Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Bristawl Si]

9 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

Looking good for those of us that's heading to Spain next week. 

Looks good for my landscape gardeners on their third week at chez BB

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

At least the lakes shouldn’t get any colder for an early spring start for open water swimming by mid April

Edited January 17, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[tight isobar]

Which is the more comical??..

Answers on a postcard..

Comedy gold!!!

[knocker]

Yes it really is hilarious when a fantasy verifies as a.............fantasy and an innocent bystander gets the blame in a fit of pique.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes it really is hilarious when a fantasy verifies as a.............fantasy and an innocent bystander gets the blame in a fit of pique.

Aye Malcolm. 

Whoever keeps forecasting Snowmageddon (and who cares about how that prognosis was arrived at!) is a 'hero in perpetuity', whilst those who called things correctly are regarded as 'spoilsports', 'negative thinkers' or what-have-you...

I guess that's why a 'great run' is nothing to do with whether it's correct or noty, but merely a reflection of how many putative 'snow events' it may contain!

[tight isobar]

25 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes it really is hilarious when a fantasy verifies as a.............fantasy and an innocent bystander gets the blame in a fit of pique.

Lighten up!

Its a bit of banter...in an,otherwise misrable world!?

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Lighten up!

Its a bit of banter...in an,otherwise misrable world!?

That's true, TI. But whenever anyone attempts to inject some levity into the MOD thread, it gets deemed 'off topic' and is removed tout suite, and gets removed...We can't have it both ways?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Lighten up!

Its a bit of banter...in an,otherwise misrable world!?

ignore that member, keep posts up TI, they liven thread up

[CK1981]

Back to mild westerlies next week, not that they ever really left the south. Apart from those in Scotland, this week’s ‘cold’ event was definitely over hyped for the majority of us. If we get to mid February and are still chasing phantom easterlies, I for one will definitely throw in the towel. This run of mild winters is becoming a joke in the south. I’m so glad I’m off to Estonia this weekend where it’s currently snowing ?

Edited January 17, 2018 by CK1981

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ignore that member, keep posts up TI, they liven thread up

Goddammit, I'm hurt to the quick.

[A.J]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Goddammit, I'm hurt to the quick.

how dare you post well-rounded, sound analysis of what the model output suites are actually showing as opposed to the general cherry picking of perturbation 46 of the navgem model at T6000 as fully 'nailed on' like we too often see 

[tight isobar]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

Goddammit, I'm hurt to the quick.

Not sure why but i read this post with an, american acsent!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

What's with the silly letters? not on mine at least (yet)

[knocker]

Anyway enough of this idle chit chat as there are increasing signs of the Azores taking closer order in the ext period and a nice little warm up might be in the offing.

[joggs]

Time for a break. I'll give it a week on the model thread before the Russian high makes a return 5000 miles away with an easterly on the way.

Europe simply has not been cold enough also this winter.

Looking forward to the best cold synoptics that will cone to fruition......................in May.

[shotski]

25 minutes ago, knocker said:

Anyway enough of this idle chit chat as there are increasing signs of the Azores taking closer order in the ext period and a nice little warm up might be in the offing.

Would that be the Copenhagen Azores in situ..................

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, Weather toad said:

Would that be the Copenhagen Azores in situ..................

Promise me you will buck up and stop mixing up the anomaly with a surface or 500mb chart feature. Still lovely south westerly zephyrs

Edited January 17, 2018 by knocker

[Hammer50]

We need the milder weather to take over for a bit so we can have a reset before the cold comes stinging in during February.So let's hope the high pressure continues to ridge northwards.

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All-

It’s been a poor few days - not helped in here by some people who may as well have the grim reaper following them around!

Whilst the Operationals & Ensembles don’t look that great I believe they are still being over progressive with eastward Atlantic progression & the ridge when it comes ( about 144-168 ) will be slightly better aligned - 

So whilst the medium period forecast has deteriorated I’m still positive that we will end up with a favourably positioned High pressure to the North east-

The ECM Op & control tonight are on a similar wavelength & judging by the UKMO 168 you would intimate that the 168-192 chart shows the ridge extending NE- although it may be hard to grasp what may be directly to our East / SE

heres the ECM day 10 control -

 

which is why Day 11/12/13 get colder & colder-

Anyway that’s my perspective .....

thanks

Well, who knows. I could be the grim reaper who fell into a barrel of t*ts and came up sucking his thumb but I cannot  recall a cold ecm control run ever verifying

[GeordieX9v]

End of the 18z GFS ?

[Ice Man 85]

GFS been worryingly consistent over the last few days. It seems the fat lady's throat has recovered after our last scare and she's about to belt out one hell of an aria...

Whilst its been a good ride, its time to get off methinks. The writings on the wall with this thread, as all but the most dedicated cold ramper have jumped ship. The end is nigh for winter 17/18 I fear.

[LetItSnow!]

2 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

GFS been worryingly consistent over the last few days. It seems the fat lady's throat has recovered after our last scare and she's about to belt out one hell of an aria...

Whilst its been a good ride, its time to get off methinks. The writings on the wall with this thread, as all but the most dedicated cold ramper have jumped ship. The end is nigh for winter 17/18 I fear.

I don't mean to sound rude but I think it's a bit silly to write off the entire winter as early as January 18th. C'mon...

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, LetItSnow! said:

I don't mean to sound rude but I think it's a bit silly to write off the entire winter as early as January 18th. C'mon...

Whilst I'd like to agree with you, I don't see anything other than SIGNIFICANTLY milder than average muck courtesy of the darling azores high on offer. Feel free to prove me wrong though.

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, - 40*C said:

That is just silly very silly to write off the rest of season at this point in high winter just because models don't see any sign of prolonged cold on the horizon. Go and look at the model charts from Jan/Feb 1991

Like I said, I'd LOVE to be proven wrong.

[Spikey M]

3 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Like I said, I'd LOVE to be proven wrong.

Do you understand the burden of proof?

if you want to declare Winter over in Mid January, while there is literally snow warnings in place, then you need to prove it. 

Edited January 18, 2018 by Spikey M