Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[davehsug]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

another Dave? CC bit of a pain, but SM etc know their stuff and liven the thread up

I'll have to agree to differ. I've been on the site too many years, as have you, it's not new. It's not inacurate either, because it's what the models are showing at the time, but there is a propensity to ramp up the expectations, and when it invariably goes the usual way, the unpleasantness starts because of the unreasonable hopes raised. I like to think after all these years I'm a reasonable judge of the models, and I only venture into the mod thread these days if there's something interesting possible, when I like to see the views of those I have learned to respect.I'm getting old & a bit cynical I'm afraid, I even catch myself saying "it's only the weather"

[ribster]

Got in from football to read the model thread, but decided I can't be bothered wasting my time on the last umpteen pages, simply puerile, moronic carnage in the main, with one or two exceptions...

GP had just posted at the time, so something worth reading...

Edited January 3, 2018 by ribster

[on the coast]

I think this might be the thread to read while the other is to be avoided at the moment as much as I like the cold.

Edited January 3, 2018 by on the coast

[weather_it_will]

It's the same every year.

Nobody is happy with the weather models predictions.

Obviously nobody got a new record for Christmas. (Don't they call them CD's or downloads now)

Edited January 3, 2018 by 'ColdIsBest'

[knocker]

At T132 the ecm has the front orientated N/S just west of Ireland and with the high pressure centred in NE Europe and ridging NE into Scandinavia the UK is more or less in a col. But as the front, and rain, edge east the southerly zephyrs are introduced. Oh my Sidney.

Edited January 4, 2018 by knocker

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Nothing verified of course, but is this good for team GFS? EC definitely trended that way on todays 00Z's, UKMO looks like going that way, but more likely halfway between the 2

[jvenge]

11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Nothing verified of course, but is this good for team GFS? EC definitely trended that way on todays 00Z's, UKMO looks like going that way, but more likely halfway between the 2

To be honest the treatment the GEFS got over the past few days from some very well liked posters was rather pathetic. Yet they are never called out on it, but those who muse over teleconnections are ridiculed after someone too dimwitted can't understand what they wrote.

Fun forum, eh?

[knocker]

Latest 12 Monday fax

[snowblizzard]

It's uncanny how the model that shows the best outcome in terms of very cold/snowy scenario is invariably the one that turns out to be wrong!

GFS was out on it's own at one stage and has taken a fair bit of stick from a few, but looks like it's called this one better than the others.

Of course, not settled yet but it's not looking good for prolonged cold & snow in UK.

Major winter storm & snow event developing in NE USA 

Great excitement over there!

Edited January 4, 2018 by snowblizzard

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, snowblizzard said:

 

GFS was out on it's own at one stage and has taken a fair bit of stick from a few, but looks like it's called this one better than the others.

 

No it hasn't. 

 

[78/79]

Cold  and dry , or warm and dry , either will do me,  a bit of snow would be nice to look at for a day or two. Just as long as this damn rain does one for a while, it's starting to get tedious, not to mention expensive.

[snowblizzard]

42 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

No it hasn't. 

 

True, still to be resolved.

I'm not saying GFS was accurate and has it nailed!

But, it did refuse to go down the long draw Easterly line with ridiculously low 850's

Some of the other models slowly moving towards GFS like resolution.

Mother Nature will sort it!

 

Edited January 4, 2018 by snowblizzard

[78/79]

Just had a look in the model thread, started to read through , and then lost the will to live, and gave up.  I like a good snow fall as much as anyone else, but not to the point of obsession.  Maybe if we had  a good blizzard  with sub zero temps for a couple or three weeks once in a while  then , it might , keep people happy. Mind you , having to work , and stay out in it for 8 hours a day , soon determines whether you really like it or not. 

[chris78]

Here we go again in the model thread, a run doesnt show what some people want and its 'just one run' 'its 10 days away' 'its a useless model'  but when just one run from a useless model 10 days away shows cold,  we can all get exited like giddy school children.     Its often very knowledgeable posters who join in these double standards....    a physiologist would have a field day in that thread.....cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias a plenty.  

 

[chris78]

5 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Just had a look in the model thread, started to read through , and then lost the will to live, and gave up.  I like a good snow fall as much as anyone else, but not to the point of obsession.  Maybe if we had  a good blizzard  with sub zero temps for a couple or three weeks once in a while  then , it might , keep people happy. Mind you , having to work , and stay out in it for 8 hours a day , soon determines whether you really like it or not. 

Incredible isnt it, in winter for most this isnt a weather forum, its a snow forum.  Its happened a few times whereby a really interesting period of weather at T - 24 is largely ignored, while members obsess over a slim chance of snow at T 360.

And the anger/depression in the regional threads when it doesnt deliver,  from people who live in places like me, where lying snow of any depth is probably a once in 20 year event.    Models are great, but when it comes to snow forecasting, in depth local knowledge is better, I never expect snow here, whatever the models say and my verification stats beat all the models. 

Lying snow is modelled (within semi reliable time frame) for my location maybe 3-4 ta winter for the last 10 years, how many times has it happened...once.

If you live in a snow starved area remain skeptical whatever the models say until you see it falling!    

[Buzz]

15 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Here we go again in the model thread, a run doesnt show what some people want and its 'just one run' 'its 10 days away' 'its a useless model'  but when just one run from a useless model 10 days away shows cold,  we can all get exited like giddy school children.     Its often very knowledgeable posters who join in these double standards....    a physiologist would have a field day in that thread.....cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias a plenty.  

 

That's a perfect summary of the situation. Year in year out it's the same and as a result of this I barely read the model thread any more, I tend to just skim over it and read the non-hyperbolic posts from the handful of experts who are brave enough to put their heads above the parapet.

Edited January 4, 2018 by Buzz

[mushymanrob]

with charts like this, there was never going to be a prolonged easterly . if little old me can understand that, why dont the 'knowledgeable'?

 

[alexisj9]

Believe it or not I expect the gfs to throw out a couple of great runs today akin to gem and ecm before. It' been moving towards them for a while. All to far out in these set ups. I personally not interested in anything past the weekend yet. 

Edited January 4, 2018 by alexisj9

[Tonyinhampshire]

Looks like a benign end to UKWinter after all, hopefully with early Spring. Concern about water levels. Some resovoirs runn at 33%.   2018 drought Year !

[Iceaxecrampon]

Salwick Lancashire

Coastal sleet.

[Troubleatmill]

11 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Salwick Lancashire

Coastal sleet.

And the other side of the river in Howick the same :(, why did anyone ever settle around here...never forgive parents for moving down from Caldbeck! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Looks like a benign end to UKWinter after all, hopefully with early Spring. Concern about water levels. Some resovoirs runn at 33%.   2018 drought Year !

Fearing a very wet spell, as troughs struggle to make it eastwards, stalling over the Midlands, flooding likely, in what looks like an autumnal January

[Buzz]

2 hours ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Looks like a benign end to UKWinter after all, hopefully with early Spring. Concern about water levels. Some resovoirs runn at 33%.   2018 drought Year !

Goodness me, is it March already? And here was me thinking it was only January 4th. I guess my calendar is two months out of date .....

[Dancerwithwings]

15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Fearing a very wet spell, as troughs struggle to make it eastwards, stalling over the Midlands, flooding likely, in what looks like an autumnal January

Fearing a very SNOWY spell, as troughs struggle to make it eastwards, stalling over the Midlands, HEAVY SNOW likely, in what looks like an VERY WINTRY January

Just a bit of fun....You know me.....SOUNDS MUCH BETTER THOUGH

Edited January 4, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[I remember Atlantic 252]

does sound better agree dancerwithwings even if wrong