Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

Everything this winter has been  look at the chart t240 I do give up. 

Mild December Jan feb. 

Then cold easter and northerlies in the summer oh joy

Just hope when the 'cold' zonality arrives there will be sunny breaks, and selfishly winds will be W or WNW so I avoid washouts from NW'lys/NNW'lys through Cheshire gap streamers

whatever the direction though, flooding looks like an issue between Xmas and new year for mainly the north and west

Edited December 14, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Summer Sun]

Well the beeb are saying the deep low pressure to the NW which the models are showing is a low probability for next week at the moment

Plenty more to be resolved yet it would appear

Edited December 14, 2016 by Summer Sun

[DAVID SNOW]

The drip drip drip  of useless updates has lessened somewhat  recently... oh how I wish there were no more.........

[northwestsnow]

Winter 2016= 

 

Edited December 15, 2016 by northwestsnow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Winter 2016= 

 

most winter months since '99 ish

[knocker]

In view of recent trends I have concluded that there is a conspiracy afoot to drive current model discussion into the winter thread.

[knocker]

Get in there..............................

First winter Cornish daffodils for sale on roadside stall at Crowlas.

[Froze were the Days]

Amazes me just how many pages there are on the model thread!...not sure what everybody is looking at or expecting (probably the more correct word) but I see very very little of interest, just the same old rubbish we get most winters, just a slight sniff of Pm air. Over the last 4 winters we haven't even hardly had any topplers and associated brief Arctic air plunges...just sad times.

[knocker]

Who needs snow anyway.....................................?

 

[cornish snow]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

Get in there..............................

First winter Cornish daffodils for sale on roadside stall at Crowlas.

Nearly spring Knocker,shortest day next wednesday thank goodness. Like it cold in winter but hate the dark.Let there be light,i say

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Amazes me just how many pages there are on the model thread!...not sure what everybody is looking at or expecting (probably the more correct word) but I see very very little of interest, just the same old rubbish we get most winters, just a slight sniff of Pm air. Over the last 4 winters we haven't even hardly had any topplers and associated brief Arctic air plunges...just sad times.

Whenever I read your posts I hear Alan Partridge's voice. The way you describe your house in your location is very Alan too! Nice one.

[karlos1983]

Take me to Buffalo. Very jealous.

 

[Gord]

A real shame things have turned out this way so far. The outlook isn't great for cold but let's just think about the bigger picture a second,

A lot of frustration is coming from the fact that we are looking at the potential of a 4th rubbish winter, and after how horrible last year was I think there's a little sense of disbelief that we're having to go through it all again, Think about it though. It may not be delivering what we want but so far, this winter is proving to be very different to last year. We have already had several frosts and windy and rainy spells have been brief so far. 

We currently aren't staring down the barrel of constant Atlantic storms right now. So yes, December 2016 is proving to be yet another difficult winter pill to take. But the fact that it is different is ensuring that I'm not switching off from my weather interest completely. Maybe just dimming the lights for now. 

[JeffC]

3 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Take me to Buffalo. Very jealous.

 

I have a friend lives at Fort Erie not far from there and she was bemoaning the Snow storm complete with Thundersnow! They have ~ 10 inches apparently.
I suggested they send it here if they didn't want it!

[Bristawl Si]

I aint seen a flake yet! Even in the snowless 70s i'd usually seen a few flakes falling before Xmas. Our climate has really changed. It was never this 'bad'.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS 12Z is the type of run we're used to this millennium, Zonal hell from Wed 21st (a very wet day) until 384, just hope flooding isn't too bad, and dry windows are as long as possible, don't want places underwater to end 2016, I remember when I was little, flooding was a 1 in 50 year event, now in 2000's, kinda expect it every Dec to Feb

[Matthew.]

If the continued mildness persists enough December might finish above Novembers 5.6CET. If that happens the last 3/4 year Novembers will have lower CET's than their prospective Decembers

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I've already posted this as a status update, but I'm going to repost here in order to get more attention for the point I'm trying to make:

Would all members arguing that the Met Office "got it wrong" for late November and December PLEASE do some basic online research regarding probabilities.  Ian Fergusson has said several times that long-range models (GLOSEA etc.) are probabilistic NOT deterministic - they show the most likely scenario and enable the forecast and analysis people to assign rough probability estimates to different outcomes.  If you're umnable to accept or undderstand this and view them as such, stick to the NWP outputs we get for free up to around T+240!

On a side note, I have no idea why Ian, Tamara and a few others post in the Model thread (though I'm glad that they do so), as many posters moan, take shots at, and generally denigrate them, partly through ignorance and partly because they don't promise 6 feet of snow.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

It's a shame that many of the LRFs for this Winter (or at least December) look like going bust. Just goes to show how much they have to be taken with a pinch of salt and that they do fail from time to time. Though no doubt we'll all be looking at next year's LRFs in November and be expecting them to verify (myself included). It's a shame really though because they raised expectations that we would get a very different December to what's actually verified. If they had gone for mild, but it actually turned out cold and snowy, we would have been disappointed at the time of release, but when the real time weather occurred we would have been pleasantly relieved. It never seems to happen like that though does it. Not that I'm giving up hope for the whole of Winter mind, but it looks like it's going to be post New Year before anything cold and snow wise could happen. One thought I've had though is because the forecasts suggested a front loaded Winter with a milder end, you've got to wonder whether even that could be wrong and whether it could turn out the polar opposite of that, with the later part of Winter i.e. the second half of January and February been where the action may ultimately lie. As Weather History has pointed out before it's been many years since we've had a very cold February with both December and January and even November and March all containing very cold spells in relatively recent times. You'd think February's fortunes would have to change eventually. Thing is it's too far away to have any idea about and even January's prospects are still quite unforeseeable, especially after the first week. Anyway we've got to keep the faith for now and I'm still hopeful based at least solely on the admittedly unscientific 3 mild Winters sandwiched between 2 colder ones theory.

Edited December 15, 2016 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Norrona2015]

5 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Take me to Buffalo. Very jealous.

 

If snow and cold is your thing I'd suggest Revelstoke resort BC Canada. An astonishing 16.1 Feet of snow so far this season. The most snow of any Canadian resort.

http://www.revelstokemountainresort.com

 

[cheshire snow]

@Walsall Wood Snow

Good post,but you just know we will all fall for it again next year.

C.S

Edited December 15, 2016 by cheshire snow

[Froze were the Days]

6 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Whenever I read your posts I hear Alan Partridge's voice. The way you describe your house in your location is very Alan too! Nice one.

What I'm after this winter is zero degrees of pure British celsius...not going to ruddy get it! (maybe at night in the next few months). Off for a night time ramble now.

[WillinGlossop]

6 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Take me to Buffalo. Very jealous.

 

Last winter up here..... 21cm and thunder snow.....

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

If the continued mildness persists enough December might finish above Novembers 5.6CET. If that happens the last 3/4 year Novembers will have lower CET's than their prospective Decembers

It happened 6 times in the 1910s.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Another thing to consider is that even in mild Winters, isolated snow events aren't out of the question. In this location though the last 3 have been very poor in this regard. I've seen snowfall in all 3 (even the especially dire 2013/14, but that was just a brief shower that didn't settle, though the flakes were big) but the best i've got in that time was a thin slushy covering, both on Boxing Day evening 2014 and sometime last January. This has made those Winters especially bad, whereas even a day or two of heavy snow with a deepish cover may have redeemed them somewhat. We've had mild Winters before though which have given us at least some decent snow. I actually fondly remember the snow in late December 2001. It came down on the evening of the 29th and left a fair covering. It was followed by a few days of very cold weather, especially at night with freezing fog and hoar frost and the canal near here was frozen solid. It was still around on New Year's Eve as well and probably lasted to the 2nd of January. Yet it was a mild Winter overall. Other examples were late January or early February 2004 when we had a bit of a blizzard followed by very cold temperatures that night. Don't forget also Christmas Day evening 2004 with a cover still throughout Boxing Day. Also early February 2007 when we had a couple of days of snow with a fair covering that was enough for sledging and snowman building and such. Interesting note about that event was that the previous Winter of 2005/06 was actually colder but delivered much less snow wise here (though it did snow constantly one day but refused to settle). So it just goes to show that even mild Winters (and Winter 2006/07 was very mild) can still deliver, if not for very long. There's got to be young kids round here who can't remember March 2013 and therefore have no memory of what a decent covering of snow looks like except for films and pictures and stuff. Very sad. We've just got to hope that even if this Winter does end up mild (and I'm not saying it will) that we can get at least a short spell of decent snow at some point this time.