Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Alicol said:

Rain is something we see all year round, gets a little boring watching the models to see when a bit of rain and wind is going to move in.

Not if you're going to be directly under a 'bit of rain and wind' and suffered the devastation that flooding can cause. 

 

Or indeed the devastation the wind can cause. Been scared of wind since 87.

[Mokidugway]

13 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Or indeed the devastation the wind can cause. Been scared of wind since 87.

Sprouts alexis 

[Big Dave]

I fly to Dubai for work on Monday evening. Therefore cold and/or snow nailed on for far south east.  ☹️

[Frosty_wsm]

57 minutes ago, John88B said:

The Jan 82 battleground situation created a two day blizzard over S Wales, the South West and West country with deep, deep snow and intense cold for days after.

And some people act like the south west is the worse place to be for snowfall, in some battleground scenarios it can in fact be the best place to be! 

[John88B]

19 minutes ago, Smartie said:

And some people act like the south west is the worse place to be for snowfall, in some battleground scenarios it can in fact be the best place to be! 

I remember the Jan 82 blizzard well. We were living in a lowland area just north of Bristol and were snowed in for a week by 10 foot snow drifts. Just over the bridge in Newport had a measurement of 80cms of level snow. An incredible event.

Yes the South West can be well placed for big snowfalls when conditions  are right. Hoping to see another such event soon!

 

[law of averages]

17 hours ago, 78/79 said:

I can recall those as well Mushy, from about 1971 through to 78  I think. I also think the 80's in a way were better, not just for the cold and snow, but also in the absence of the great god computer, we had to wait for the country file farmers forecast on a Sunday lunchtime. I t was always great when the  Michael Fish , et al used to forecast much colder weather for the week ahead. If it did'nt happen , then you would forget about it until the next week. We did'nt have the means, unlike now, of poring over every computer run .   In the absence of centrally heated houses, you certainly knew all about it when the Beast did come a calling.

Yes I totally agree... we had no central heating in our house, just 3 storage heaters... stupidly placed, lol... single glazed windows, so when it got very cold the windows ICED UP as much inside, as out... the amount of blankets we used in winter and a hot water bottle were the RULE of the house lol... and in the mid 70s, with power strikes ( Tele going off air about 5pm, if I remember... using a camping stove to cook food and keep warming!! ) it was unbelievably cold inside as well... if anything similar happened in today's age, power strikes and xtreme cold... how would those below 40/45yrs of age, managed lol... it would be interesting 

[Tonyinhampshire]

New York wind chill - 30 with dusting of snow, 2 inches.

[MP-R]

3 hours ago, Smartie said:

And some people act like the south west is the worse place to be for snowfall, in some battleground scenarios it can in fact be the best place to be! 

Largely down to ignorance methinks. They seem to forget we get more precipitation in this part of the country (normally), so add sufficient cold to the mix and bingo!

[cheese]

34 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Largely down to ignorance methinks. They seem to forget we get more precipitation in this part of the country (normally), so add sufficient cold to the mix and bingo!

And that happens how often, exactly? In a typical year the South West of England probably is the worst place in the country for snow. 

[MP-R]

6 minutes ago, cheese said:

And that happens how often, exactly? In a typical year the South West of England probably is the worst place in the country for snow. 

Generally happens every few years. Granted, Cornwall and at least south Devon have a hard time, but elsewhere is a different story. From what I gather, the south coast, the southeast and more coastal parts of the northwest tend to come off worse.

[cheese]

11 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Generally happens every few years. Granted, Cornwall and at least south Devon have a hard time, but elsewhere is a different story. From what I gather, the south coast, the southeast and more coastal parts of the northwest tend to come off worse.

I think you have it the wrong way round, the South East is much better for snow on average. 

[MP-R]

28 minutes ago, cheese said:

I think you have it the wrong way round, the South East is much better for snow on average. 

When snow comes from that direction, yes indeed. Now how often does that happen lol. 

[cheese]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

When snow comes from that direction, yes indeed. Now how often does that happen lol. 

Probably more often than the SW of England gets blizzards and feet of snow, I reckon. Yes, I think I would rather spend a winter in Kent than in Somerset if it's snow I'm concerned about.

Anyway, call me crazy but I'm actually looking forward to spring now.. and especially summer!

Edited December 31, 2017 by cheese

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the matter is confused by there being rather more high ground in the south-west than there is in the south-east.  This gives an impression of the south-west being snowier, especially with the greater precipitation amounts and upland areas sometimes ending up on the "snow" side of marginal- at 300m in Dartmoor the frequency of lying snow is similar to Durham's for example.

But if you compare locations at <100m you'll generally find that while the south-west and south-east tend to have a comparable frequency of snowfall, in the south-west it is far less likely to stick around.  On rare occasions lowland Devon can be heavily hit by frontal battleground events, as per February 1978 and January 1982, but these are pretty rare- most of the time the snow on the northern flank of the systems ends up further north/east.  The south-west is also sheltered from North Sea-generated snowstorms in easterlies (which soimetimes give the south-east significant periods of lying snow) and tends to be on the warm side of marginal in most northerly/north-westerly outbreaks when wintry showers fire in off the Irish Sea, with just rare exceptions such as 17/18 December 2010.

I recall it being a similar story when comparing the North East and Cumbria- Cumbria might come across as snowier because of its generally higher elevation, but at places like Carlisle, the snow rarely lies for long, whereas at places like Newcastle it will sometimes stick around for a while.

[shotski]

Happy new year all. 

Did Knocker get some green and blue crayons for Christmas ?

 

[78/79]

The combination of a bitter East/N/E wind and frontal systems trying to move in have delivered  on quite a few occasions , but as has been said already , n/w marginal events really only deliver on the Mendips, Quantocks Exmoor etc  , about 900 ft a.s.l. I think back in 47, and 63 it was snowier here than in some other parts  of the country.

[Frost HoIIow]

20 hours ago, cheese said:

And that happens how often, exactly? In a typical year the South West of England probably is the worst place in the country for snow. 

If one wants to avoid cold and snow then somewhere like Penzance would be the place to live, also if heat is what you want then it does poorly for that too. The sun is quite strong down there though in summer so I guess high teens and low 20s in that sun would feel good. 

[knocker]

Takes me back a day or two for a similar scenario

http://www.xmetman.com/wp/2017/03/28/29-30-march-1952-heavy-snow-and-blizzards-in-south/

Edited January 1, 2018 by knocker

[chris78]

As usual the model thread is full  of people complaining about posters discussing a breakdown. It seems it's ok to discuss cold, or storms or snow shown by any model at any time frame but discuss a breakdown and you are some sort of fantasist.   It's the same with will it won't it cold snaps, it's fine to get excited about one cold run, but mention a mild run and you aren't looking at the big picture.  

[davehsug]

Reading some of the hysteria on the mod thread, I just took a look at the ECM. Am i missing something?

[SLEETY]

Overhyped at moment as usual

[Catacol]

3 hours ago, 78/79 said:

The combination of a bitter East/N/E wind and frontal systems trying to move in have delivered  on quite a few occasions , but as has been said already , n/w marginal events really only deliver on the Mendips, Quantocks Exmoor etc  , about 900 ft a.s.l. I think back in 47, and 63 it was snowier here than in some other parts  of the country.

Spot on. 2 different worlds - Exmoor and Dartmoor on one planet, lowland SW on the other. I have a good friend on Exmoor - he sees snow regularly. 20 miles down the hill in Wellington and we haven’t seen any since 2012... and in the 10 years 1999 to 2009 one unusual fall in November 2005 I think it was from cold NW. Anyone thinking lowland SW England is ok for snow is bonkers. If conditions are just right with a continental sourced undercut then all is good. Otherwise sleet and wet snow showers that melt in 5 mins are pretty much it.

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Spot on. 2 different worlds - Exmoor and Dartmoor on one planet, lowland SW on the other. I have a good friend on Exmoor - he sees snow regularly. 20 miles down the hill in Wellington and we haven’t seen any since 2012... and in the 10 years 1999 to 2009 one unusual fall in November 2005 I think it was from cold NW. Anyone thinking lowland SW England is ok for snow is bonkers. If conditions are just right with a continental sourced undercut then all is good. Otherwise sleet and wet snow showers that melt in 5 mins are pretty much it.

Ah but I remember it well

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/84816-heavy-snow-in-devon-and-cornwall-1955/

 

Edited January 1, 2018 by knocker

[Jason M]

52 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Reading some of the hysteria on the mod thread, I just took a look at the ECM. Am i missing something?

No I don't think you are. All looks pretty much a bog standard spell of rather cold weather coming IMHO albeit there is some scope for upgrades given the scenario.  

[Snow Slave]

23 hours ago, cheese said:

I think you have it the wrong way round, the South East is much better for snow on average. 

Im in the south east corner and we have had no laying snow for 6 years if it doesn' snow this year!