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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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13 hours ago, Law of averages!! said:

Sorry met office, HAHAHA... Yes 25/30yrs is not wrong, hardly any if at all snow is not wrong in my neck of woods at the foot of the pennies in Shaw Oldham and that's late 70s early 80s till 2007 and we've had more in that period since 2007!! One part of climate change/GW... if the lungs of the earth the rainforests of South America, Africa over to Asia if they have had an effect, what about the VAST FORESTS of Russia, Canada and maybe Sweden, Norway, Finland that have been cut down in the last 50yrs or so wouldn't that have an effect on the arctic into EUROPE and UK... were once stood VAST wind breakers that sent winds etc into the arctic or into EUROPE, just a thought... it may have 

What about the Antarctic... hardly any melted, in fact it's grown in some parts, is that climate change/gw 

You've lost me... The vast forests of the northern hemisphere haven't been lost in the last 50 years, since 1900's they have been managed as commercial plantations, still cover cira 70% of the land and have never been as important as Rain Forests which are the true lungs of the planet. I'm not sure they have ever been regarded as wind breakers. 

Yes the Jet is a primary driver for the UK, but what impacts the jet? and is the jet as important for other locations?

May i suggest that using 1976 in isolation as a base is always going to skew your view and does little to further your point. Dec 2010  was epic for cold, the rest of that winter was not exceptional. I am am intrigued by the winter prospects in 18/19 and 20/21 due to low solar activity, but i would not dispel increasing evidence that the planet is warming as a whole and that the climate is changing as a result.

 

 

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A question regarding the MJO and all that:

I'm at a bit of a loss as to know just how one is supposed to exploit teleconnections; not in that I have no idea at all about what they are, but how I should apprehend them...?:cc_confused:

Am I right in seeing them as factors that predispose the atmosphere (in a broadly similar way to how possession of certain genomic mutations predisposes individuals to certain types of cancers - but in no way guarantees it) to adopt certain patterns, but doesn't guarantee them...?:cc_confused::cc_confused:

Or am I just in imminent danger of disappearing up my own fundament!:cc_confused::cc_confused::cc_confused::shok:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Been enjoying the exchange on teleconnections in the model thread today. 

I sometimes feel model watching resembles a lot of people shooting at different moving targets at different distances, involving weapons rangeing from long range missiles ( the telecon boys) to pea shooters (GEM), then marking their own scoresheet and finally having a good old bust up about who did best. :rofl:

There is generally some agreement on T+0. :)

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Professional meteorologists,. many with Ph.Ds  in Tropical Meteorology or Atmospheric Sciences as well as years of experience, use teleconnections in their forecast because they are a vital ingredient in the available tool box, The fact that they are often not successful is irrelevant as this is merely part of the scientific learning curve in a hugely complicated scientific discipline. To denigrate their current use and the importance of them to improving future forecast is ridiculous and I find it very difficult to understand why we are even having this debate in what is supposed to be a scientific forum. I'm a relative newcomer in here and this not the first time it's come up.

Edited by knocker
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6 hours ago, beatpete said:

You've lost me... The vast forests of the northern hemisphere haven't been lost in the last 50 years, since 1900's they have been managed as commercial plantations, still cover cira 70% of the land and have never been as important as Rain Forests which are the true lungs of the planet. I'm not sure they have ever been regarded as wind breakers. 

Yes the Jet is a primary driver for the UK, but what impacts the jet? and is the jet as important for other locations?

May i suggest that using 1976 in isolation as a base is always going to skew your view and does little to further your point. Dec 2010  was epic for cold, the rest of that winter was not exceptional. I am am intrigued by the winter prospects in 18/19 and 20/21 due to low solar activity, but i would not dispel increasing evidence that the planet is warming as a whole and that the climate is changing as a result.

 

 

You've lost me, also... Yes we have lost VAST FORESTS in the areas I've spoken of, which acted as a WINDSHIELD... winds that once helped our winter's, have been guided else where... I wouldn't say I've the knowledge to the ins and outs of the mechanics involved!! I remember watching a programme on bbc1, with my father i was about 15 at the time, think it was late 70s/ early 80s, it was hosted by the bloke who did ' tomorrow's world at the time ' and I'm sure it was a prelude to the hysteria/hype of global warming... and it mentioned that winds we got from a certain direction in winter was being lost by commercial deforestation in the countries mentioned, as they were being directed else where, as the once windbreakers had gone... maybe they are being grown again but to get back we're they once where, would take a very long time, I'm sure... but that said I'm still in the opinion of pattern, instead of GW/climate change, and history as shown patterns before and will in the future... regardless of the topic!!

Also for every 10 scientists who say GW... there's same amount who dispel the theory... and like President trump as already said what about what's happening in the good ole U.S of A at the moment, must be GLOBAL COOLING...lol

As I don't know your age but not really bothered, I assume your under 40 I'd say so you'll believe in the propaganda of GW... like I said Antarctic is growing, so sure that would be melting as well the North but that's not the case.... so it's global warming in UK/ EUROPE but global cooling else were

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6 hours ago, beatpete said:

You've lost me... The vast forests of the northern hemisphere haven't been lost in the last 50 years, since 1900's they have been managed as commercial plantations, still cover cira 70% of the land and have never been as important as Rain Forests which are the true lungs of the planet. I'm not sure they have ever been regarded as wind breakers. 

Yes the Jet is a primary driver for the UK, but what impacts the jet? and is the jet as important for other locations?

May i suggest that using 1976 in isolation as a base is always going to skew your view and does little to further your point. Dec 2010  was epic for cold, the rest of that winter was not exceptional. I am am intrigued by the winter prospects in 18/19 and 20/21 due to low solar activity, but i would not dispel increasing evidence that the planet is warming as a whole and that the climate is changing as a result.

 

 

 

6 hours ago, beatpete said:

You've lost me... The vast forests of the northern hemisphere haven't been lost in the last 50 years, since 1900's they have been managed as commercial plantations, still cover cira 70% of the land and have never been as important as Rain Forests which are the true lungs of the planet. I'm not sure they have ever been regarded as wind breakers. 

Yes the Jet is a primary driver for the UK, but what impacts the jet? and is the jet as important for other locations?

May i suggest that using 1976 in isolation as a base is always going to skew your view and does little to further your point. Dec 2010  was epic for cold, the rest of that winter was not exceptional. I am am intrigued by the winter prospects in 18/19 and 20/21 due to low solar activity, but i would not dispel increasing evidence that the planet is warming as a whole and that the climate is changing as a result.

 

 

Yes I agree totally on the jet I've never said otherwise in about the 8yrs I've followed this forum, that's why we get more than our fair share of mild winter's... but even that's down to patterns, drops to our South and stays there... helps us no end for cold ( I know other things have to fall in place as well ) but stays to our North, normally game over

I'm ending this topic on GW, you have your beliefs... I've got mine

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10 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

...... seems theres growing evidence now that the scenario described above might actually happen.  the outlook into the new year certainly isnt mild, and transitory snow events might well occur. this has a very 'mid 80's' feel about it, and both 85 and 86 delivered a beast from the east.

like your optimism, but cannot see it happening, difference is, it's not 80's anymore, E'lys seem a thing of the past

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I love it when someone says ' thing of the past ' ' or we don't get them any more ' haha, xcellent 

My brother in law said this around 2005, when he moved home to an higher area in Shaw were we live and I mentioned what about when it SNOWS, his reply ' oh we don't get snow like we used too!! '... and what happened 2007 it snowed heavy, 2009 and 2010 they were snowed in, LMAO

Also in, I think... in 2001 the SCIENTIST, who said in the papers and on tv... will the UK and Europe ever see snow again... if he's a scientist, I'm a monkey's uncle... you can't make this up... lol

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12 hours ago, knocker said:

Professional meteorologists,. many with Ph.Ds  in Tropical Meteorology or Atmospheric Sciences as well as years of experience, use teleconnections in their forecast because they are a vital ingredient in the available tool box, The fact that they are often not successful is irrelevant as this is merely part of the scientific learning curve in a hugely complicated scientific discipline. To denigrate their current use and the importance of them to improving future forecast is ridiculous and I find it very difficult to understand why we are even having this debate in what is supposed to be a scientific forum. I'm a relative newcomer in here and this not the first time it's come up.

Of course the teleconnections are important. Where the problem lies is that the professionals understand the difference between the significance of effects and their magnitude.The influence of the tropics accounts for a proportion of the variance of extratropical weather and climate patterns, not all (estimates vary but for our neck of the woods maybe <30% at most) which can only be used predictively in terms of tendencies and probabilities. And even when a particular outcome is as expected from a teleconnection, it doesn't imply causation. Typically the effects may excite or interfere with the existing flow patterns and investigation of, or proof of causes requires deeper analysis than using a few composite charts.

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19 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Of course the teleconnections are important. Where the problem lies is that the professionals understand the difference between the significance of effects and their magnitude.The influence of the tropics accounts for a proportion of the variance of extratropical weather and climate patterns, not all (estimates vary but for our neck of the woods maybe <30% at most) which can only be used predictively in terms of tendencies and probabilities. And even when a particular outcome is as expected from a teleconnection, it doesn't imply causation. Typically the effects may excite or interfere with the existing flow patterns and investigation of, or proof of causes requires deeper analysis than using a few composite charts.

Thanks Interitus, that's precisely what i meant to say :)

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Absolutely no chance of sustained cold (severe) into UK or Europe with current NH pattern!

But, marginal wintry outbreaks especially Midlands Northwards are likely to continue for the next couple of weeks.

So, mostly on the colder side of average with milder interludes.

Very different to the past few winters.

Most long range models going for much milder pattern from mid January into February?

Much of USA stuck in a cold rut!

Very interesting model watching.

 

 

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I keep asking myself is this winter much different to 2014/15? The only thing I can think of is the troughs are having a nw-sw tilt at times with more amplification to the west in general so giving marginal snow events with the jet a touch more meridionel 

Edited by Matthew.
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18 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

I keep asking myself is this winter much different to 2014/15? The only thing I can think of is the troughs are having a nw-sw tilt at times with more amplification to the west in general so giving marginal snow events with the jet a touch more meridionel 

Yes- its essentially a zonal pattern but with a slight tilt to more PM incursions,there have been some wintry days up here but i do wonder if the warming oceans (the Atlantic in particular) have meant what would have been a very snow setup 30 years ago has been diluted due to the above?

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Why do some people anticipate the next chart as they start to come out (normally ECM and say "expect a superb chart" or "this wiil bring this in" etc usually at the 192-240 hr timeframe? Year after year the same member does this and each time they end up with egg on their face.

When they say this, I'm 90% certain that the next chart will not be that or as good as they make out.

 

Edited by Weather-history
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15 hours ago, knocker said:

Professional meteorologists,. many with Ph.Ds  in Tropical Meteorology or Atmospheric Sciences as well as years of experience, use teleconnections in their forecast because they are a vital ingredient in the available tool box, The fact that they are often not successful is irrelevant as this is merely part of the scientific learning curve in a hugely complicated scientific discipline. To denigrate their current use and the importance of them to improving future forecast is ridiculous and I find it very difficult to understand why we are even having this debate in what is supposed to be a scientific forum. I'm a relative newcomer in here and this not the first time it's come up.

absolutely agree...... i dont use them though because i dont understand them...lol.

i note your shadow is still replying with a 'confused' emoticon. heaven knows why, they must be really dumb if they dont understand all of your posts! :D

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8 hours ago, Law of averages!! said:

I love it when someone says ' thing of the past ' ' or we don't get them any more ' haha, xcellent 

My brother in law said this around 2005, when he moved home to an higher area in Shaw were we live and I mentioned what about when it SNOWS, his reply ' oh we don't get snow like we used too!! '... and what happened 2007 it snowed heavy, 2009 and 2010 they were snowed in, LMAO

Also in, I think... in 2001 the SCIENTIST, who said in the papers and on tv... will the UK and Europe ever see snow again... if he's a scientist, I'm a monkey's uncle... you can't make this up... lol

indeed... i remember a run of mild winters in the early/mid 70's . there was an article on nationwide with sue lawley highlighting the mild winters and some were saying the very same things as some are now 'we dont get winters like we used to'... lol.

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9 hours ago, Matthew. said:

I keep asking myself is this winter much different to 2014/15? The only thing I can think of is the troughs are having a nw-sw tilt at times with more amplification to the west in general so giving marginal snow events with the jet a touch more meridionel 

The road is different but yeah, the end result is pretty much the same temperature wise. At least here in Central Europe.

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9 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

indeed... i remember a run of mild winters in the early/mid 70's . there was an article on nationwide with sue lawley highlighting the mild winters and some were saying the very same things as some are now 'we dont get winters like we used to'... lol.

I can recall those as well Mushy, from about 1971 through to 78  I think. I also think the 80's in a way were better, not just for the cold and snow, but also in the absence of the great god computer, we had to wait for the country file farmers forecast on a Sunday lunchtime. I t was always great when the  Michael Fish , et al used to forecast much colder weather for the week ahead. If it did'nt happen , then you would forget about it until the next week. We did'nt have the means, unlike now, of poring over every computer run .   In the absence of centrally heated houses, you certainly knew all about it when the Beast did come a calling.:D

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