frozen-winter-1981-2/story-14267881-detail/story.html#zGqruCAwwGcwMAti.99

Hm - looking at weather history for Leeds, Jan 1987 and Feb 1986 were cold but dry, with the heaviest snow across south eastern areas. Seems like a typical easterly in that regard.

I've seen pictures of snow here in December 1981 and that was a very good month by all accounts.

Edited December 17, 2016 by cheese

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Sigh, i can understand some folk are bored into submission with this mind numbingly boring drizzly mild pattern but quite why peeps are clapping for a more zonal reset i have no idea.Unless youre on a hill up north, or more likely mountain, its going to be a very wet christmas...we are looking at january now for hope, imho...

What I was saying from Mid Nov, the cold was due late Nov, then early Dec, then Mid Dec, then late Dec, now mid Jan! not going to get cold at all I reckon

agree with 'Shropshire' on the other side! once zonal now, it can be locked in for 6-8 weeks, where as it used to be just 2-3

Edited December 17, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Weather-history]

22 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

What I was saying from Mid Nov, the cold was due late Nov, then early Dec, then Mid Dec, then late Dec, now mid Jan! not going to get cold at all I reckon

agree with 'Shropshire' on the other side! once zonal now, it can be locked in for 6-8 weeks, where as it used to be just 2-3

How long is a piece of string?

How can you tell how long zonality will last? It will last as long as the circumstances allow it. What makes you say that zonality lasted only 2-3 weeks in the past? 

 

[knocker]

Everything is hunky dory this morning and it looks like I'm on a promise.

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Everything is hunky dory this morning and it looks like I'm on a promise.