Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[knocker]

20 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Is an easterly coming? With Sydney burying his nuts I might take it more seriously this time

Rather depends on how you define easterly. If the definition takes into account a NE drift on the east side of a ridge and also an easterly component on the northerly circulation of a low with the possibility of snow showers along the east coast then quite likely. Sidney could sniff out the latter as the low sinks south over France and sneaks a SE into Cornwall briefly albeit not particularly cold. With a slack gradient and a cold pool thereafter the action will revert to a more usual direction.

Edited January 31, 2018 by knocker

[78/79]

Glad I ordered another load of logs now , best get a few bags of coal as well

[78/79]

Just had a look over at the other side, Brian Gaze has come off the fence slightly, it must have been digging in a bit

[northwestsnow]

RAMP ALERT!!!

GFS6z showing snow across the country on saturday!!

[CK1981]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

RAMP ALERT!!!

GFS6z showing snow across the country on saturday!!

Apart from the south.....no surprise there though ?

[Jeremy Shockey]

For Hull ......as usual ...its a case of " Cold to the left of me , Cold to the right , Here i am stuck in the middle with you "

[joggs]

I'll be honest,I just can't quite get excited yet because as usual there's a lot of uncertainty but a tad more believable than last time that we could get something notable.

I wt to see a great set up within t48.

[Bristawl Si]

No snow Sunday eve/Monday morn thank you; fly out of Birmingham airport to Mexico Monday morning.

Be just typical if real cold and snow arrives next week and i'm not in UK

Here's hoping for a late downgrade

[Hodgheg]

Been away from here for a while now. Didn't expect to see this. At least its not all at +180 hours away. Roll on the weekend. 

[reef]

59 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

For Hull ......as usual ...its a case of " Cold to the left of me , Cold to the right , Here i am stuck in the middle with you "

For once we're in the right place there. That milder area is a band of precipitation getting undercut in both directions by cold air. A similar setup delivered nicely in Feb 2012.

[Jeremy Shockey]

13 minutes ago, reef said:

For once we're in the right place there. That milder area is a band of precipitation getting undercut in both directions by cold air. A similar setup delivered nicely in Feb 2012.

I was only joking of course Reef . I agree this could be a very good set up for snow starved Hull and East Yorkshire 

[Malcolm Edwards]

39 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

No snow Sunday eve/Monday morn thank you; fly out of Birmingham airport to Mexico Monday morning.

Be just typical if real cold and snow arrives next week and i'm not in UK

Here's hoping for a late downgrade

I feel your pain as i think it may just happen this time even here in marazion.

 

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

2 hours ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

I agree as it's similar for Tenby Pembrokeshire between 6-9C and apart from light showers Saturday it's dry with sunny spells. Now that could be the result of an easterly as it often brings drier, sunnier weather to the west but as temperatures are measured in the shade not in direct sunlight, I'd have thought it would still be colder than suggested tbh

There is a front expected to push in on Saturday some models suggest some decent hill snow but low ground and the coasts look like getting rain (or perhaps sleet if we're lucky) lol

[northwestsnow]

just look at those 6z ens for london!!!

[Jemma Croton]

Quote didn’t attach. Doh

 

Edited January 31, 2018 by Jemma Croton

[WalsallWeather123]

1 minute ago, Draig Goch said:

There is a front expected to push in on Saturday some models suggest some decent hill snow but low ground and the coasts look like getting rain (or perhaps sleet if we're lucky) lol

Exactly. Even if we do get a colder spell it's being massively overplayed by the models

[Jemma Croton]

16 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

2013/14 was far far worse than this one for continuous cloud, rain, wind and mildness...I've never been so happy for a winter to end it really was that bad!...it felt like it went on for months unabated. 

Yes. This exactly. We had a puppy that winter and I was out with her every 20 minutes while house training and it was bloody dire

[frosty ground]

Just now, WalsallWeather123 said:

Exactly. Even if we do get a colder spell it's being massively overplayed by the models

Why not show a few charts to show us the reasoning behind your thinking? 

[WalsallWeather123]

The charts are showing a cold spell but I'm told by a couple of reliable weather guys that they expect them to backtrack in 24 hours. I'm an amateur myself but this is what I am being told 

[Lampostwatcher]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

The charts are showing a cold spell but I'm told by a couple of reliable weather guys that they expect them to backtrack in 24 hours. I'm an amateur myself but this is what I am being told 

any names

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

The charts are showing a cold spell but I'm told by a couple of reliable weather guys that they expect them to backtrack in 24 hours. I'm an amateur myself but this is what I am being told 

Hi Walsall  what is the source of your info? No need to name names but the organisation these reliable 'weather guys' come from might assist. Perhaps we could then analyse how the cold spell will fail.

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

The charts are showing a cold spell but I'm told by a couple of reliable weather guys that they expect them to backtrack in 24 hours. I'm an amateur myself but this is what I am being told 

Go on then, we're all ears? Unless they're called  Matt Eorologist and Noah Bluddyclue?

Edited January 31, 2018 by Johnp

[weirpig]

Its not the lead of the Stone roses is it?.   I guess we will have to see.   if they do flip at such a short range  then just shows  how far we have to go to accurately predict our weather.

[WalsallWeather123]

1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

any names

You won't know them. They are also amateur but very experienced. Anyway I might be wrong who knows. But caution is best until T72

[Jemma Croton]

3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

The charts are showing a cold spell but I'm told by a couple of reliable weather guys that they expect them to backtrack in 24 hours. I'm an amateur myself but this is what I am being told 

My dog tells me it’s going to verify and he knows his stuff