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If you like coldweather dont look at gfs 00z!!

Absolutely dreadful.

Looking forward to seeing the yellows and oranges take over Greenland just in time for spring.

:crazy:

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21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If you like coldweather dont look at gfs 00z!!

Absolutely dreadful.

Looking forward to seeing the yellows and oranges take over Greenland just in time for spring.

:crazy:

Yes after the high pressure moves over us, it sinks south over Europe. If that happens I think I might hibernate! Of course we’d probably get a cold spring again lol.

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16 minutes ago, James M said:

Yes after the high pressure moves over us, it sinks south over Europe. If that happens I think I might hibernate! Of course we’d probably get a cold spring again lol.

Absolutely no doubt about that James!!

Another winter rolls on with blues and purples stuck to Canada/Greenland - as iv'e said, this year its la nina EQbo- last year i think it was El nino/WQbo.

Whatever combination we get results in the same mind numbing pattern, i suppose this time round the combo has allowed for cold episodes for Scotland but for the rest of us (bar the midlands event way back in December)- its utter dross.

Even the cold zonality over the last week or so has hardly been cold in our region, infact its been a hopeless fail.

 

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1 hour ago, James M said:

Yes after the high pressure moves over us, it sinks south over Europe. If that happens I think I might hibernate! Of course we’d probably get a cold spring again lol.

Of course we'll  get a cold spring. Ive booked me and the daughter  a lovely little cliff top caravan holiday in Cornwall  for 20th april. Wanted her to see the beautiful beaches........ ( and perhaps catch a glimpse of sydney of course!)

Edited by snowsummer
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

If you like coldweather dont look at gfs 00z!!

Absolutely dreadful.

Looking forward to seeing the yellows and oranges take over Greenland just in time for spring.

:crazy:

ECM op run looks better.

ECM op runs seems to be a lot less keen to build high pressure over the UK than GFS

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Just now, Weather-history said:

ECM op run looks better.

ECM op runs seems to be a lot less keen to build high pressure over the UK than GFS

Yes its better Kev.But then again being better than GFS is hardly difficult this morning. :)

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Actually not dissimilar to last evening's NOAA. The percentage play would be some influence from the Azores ridging but tending towards a N/S split.

610day_03.thumb.gif.f8a6e75dba77f29e07d062e0ce4e5446.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.b4a82cfe273401be6a74f53e58f7c821.gif

Good for the early dafs with nothing skulking in the woodshed

daffodils-b0fwm3.jpg

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One thing notable with the ext EPS is the strength of the Hudson Bay vortex. :shok:

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So we are now into the coldest period of the winter (roughly 20th Jan - 10th Feb), and as if by complete irony, we're potentially looking at 12C by Tuesday! If we're going to squeeze out a decent cold spell this winter I'd really want it before mid Feb. Models not looking too promising has to be said.

Boy I miss last January!

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Heavy and settling snow here (albeit a bit slushy). Second time that’s happened this winter here, so it’s already a better winter than many previous ones. Might be a positive sign for the next few winters to come? Definitely a lack of prolonged, very mild SW’ly winds this winter. 

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6 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Heavy and settling snow here (albeit a bit slushy). Second time that’s happened this winter here, so it’s already a better winter than many previous ones. Might be a positive sign for the next few winters to come? Definitely a lack of prolonged, very mild SW’ly winds this winter. 

Make the most of it!

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8 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Heavy and settling snow here (albeit a bit slushy). Second time that’s happened this winter here, so it’s already a better winter than many previous ones. Might be a positive sign for the next few winters to come? Definitely a lack of prolonged, very mild SW’ly winds this winter. 

Enjoy the snow! You southerners have nicked mine this time...it's usually those pesky Scots do that!:angry:

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Well, this will be the sixth time we've had falling and settling snow here this winter so far (albeit, 4 were dustings) so it's been great! It's a very interesting winter here so far, I've got a good feeling about February too. And even if it's rubbish, I'm sure most parts of the Midlands would be happy with the winter as a whole :-)

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any feasible way that the cold now will  not move and let the warm in? i heard it in the past that cold air can be stubbon to move out.  and sometimes not forcastable. 

or is the Ba**+&d Atlantic inevitable? 

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16 minutes ago, TyphoonNow said:

any feasible way that the cold now will  not move and let the warm in? i heard it in the past that cold air can be stubbon to move out.  and sometimes not forcastable. 

or is the Ba**+&d Atlantic inevitable? 

Afraid it's inevitable today. It can happen but not often.

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well hopefully we'll see some decent snowy weather for everyone before winter is out. many have seen some good snowy spells so far and most of the moaning has come from those of us who have seen little or none (like myself) up to now. in fact, the UK as a whole has seen more snow this winter than the last 5 years. 

whatever happens, there is a little crumb of comfort- i'm sure we all remember the winters of 2009 and 2010. these came during the last solar minimum which reached its low point in 2009. this is no coincidence, as it is well documented that we experience colder winters in periods of low solar output. during extended minimums or 'grand minimum', like the Maunder and Dalton minimums, temperatures can be dramatically lower. during the above two, we experienced the Little Ice Age and frost fairs on the frozen Thames respectively.

this year, solar activity has dropped dramatically and it is predicted we could be heading for another 'grand minimum'. the next minimum is due in 2020 and we are currently at 2008 levels of sunspots-

http://www.sidc.be/silso/dayssnplot

thats a year ahead of expected low levels! so far this year, we've had 7 spotless days, broken up by a few tiny sunspots. we could actually hit minimum a full 2 years ahead of schedule!

so, whilst this winter might eventually fail to deliver, don't be too despondent. i think we have some exciting times ahead. (if you like cold weather!)

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3 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Heavy and settling snow here (albeit a bit slushy). Second time that’s happened this winter here, so it’s already a better winter than many previous ones. Might be a positive sign for the next few winters to come? Definitely a lack of prolonged, very mild SW’ly winds this winter. 

As I said in my previous post, it has come down to regions and even counties. I've had 24 double-digit days so far this Winter, and not made it below zero in January. My own stats show a different story - worse than last Winter.

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53 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

As I said in my previous post, it has come down to regions and even counties. I've had 24 double-digit days so far this Winter, and not made it below zero in January. My own stats show a different story - worse than last Winter.

Seems to be an unusual situation? A big difference between my area and yours, we’re only 80 or so miles apart. 

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1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Seems to be an unusual situation? A big difference between my area and yours, we’re only 80 or so miles apart. 

Yep! I expect there's big differences at a smaller distance than that.

Make that 25 days of double-digit maximums! I've just hit 10.2°C :laugh:

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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Yep! I expect there's big differences at a smaller distance than that.

Make that 25 days of double-digit maximums! I've just hit 10.2°C :laugh:

Think I’ve only had a week of double digit maximums all winter so far. How odd. Like today, you’ve gone over 10C and here it’s barely scraping 5C.

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2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Yep! I expect there's big differences at a smaller distance than that.

Make that 25 days of double-digit maximums! I've just hit 10.2°C :laugh:

Looking at this map of temperatures in the Netherlands (virtually all flat and only 150km west to east)  can be interesting, sometimes there can be 15 degrees difference with isotemperature lines running just a few kilometers apart. Though today shows a pretty boring picture  (and in the northern states of the US temperature differences can be even more extrame)

 

https://www.weerplaza.nl/actueel/

 

 

Edited by ArHu3
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Clearly the Welsh have a different climate to that which I've experienced and understood all these years :D

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18 hours ago, James M said:

Yes after the high pressure moves over us, it sinks south over Europe. If that happens I think I might hibernate! Of course we’d probably get a cold spring again lol.

Last spring was very nice actually. We even had some of those big diurnal range days, including one day in April where the low temperature was 0C and the high temperature was 21C. I'd take a repeat quite happily.

Edited by cheese

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