Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[CK1981]

Just now, cheese said:

As long as it doesn't rain, I couldn't care less. 

I don’t think any of us want rain, but some nice cold and frosty weather would make a nice change.

[Froze were the Days]

Temps running above normal in the south east - December was fractionally above normal and this month is running plus a degree above. When was the last time we had high pressure over the country?...seems a long long time ago, didn't happen in the autumn and didn't happen in the summer, probably have to go back to spring.

.

Edited January 26, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[Johnp]

1 hour ago, CK1981 said:

Unlike a lot of people in there who like to make others look stupid, it’s not my style to name and shame. Let’s just see how this all pans out. Like most, I’d love to see an easterly, but they’re like gold dust these days. Fingers crossed though ?

So that's a no then ?

[CK1981]

5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

So that's a no then ?

It’s not at all and if you’re another one of these who just wants to find fault, I suggest you ignore my posts and move along because it’s getting tiresome now!

If you care to read through the tread, you’ll see many posts which indicate an easterly is coming. I don’t see why I have to point them out or list the member names to indulge your pettiness.

 

Edited January 26, 2018 by CK1981

[Carl46Wrexham]

Whisper it quietly but for me the fat lady may not even be clearing her throat yet but she's definitely entered the building.

What have most of us had since the first half of December? Too much rain, an epic fail of probably the most hyped NW'ly ever, and now here we are near the fag end of January with the tell tale signs of a failing winter all too evident in the MAD thread with the Jam Tomorrow charts being posted..

Its not over yet but the signs sure as hell don't look good.

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, CK1981 said:

Unlike a lot of people in there who like to make others look stupid, it’s not my style to name and shame. Let’s just see how this all pans out. Like most, I’d love to see an easterly, but they’re like gold dust these days. Fingers crossed though ?

That's  a no then....

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

That's  a no then....

Not at all if you care to read above. The same applies to you.... 

[Seasonal Trim]

Just had a read through the MOD thread, and at no point has anyone said "there is an easterly coming". A few have posted charts of a possible easterly, but again none of those that have posted said charts have said that this is going to happen. 

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

Just had a read through the MOD thread, and at no point has anyone said "there is an easterly coming". A few have posted charts of a possible easterly, but again none of those that have posted said charts have said that this is going to happen. 

Agreed.Think Fergie tweeting about Glosea raised hopes but im afraid any long term model raising the spectre of heights to our NE is going to be wrong unfortunately.

In fact i personally would treat ANY model showing heights anywhere to our NE OR NW with extreme caution.

The Atlantic in this current cycle simply wont allow for heights needed to give us a decent cold spell( uppers -10 or below).

Some dont want to hear it but the goalposts have changed.

Edited January 26, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Interitus]

The CET (MetO) was 4.8°C in December 0.1°C above average, and is running at 5.1°C for January, 1.4°C above average (provisional to 24th - 1961-90 averages)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

3 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Temps running definetly below in this neck of the woods

Pershore was 0.3°C above average in December, currently 0.9°C above average in January (to 26th)

3 hours ago, CK1981 said:

It’s probably below average here too, we’ve just not seen anything that exciting.....yet!

Reading University 0.5°C above average in December, currently 1.2°C above average in January (to 26th)

Pershore and Reading data from University of Reading, based on 1981-2010 averages -

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/weatherdata/Reading_monthly_summaries.html

Edited January 26, 2018 by Interitus

[Froze were the Days]

Well done Interitus...that's cleared that up then.

[knocker]

This seems familiar.

High amplification upstream with active Vortex/trough resulting in strong upper westerlies across the Atlantic. But downstream the combination of positive anomalies Svalbard/western Greenland.with some ridging and the trough south of the UK leads to upper flow divergence and weakening thus the likelihood of a slack gradient over the UK

Edited January 26, 2018 by knocker

[Nath]

I just know that the cold being shown for early Feb is gonna get downgraded and disappear by this time next week. Happens almost every time lol

[knocker]

We've noticed an increasing use of the royal we of late, "What we crave" and in particular,"what we deserve" are common utterances. All we can say, with all sincerity, is we hope you get what you deserve.

Edited January 26, 2018 by knocker

[ciel]

40 minutes ago, knocker said:

We've noticed an increasing use of the royal we of late, "What we crave" and in particular,"what we deserve" are common utterances. All we can say, with all sincerity, is we hope you get what you deserve.

I have noticed this feature, not only here, but also on other threads in other sections of the forum as well.

[ANYWEATHER]

7 hours ago, Interitus said:

The CET (MetO) was 4.8°C in December 0.1°C above average, and is running at 5.1°C for January, 1.4°C above average (provisional to 24th - 1961-90 averages)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

Pershore was 0.3°C above average in December, currently 0.9°C above average in January (to 26th)

Reading University 0.5°C above average in December, currently 1.2°C above average in January (to 26th)

Pershore and Reading data from University of Reading, based on 1981-2010 averages -

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/weatherdata/Reading_monthly_summaries.html

Im afraid that's wrong , they always have a warm bias , in my  back garden its been below average,  I will check the stats out for my weather station when I get time.

[Interitus]

31 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Im afraid that's wrong , they always have a warm bias , in my  back garden its been below average,  I will check the stats out for my weather station when I get time.

Pershore College, official Met Office CDL site 99059, WMO SYNOP number 03529, one of the three sites used to compile the Hadley CET series...vs your back garden, hmm 

Edited January 26, 2018 by Interitus

[knocker]

Not bad agreement between this evening's ecm det. run and this mornig's anomalies,

Edited January 26, 2018 by knocker

[ANYWEATHER]

15 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Pershore College, official Met Office CDL site 99059, WMO SYNOP number 03529, one of the three sites used to compile the Hadley CET series...vs your back garden, hmm 

Lols Yes youre entitled to your opinion and I respect that. Ive been taking weather records for over 30 years and a lot of my data does not agree with the met -office . I think we have to agree that because the met-office dumps a weather station in a certain place , does not mean that its Gospel , in an era of Fake news and Data and this is nothing new , makes you wonder if the data we have received from years ago is accurate....Anyway lets bring on a snowstorm....

[knocker]

Further to my earlier post we consider that this evening's anomalies are very encouraging indeed.

[Mapantz]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

 they always have a warm bias

I'm smack-bang in between two official stations down here, so I took the temp/rain/sun hours from both of them, and derived an average that I can plot my own data against. If the Met Office are creating a warm bias, it must be completely wrong that i'm running 1.5°C above that January average? 

Edited January 26, 2018 by Mapantz

[davehsug]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Further to my earlier post we consider that this evening's anomalies are very encouraging indeed.

If I never have to look at another bluddy MJO chart again in my life, I'll be too soon. It would help if 90% had a clue what it meant. "MJO cyclinging into phase 50, if we can get it into 83 we'll be buried"

Rant over.

[Matthew.]

Is everyone ready to chase the potential easterly on the ECM in the morning

[Hodgheg]

Oh god please no. I can't cope. 

[cheeky_monkey]

35cm of fresh snow fall and -14c here...you can have it ..i would swap for +10c and drizzle right now..not looking forward to breaking my back shoveling a ton of snow of my drive after work