Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Walsall Wood Snow]

On 02/02/2018 at 20:54, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

TMW as it's worst, underestimated again by many members, yes, it's a typical cold spell for the christmas pudding, few colder days 5C in the south, colder in the north, few snow flurries possible, then turning less cold on Thursday 8th, then probably milder still on Sat 10th

Let's be honest, nothing will ever satisfy you ever. Not even a decent snow cover in early December as you had this year satisfies you, which is strange as you have this strange idea that the 90s were brilliant. Well news flash with the exception of 90/91 and 95/96 this Winter is already as good or better in the Midlands than most if not all Winters besides those two, not to mention we've already had 3 or 4 Winters in the last 10 years which I would rather re experience than any 90s Winter round here, with the exception of 90/91. 

Seriously what keeps you interested anyway if you've got this impression that cold and snowy Winters are next to impossible.

I'd love time travel could be possible  because perhaps then you could relive the 90s  and truly see how worthless a decade it was overall for long lasting snow cover. I on the other hand would choose any Winter from 2008/09 to 2012/13 (besides 2011/12) over any Winter in the 90s (besides perhaps 1990/91) any day forever, so that's 3 or 4 versus 1. Also give me the 40s, 50s and 60s or the 80s (not the 70s with the exception of the later years of the decade as they appear to be just as awful as the mid 2010s as were the 1900s, 1910s, 1920s and 1930s for the most part) over the 90s any day.

And I'll leave you with this

"Whatever be the reason we have sets of mild Winters and sets of cold ones. At times so many mild seasons come together that people begin to speculate about "change of climate" and to lament over the "degeneracy of modern Winters" only to be reminded soon by a year such as last that we are still in the neighbourhood of the Arctic circle. It is more than likely therefore that before gliding into the next mild "cycle" we may have two or three Winters of more than average intensity"

Article published in the Glasgow Herald, 8th December 1879.

Sums up the extreme cold Winters from 2008-2013 perfectly, which means we'll likely get something similar again in the future. There is absolutely nothing new under the Sun.

Edited February 3, 2018 by Walsall Wood Snow

[WalsallWeather123]

On 01/02/2018 at 08:09, Jemma Croton said:

Good morning Walsall. Only 4 hrs and 1 run before you eat humble pie ?

Well my timing was a bit off but a huge backtrack by the models compared to a couple of days ago

[WalsallWeather123]

On 31/01/2018 at 12:31, shaky said:

Please please weirpig dont even bother entertaining this conversation!!i think he just trying to get a reaction out of everyone!!i find it quite amusing though lol!!spicing up the forum not that it needa spicing up!!but then again i could have egg on me face and it could all go tits up and walsall weather will be right!!

So you think I'm right then. Has been a huge backtrack. No major snow event and mild temps and only rain on Thursday 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Not sure how this week is being described as the "coldest so far this winter"?  Were we not down to -10 on 11/12/13 December last year?  

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Dewpoints are starting to drop here on East Coast was between 2c and 3c most of the evening now dropping its - 0.3c now 

[FENDER.]

3 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Let's be honest, nothing will ever satisfy you ever. Not even a decent snow cover in early December as you had this year satisfies you, which is strange as you have this strange idea that the 90s were brilliant. Well news flash with the exception of 90/91 and 95/96 this Winter is already as good or better in the Midlands than most if not all Winters besides those two, not to mention we've already had 3 or 4 Winters in the last 10 years which I would rather re experience than any 90s Winter round here, with the exception of 90/91. 

Seriously what keeps you interested anyway if you've got this impression that cold and snowy Winters are next to impossible.

I'd love time travel could be possible  because perhaps then you could relive the 90s  and truly see how worthless a decade it was overall for long lasting snow cover. I on the other hand would choose any Winter from 2008/09 to 2012/13 (besides 2011/12) over any Winter in the 90s (besides perhaps 1990/91) any day forever, so that's 3 or 4 versus 1. Also give me the 40s, 50s and 60s or the 80s (not the 70s with the exception of the later years of the decade as they appear to be just as awful as the mid 2010s as were the 1900s, 1910s, 1920s and 1930s for the most part) over the 90s any day.

And I'll leave you with this

"Whatever be the reason we have sets of mild Winters and sets of cold ones. At times so many mild seasons come together that people begin to speculate about "change of climate" and to lament over the "degeneracy of modern Winters" only to be reminded soon by a year such as last that we are still in the neighbourhood of the Arctic circle. It is more than likely therefore that before gliding into the next mild "cycle" we may have two or three Winters of more than average intensity"

Article published in the Glasgow Herald, 8th December 1879.

Sums up the extreme cold Winters from 2008-2013 perfectly, which means we'll likely get something similar again in the future. There is absolutely nothing new under the Sun.

What extreme cold winters, nothing extreme from 2008-2013 that I remember.  If I had to pick a decent decade it would have to be the 80s.  Some cracking winters then.  

[Walsall Wood Snow]

10 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

What extreme cold winters, nothing extreme from 2008-2013 that I remember.  If I had to pick a decent decade it would have to be the 80s.  Some cracking winters then.  

What the coldest Winter since 1978/79 in 2009/10, the coldest December since 1890 (which is the coldest December in the CET record going back to 1659) in December 2010 (making that the second coldest December in the CET record) and the coldest March since 1962 in 2013. None of that remarkable or extreme. Only if you choose to ignore it I suppose.

Edited February 4, 2018 by Walsall Wood Snow

[FENDER.]

And what happened in 2008 and 2011 and 2012.  I will give you 2009/10.  I wont however give you March 2013, as you said extreme winters, not just one month, plus some of march is spring anyway. So just extreme  winter during that period

Edited February 4, 2018 by Fender..

[Walsall Wood Snow]

20 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

And what happened in 2008 and 2011 and 2012.  I will give you 2009/10.  I wont however give you March 2013, as you said extreme winters, not just one month, plus some of march is spring anyway. So just extreme  winter during that period

Most so called severe wintry spells rarely cover the whole Winter anyway. Plus it doesn't matter if a severe spell of wintry weather occurs in Autumn or Spring either as it is still a severe wintry spell regardless. Plus it wasn't just March 2013, as January had a really good spell of snowy weather and February was pretty cold as well. In February 2012 we only missed a decent cold spell by a hairs breadth as well as Europe was plunged in the freezer and it just about gripped the East Midlands.

As for the 80s as good as some of those Winters were, not all of them were absolutely fantastic, with 79/80, 80/81, and 82/83, been probably pretty average and containing probably more mild weather than cold, with 83/84 probably been better, but more so for the north. 87/88, 88/89 and 89/90 were all mild to very mild Winters. That leaves 81/82, 84/85, 85/86 and 86/87 as the very best overall, but yet again only one of them had a cold December (81), 85 was good in Jan and Feb, 86 had a very cold Feb with the only sub zero and sub minus 1 month of the decade at -1.1( but it wasn't that snowy in central and western areas at all) and in 87 we had that classic cold easterly in Jan that seems to be well remembered, but even all that should be looked at in perspective for what it was, which was a fairly lengthy cold cycle on the back of a fairly long mild cycle in the 70s.

[FENDER.]

Whilst I appreciate all of that, it was the use of the words "extreme winters" that I questioned. I have checked and none of the winters from 2008-2013, would make the top 50 coldest winters since records began.  Some were below the long term winter  average, but certainly could not be called extreme.  Winters 1947 and 1963 are extreme

[Walsall Wood Snow]

25 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

Whilst I appreciate all of that, it was the use of the words "extreme winters" that I questioned. I have checked and none of the winters from 2008-2013, would make the top 50 coldest winters since records began.  Some were below the long term winter  average, but certainly could not be called extreme.  Winters 1947 and 1963 are extreme

Well maybe I should have been more specific then and maybe used the term 'spell of below average temperatures accompanied with snowfall'. Of course 1947 and 1963 belong in a different category. But in that case then none of the Winters in the 80s would have made the top 50 either.

[FENDER.]

No they didn't in terms of cold. and I don't have any records for snowfall, other than my memory. But I can remember, over a foot of lying snow, on a number of occasions in the 80s. proper power stuff as well, might have been 81 when, we were cut off for several days, and had lying snow for 3 weeks.  I did live in Staffordshire and in a rural location in those days.  IM not bothered about cold for colds sake, its snow that i like. My definition of a good winter is at least 3 falls of 4 inches or more, and at least 10 days of snow cover. 

[northwestsnow]

Poor ECM this morning.

Seems the models are not reading the script.

Not Exeters anyway..surely they will be stopping all this talk of easterlies soon as the PV looks to be stregthening out to mid Feb ..

Happy for those that get snow before the rain arrives thur...

Yet again im unlikely to see a flake as the gfs will likely be to progressive with tues front.

 

Edited February 4, 2018 by northwestsnow

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Poor ECM this morning.

Seems the models are not reading the script.

Doesn’t look great, does it.

The cold uppers for next week have been watered down so much, it’s now looking like day time highs will reach 4/5c, apart from Tuesday which is a little colder.

Just a bog standard cold spell next week.

Hopefully the beast will appear mid month and then the fun and games begin!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Doesn’t look great, does it.

The cold uppers for next week have been watered down so much, it’s now looking like day time highs will reach 4/5c, apart from Tuesday which is a little colder.

Just a bog standard cold spell next week.

Hopefully the beast will appear mid month and then the fun and games begin!

Its the same old song im afraid..the uppers are fine .. the problem as always is the block gets blasted away by the Atlantic in like 72 -96 hours so the cold doesnt bed in so to speak.

Exeters outlook looks very iffy to me this morning.

 

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its the same old song im afraid..the uppers are fine .. the problem as always is the block gets blasted away by the Atlantic in like 72 -96 hours so the cold doesnt bed in so to speak.

Exeters outlook looks very iffy to me this morning.

 

Let’s just hope they’re seeing something we’re not!

[Polar Maritime]

All looks very Wintry to me, As per Models..

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Feb 2018 to Saturday 17 Feb 2018:

After a cold and frosty start on Thursday, a band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to move slowly southeastwards through the day and possibly into Friday. Into the weekend, further bands of rain, sleet and snow are likely to push southeast across the UK. Thereafter, much of this period will remain colder than normal, with the risk of snow as further frontal systems bump in to the cold air and stall across the UK. In between, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers with the strongest winds in the north and west. Where winds fall light, there will be some severe frost. Towards the end of this period, it may turn more settled bringing more prolonged drier weather, with frost and fog becoming widespread.

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Feb 2018 to Sunday 4 Mar 2018:

Through the rest of February it will remain cold but the weather may be more settled with widespread frost and fog overnight. This looks set to last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. However, into the beginning of March, it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder and wetter spells may be fairly short-lived with temperatures generally staying colder than normal.

Updated: 01:05 on Sun 4 Feb 2018 GMT

Edited February 4, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

All looks very Wintry to me..

Looks very dry for most to me, before wind and rain move in off the Atlantic Thurs?

Granted it will be cold PM, for 3 or 4 days. 

I'm more bothered about the long term , cant see a hope in hell of that vortex disappearing for a good while, it probably will, just in time to ruin spring.

[cheshire snow]

@Polar Maritime

Agree not looking to Shabby is it

C.S

[Polar Maritime]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks very dry for most to me, before wind and rain move in off the Atlantic Thurs?

Granted it will be cold PM, for 3 or 4 days. 

I'm more bothered about the long term , cant see a hope in hell of that vortex disappearing for a good while, it probably will, just in time to ruin spring.

The whole Month is cold or very cold into Spring itself. With stalling fronts and severe frosts. Cheer up !

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

All looks very Wintry to me, As per Models..

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Feb 2018 to Saturday 17 Feb 2018:

After a cold and frosty start on Thursday, a band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to move slowly southeastwards through the day and possibly into Friday. Into the weekend, further bands of rain, sleet and snow are likely to push southeast across the UK. Thereafter, much of this period will remain colder than normal, with the risk of snow as further frontal systems bump in to the cold air and stall across the UK. In between, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers with the strongest winds in the north and west. Where winds fall light, there will be some severe frost. Towards the end of this period, it may turn more settled bringing more prolonged drier weather, with frost and fog becoming widespread.

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Feb 2018 to Sunday 4 Mar 2018:

Through the rest of February it will remain cold but the weather may be more settled with widespread frost and fog overnight. This looks set to last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. However, into the beginning of March, it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder and wetter spells may be fairly short-lived with temperatures generally staying colder than normal.

Updated: 01:05 on Sun 4 Feb 2018 GMT

I do hope thats right PM.

I just cant see it again this morning, and i fear it will downgrade today or tomorrow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I do hope thats right PM.

I just cant see it again this morning, and i fear it will downgrade today or tomorrow.

GFS best for cold on 00Z's, is hinting at possible sleet/wet snow, Fri and then Sunday

[cheshire snow]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I do hope thats right PM.

I just cant see it again this morning, and i fear it will downgrade today or tomorrow.

Go and have a sleep and chill out mate.

C.S

[cheshire snow]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS best for cold on 00Z's, is hinting at possible sleet/wet snow, Fri and then Sunday

Are you feeling ok this morning

C.S

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Go and have a sleep and chill out mate.

C.S