Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 12k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

This is wrong on so many levels...

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London

    Why are folk obsessed about easterlies on the other thread. Even if we get one,and we probably won't anyway,have they not seen the temps on mainland and in eastern Europe?? Even Warsaw and Moscow are above freezing!!

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

    What's your point? I'm not a rabid coldie, but if quite a few models are showing an easterly flow, it is most certainly under the remit of the thread. Not that I agree with the binning of ensemble suits and whole models, which currently is ongoing in there.

    Not sure what your point is re Eastern Europe. It rained last night, therefore it can't possibly be sunny come Sunday? Are you suggesting the models haven't factored this in and that as any easterly comes (an if i might add) that it won't be cold? Are you complaining its not as cold as it might be if it were already cold elsewhere?

     

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Ok, lets ramp up this latest chart from GEM. Classic 47 set up. Deep cold over Britain, low pressure over France. Feed of moist mild air into Eastern Europe , clashes with the cold flow and produces a conveyer belt of snow  across the Southern North Sea  into Blighty and Northern France. Of course in 1947, the Easterly set up started much later in the winter season but the low over France never moved for weeks and  produced with deepest and most widespread snowfall across England and Wales of the last century. Ramp over !

     C

    GEMOPEU00_240_2.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    10 hours ago, SW1988 said:

    Why are folk obsessed about easterlies on the other thread. Even if we get one,and we probably won't anyway,have they not seen the temps on mainland and in eastern Europe?? Even Warsaw and Moscow are above freezing!!

     

    yes you are right. its looking cold and raw at the worst currently, theres no deep cold pool to tap into.

    so many are being lead up the garden path yet again.

    but it must be said that the great beasterlies of the past often took a while to establish after a couple of weeks of messy synoptic charts which dallied with high pressure somewhere to the north of the uk. there must be a strong chance that a beasterly proper will develop later this month.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    Since I only enjoy significant cold weather events, I've been watching this develop with interest.

    Gut instinct is we'll see a gradual convergence over the next couple of days, and a watered-down/curtailed variant of the Euro's will be the net result. From there is anyone's guess, but I'm unconvinced this initial phase will bring much of note other than noticeably lower temps than of late.

    Whilst GFS vs Euros is more likely to favour the Euros, wherever there's significant disagreement, the difference is normally split. Blocking too robust from ECM, energy too vigorous from GFS in the +144 area. I'm an absolute novice (even after 12+ years of lurking!), but that seems to me the most likely outcome.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County

    Excellent viewing over on the model output page..been watching it evolve for the past few days..but suddenly seems to be taking a turn for the worst having read the last few posts/opinions on there...??...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    Still too early to say, but I think the halfway house solution is starting to develop which, when it comes to Easterlies and their all-or-nothing nature, isn't good news in the short term.

    Shame, but not totally unexpected given the expert opinions on here of late.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

    Looks to me like we'll just get a slightly chilly High, but that in itself is a welcome change from the interminable wind and rain.

    Edited by Buzz
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
    2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    Another classic failed Easterly!

    But, I expected nothing else!

    On the bright side, at least this one looks like slipping away at 144+, and with model disagreement to temper expectations.

    Much better than a cross-model agreed straight Easterly with -10 uppers at +72/96 which goes up in smoke! 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    32 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    Another classic failed Easterly!

    But, I expected nothing else!

    have a feeling GFS may have modeled this the best, UKMO following GFS on 12Z's bringing normal January weather by Tuesday, expect EC to trend towards GFS

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

    I'm looking at different models again. A few of mine still show an easterly. They are also clearly a "downgrade".

    Maybe if I keep refreshing.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

    Much pouring of oil on to troubled waters by the "knowledgable" posters. Why they are still so poular I don't know. They've led more trips up the garden path than my dear old mum on a showery washing day.

     

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
    18 minutes ago, davehsug said:

    Much pouring of oil on to troubled waters by the "knowledgable" posters. Why they are still so poular I don't know. They've led more trips up the garden path than my dear old mum on a showery washing day.

    A bit unfair as some of them do post some relevant comments however as you say Cold is their priority and sometimes can often let them down a bit. 

    18 minutes ago, davehsug said:

     

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    another Dave? CC bit of a pain, but SM etc know their stuff and liven the thread up

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

    This could slow the Atlantic down. 

    Warming America could mean a cooling Europe. 

    0678064D-05F1-41D5-AB53-4184F0A572C2.jpeg

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Pretty good T156 EPS mean with a light SSW flow and average temps. Oh my giddy aunt. And to boot no trigger slider, or glider, shortwaves waiting in the wings.

    Edited by knocker
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    16 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Pretty good T156 EPS mean with a light SSW flow and average temps. Oh my giddy aunt. And to boot no trigger slider, or glider, shortwaves waiting in the wings.

    Keep taking the happy pills :D:D

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    Good evening all, well after reading posts in the model thread for a few days now that cold is comming, i look through the forecast from a imby perspective and there is not a jot of cold weather comming, lowest temp of 4c on saturday before temps start to rise again for midweek.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, sparky1972 said:

    Good evening all, well after reading posts in the model thread for a few days now that cold is comming, i look through the forecast from a imby perspective and there is not a jot of cold weather comming, lowest temp of 4c on saturday before temps start to rise again for midweek.

    on GFS yes that will happen, GFS is suggesting cooler weekend then normal mild from Tues

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham. Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham. Essex

    Just been speaking to my brother in law who lives in Grimsby Onterio

    One hour from Toronto and its -6c  mid afternoon with six inches of snow

    On the ground. They are now being  warned of a powerful nor Easter in the next  few days

    with a low of - 25c and a wind chill of -40c....now that's cold

     

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, bonkers or not, I'll no' be torturing myself with tonight's 18Z...Life's too short as it is, and model-induced hypertension is the last thing I need!

    Night all!:good:

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...