Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[knocker]

Now that's what I call a Slider. All the way from Hudson Bay to downtown Cairo. Oh my giddy aunt...................

Edited January 24, 2018 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Garbage output continues unabaited.

Unless 24 hour topplers are your thing.

Cant see any reason to change the thoughts that winter 17/18 is a write off, in fact it never really got started for the majority..

[Chris harry]

What a waste of money.

[Evening thunder]

4 minutes ago, Chris harry said:

What a waste of money.

Why is it a waste of money?

[CK1981]

31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Garbage output continues unabaited.

Unless 24 hour topplers are your thing.

Cant see any reason to change the thoughts that winter 17/18 is a write off, in fact it never really got started for the majority..

I have to agree with you. I know many are trying to sugar coat the output, but like most years, we’ll be chasing phantom easterlies until March. I for one do not want a cold spell in March because it’s a complete waste of time. Yes, 2013 was exceptional for some, but it wasn’t great down here. By the time we reach the end of February the sun is much stronger and it takes some pretty deep cold for any snow to hang around. If we don’t see anything of interest by mid February, it’s game over!

[Chris harry]

2 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Why is it a waste of money?

All that money and they still get it wrong.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I have to agree with you. I know many are trying to sugar coat the output, but like most years, we’ll be chasing phantom easterlies until March. I for one do not want a cold spell in March because it’s a complete waste of time. Yes, 2013 was exceptional for some, but it wasn’t great down here. By the time we reach the end of February the sun is much stronger and it takes some pretty deep cold for any snow to hang around. If we don’t see anything of interest by mid February, it’s game over!

yup-

While we can never say never im afraid those purples and blues have never looked like leaving their winter home- 

Virtually every single person i speak to from work mates to taxi drivers all say the same thing, what on earth has happened to our winters, and dont get me started on the summers, an utterly depressing climate in my locale.

100% no doubt in my mind the northern blocking will come in mid march to april which is as much use as a barbers shop on the steps of the guillotine -

I used to be like some in the MO thread- hoping and hoping and hoping.

Fraid we ar stuck in a rut of absolute tripe as far as winter is concerned (and summer for that matter altho the south obv will still do OK)-

Could all change come Nov/Dec (altho i doubt it), but for this 'winter', forget it.

Edited January 24, 2018 by northwestsnow

[draztik]

Is there no russian high knocking about.... wasnt that going to be the saviour of this event we call winter.... 

 

oh wait. oh well, onto the next chase.

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

yup-

While we can never say never im afraid those purples and blues have never looked like leaving their winter home- 

Virtually every single i speak to from work mates to taxi drivers all say the same thing, what on earth has happened to our winters, and dont get me started on the summers, an utterly depressing climate in my locale.

100% no doubt in my mind the northern blocking will come in mid march to april which is as much use as a barbers shop on the steps of the guillotine -

I do feel for you with recent summers. We’ve been quite lucky here in the south with some quite decent summers, but winters have been crap. I’ve seen 2 wet snowfalls this winter and on both occasions the slush melted within hours!

[Matthew.]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

yup-

While we can never say never im afraid those purples and blues have never looked like leaving their winter home- 

Virtually every single person i speak to from work mates to taxi drivers all say the same thing, what on earth has happened to our winters, and dont get me started on the summers, an utterly depressing climate in my locale.

100% no doubt in my mind the northern blocking will come in mid march to april which is as much use as a barbers shop on the steps of the guillotine -

I used to be like some in the MO thread- hoping and hoping and hoping.

Fraid we ar stuck in a rut of absolute tripe as far as winter is concerned (and summer for that matter altho the south obv will still do OK)-

Could all change come Nov/Dec (altho i doubt it), but for this 'winter', forget it.

Move to the Ne northwest, 8 days lying snow or quadruple that for parts of scotland

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Move to the Ne northwest, 8 days lying snow or quadruple that for parts of scotland

Yes scotland has done well, so they bloody should at their latitude!!

Yes, i for sure live in the absolute pits as far as regions go, crap summers (getting worse as well) and even worse winters - at least the South get a decent summer to balance the books.

Wind and god damn rain for NW England pretty much all year round..in fact a chap from Romania who i work with (only came over in 2016) asked me is this it?is this our climate? Hes never seen anything like it, think he is already suffering SAD.

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Garbage output continues unabaited.

Unless 24 hour topplers are your thing.

Cant see any reason to change the thoughts that winter 17/18 is a write off, in fact it never really got started for the majority..

Couldn't agree more!...first 2 weeks of December was promising but here in my locale the weather has been poor from just before Xmas, that being fairly mild (not to the degree of some recent winters), dull, fairly wet and windy at times - a normal boring British winter although some variations in some areas. Just to point out we haven't even had an air frost this January.   Looks like 5 winters now with no northern blocking and counting...

Edited January 24, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[Evening thunder]

21 minutes ago, Chris harry said:

All that money and they still get it wrong.

Of course they don't always get it right like everyone but what thing are you referring to that they've got wrong? They never went for a cold winter and their seasonal maps/contingency planners forecasts seem to have done quite well really.

Though there's lots of shorter term modelling that's important to forecasts/warnings, even if they don't show the charts that many want

[snowray]

25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes scotland has done well, so they bloody should at their latitude!!

Yes, i for sure live in the absolute pits as far as regions go, crap summers (getting worse as well) and even worse winters - at least the South get a decent summer to balance the books.

Wind and god damn rain for NW England pretty much all year round..in fact a chap from Romania who i work with (only came over in 2016) asked me is this it?is this our climate? Hes never seen anything like it, think he is already suffering SAD.

Did you not do very well from the cold zonality last week? Thought the NW was going to do best for snow out of that.

[Chris harry]

8 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Of course they don't always get it right like everyone but what thing are you referring to that they've got wrong? They never went for a cold winter and their seasonal maps/contingency planners forecasts seem to have done quite well really.

Though there's lots of shorter term modelling that's important to forecasts/warnings, even if they don't show the charts that many want

By spending all that money on something that should be faultless. Smoked logged thru cables overheating in this day an age. Come on. 

[Chris harry]

Anyway I've had my moan. I'm off to bed. Night peeps. 

[SLEETY]

Is there any chance just for a change that one of these mega cold gfs ensemble runs can verify ,they been churning these mega cold ensemble runs for days now.

no worry about marginality,it be powder snow for everyone ,and no melting after the snow has finished falling either,mega for everyone.

surely our luck has to change 

Edited January 24, 2018 by SLEETY

[Mr Frost]

Must be hell on Earth being a snow lover in England most years - unless you live  200 meters above sea level.

On the other hand it is hell on Earth being a lover of heat/thunderstorms up here in Scotland during Summer! 

It has been an unbelievable Winter here so far - some of the heaviest snow showers I have ever seen, endless days with snow on the ground and experienced Thundersnow for the first time in my life which was incredible. 

It has got to the point that if I don’t see anymore cold spells/snow I won’t really be too fussed - although I would love there to be more and also would like every snow lover on Netweather to get what they crave. 

Hopefully you all get whatever weather makes you happy for the remainder of Winter and I get some proper heat/thunderstorms from May onwards! 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2018 by Mr Frost

[trickydicky]

There seems to be a line somewhere around Lancaster across to Middlesbrough. South of this it’s been the worst winter since the last one and a continuation of the monotonous mild going back the last few years. North of that it ranges from not too bad and generally cold in the far north of England to a bit of a beauty in most parts of Scotland. 

[CK1981]

21 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Is there any chance just for a change that one of these mega cold gfs ensemble runs can verify ,they been churning these mega cold ensemble runs for days now.

no worry about marginality,it be powder snow for everyone ,and no melting after the snow has finished falling either,mega for everyone.

surely our luck has to change 

That’s the perfect chart, but unlikely to verify at that range. One thing I have noticed is the dwindling number of mega runs like this, which is only a bad sign in my opinion.

[Ice Man 85]

I think its time the last of the rampers in the mod thread woke up and smelled the coffee. The best we're going to get is 1-2c either side of average for the foreseeable. That unless someone does something about the azores high and its lovely SW dross.

[northwestsnow]

Glimmers of hope this morning but as ever its day 10 onwards..

I would just be happy to see some drier colder weather - insofar as deep meaningful cold is concerned its now or never for these FI charts- 

As an aside doesn't look great for those heading to the canaries over the next week or so with temps noticeably below average --

[CK1981]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Glimmers of hope this morning but as ever its day 10 onwards..

I would just be happy to see some drier colder weather - insofar as deep meaningful cold is concerned its now or never for these FI charts- 

As an aside doesn't look great for those heading to the canaries over the next week or so with temps noticeably below average --

And above average in the south ?

[knocker]

Global warming vs climate change

Quote

There have long been claims that some unspecificed "they" has "changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'". In reality, the two terms mean different things, have both been used for decades, and the only individual to have specifically advocated changing the name in this fashion is a global warming 'skeptic'.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-change-global-warming.htm

[knocker]

I understand the other thread is going to be renamed to, Cognitive Dissonance - the Movie.