Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[knocker]

The search for the elusive Scandinavian ridge/high is hotting up. Where will it all end I ask myself? Probably as the upper flow diverges in the east Atlantic, courtesy of some ridging north east around Svalbard, this will facilitate the Azores HP ridging NE towards the UK once the thermal gradient has slackened sufficiently. Heady days.

[Catacol]

13 hours ago, Law of averages!! said:

 those who say the reason we don't get winter's like we used to, because of global warming!! Haha, it's not real...

Which bit isnt real? AGW or GW? And if its GW you think is not real - is it real for the arctic?

[mountain shadow]

14 hours ago, Law of averages!! said:

 

P.s.s... those who believe in GW... need to check what the yanks do with haarp or harrp lol... that's more believable 

Here is a reproduction of Admiralty charts from the start of WW2. Just have a look at where the Summer and Winter ice extents are compared to now. The ice at its peak extended right across Northern Iceland and half way down the East coast, compare that to now.

As you can see, the Winter Arctic convoys had to sail much closer to land and therefore within fighter bomber range.

Northerly winds would have been therefore far less moderated by open ocean.  

Edited December 28, 2017 by mountain shadow

[law of averages]

Yes I understand the sea ice, I've looked... but even that peaked, so it should going back up!! Like I said things I've read, say it peaked 12yrs ago... so the retreat may, MAY have stopped?? And again it's patterns... how far can we go back about 100yrs, to look!! So if it as peaked, it'll gradually come back... so if we're about to go back in solar minimum, it should come back... plus it's not going to be the same every WINTER etc, even in winter's say 200yrs plus ago it must have been similar or even worse... even this generation wouldn't know and wouldn't all that fresh water have an effect on us, not just else where in the North hemisphere... plus if you believe in GW or climate change that's your choice, I don't... we all have opinions right or wrong

Ged

[law of averages]

Oh and 99% of what I've read... say not, so I'd 50% agree, 50% don't agree or a bit less

[beatpete]

5 hours ago, Law of averages!! said:

Yes I understand the sea ice, I've looked... but even that peaked, so it should going back up!! Like I said things I've read, say it peaked 12yrs ago... so the retreat may, MAY have stopped?? And again it's patterns... how far can we go back about 100yrs, to look!! So if it as peaked, it'll gradually come back... so if we're about to go back in solar minimum, it should come back... plus it's not going to be the same every WINTER etc, even in winter's say 200yrs plus ago it must have been similar or even worse... even this generation wouldn't know and wouldn't all that fresh water have an effect on us, not just else where in the North hemisphere... plus if you believe in GW or climate change that's your choice, I don't... we all have opinions right or wrong

Ged

peaked 12 years ago, i don't understand?.....the last 6 years have all been less than the median... http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/10/

5 hours ago, Law of averages!! said:

Oh and 99% of what I've read... say not, so I'd 50% agree, 50% don't agree or a bit less

99% of your reading choice is not represent the scientific consensus, The planet has more CO2 than any time mankind has been around and is warmer globally.  For our country there is possibility it may become colder in winter, so agree with @tight isobar  climate change is perhaps a better description, of course you may argue that it's not man made, but the climate is changing. Its probable that the solar minimum impacts weather but its just one variable, temporary in nature, and its impact on a warmer planet is unknown. With respect saying we've had 25-30 years without snow is wrong, and citing the fact we've "not had a summer like 76, if my memory is right went from the beginning of May till the beginning of October... nothing like it sinc" as evidence is ridiculous; it is probable that its the second warmest jan-oct since records began in 1910

"analysis of the Met Office’s figures indicates that the first 10 months of 2017 were the second warmest January to October period, behind 2014, for the UK since records began in 1910. This appears to be part of a trend, with the eight warmest years on record so far having occurred from 2000 onwards. This is a clear sign of the impact of global warming on the UK. Over the same period, the UK has experienced five of its six wettest years on record, which is likely to be another consequence of global warming, as a warmer atmosphere can hold more water, leading to more intense rainfall. Climate change is making the UK warmer and wetter, with higher risks of heatwaves and flooding due to heavy rainfall"

http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/analysis-of-met-office-figures-reveal-second-warmest-year-on-record-for-the-uk/

 

Edited December 28, 2017 by beatpete
to add stats

[SLEETY]

You’ve only got to look at the dramatic rise in the cet during the winter months,in the past 30 years to see global warming is real.

remember reading that the Gulf Stream might be reduced because of the rapid melting of the sea ice in the arctic,which would reduce the sea temperatures,but have seen no evidence of it yet.

[Matthew.]

Well those in the south Pennines should be getting there sledges ready

[law of averages]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

You’ve only got to look at the dramatic rise in the cet during the winter months,in the past 30 years to see global warming is real.

remember reading that the Gulf Stream might be reduced because of the rapid melting of the sea ice in the arctic,which would reduce the sea temperatures,but have seen no evidence of it yet.

As you say, no evidence... 30yrs is not a long time!! It's long time in our terms but not in how long the earth as been around?? So And in what history we can read ( not met they only use the last 100 or so ), very similar patterns seem to be there... long periods without cold/snow including the little ice age and Dickensian winter's wernt all like the Christmases he portraits... so what those believe in, we've done more in only 100yrs?? Not having that, SORRY

[law of averages]

4 hours ago, beatpete said:

peaked 12 years ago, i don't understand?.....the last 6 years have all been less than the median... http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/10/

99% of your reading choice is not represent the scientific consensus, The planet has more CO2 than any time mankind has been around and is warmer globally.  For our country there is possibility it may become colder in winter, so agree with @tight isobar  climate change is perhaps a better description, of course you may argue that it's not man made, but the climate is changing. Its probable that the solar minimum impacts weather but its just one variable, temporary in nature, and its impact on a warmer planet is unknown. With respect saying we've had 25-30 years without snow is wrong, and citing the fact we've "not had a summer like 76, if my memory is right went from the beginning of May till the beginning of October... nothing like it sinc" as evidence is ridiculous; it is probable that its the second warmest jan-oct since records began in 1910

"analysis of the Met Office’s figures indicates that the first 10 months of 2017 were the second warmest January to October period, behind 2014, for the UK since records began in 1910. This appears to be part of a trend, with the eight warmest years on record so far having occurred from 2000 onwards. This is a clear sign of the impact of global warming on the UK. Over the same period, the UK has experienced five of its six wettest years on record, which is likely to be another consequence of global warming, as a warmer atmosphere can hold more water, leading to more intense rainfall. Climate change is making the UK warmer and wetter, with higher risks of heatwaves and flooding due to heavy rainfall"

http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/analysis-of-met-office-figures-reveal-second-warmest-year-on-record-for-the-uk/

 

Sorry met office, HAHAHA... Yes 25/30yrs is not wrong, hardly any if at all snow is not wrong in my neck of woods at the foot of the pennies in Shaw Oldham and that's late 70s early 80s till 2007 and we've had more in that period since 2007!! One part of climate change/GW... if the lungs of the earth the rainforests of South America, Africa over to Asia if they have had an effect, what about the VAST FORESTS of Russia, Canada and maybe Sweden, Norway, Finland that have been cut down in the last 50yrs or so wouldn't that have an effect on the arctic into EUROPE and UK... were once stood VAST wind breakers that sent winds etc into the arctic or into EUROPE, just a thought... it may have 

What about the Antarctic... hardly any melted, in fact it's grown in some parts, is that climate change/gw 

[law of averages]

I respect the catacols, gps, tamaras, Steve Murrs on this site, they know more than I could ever know but since 2007, they've felt more like the winter's of the late 60s early 70s I was only young but what i remembered then, are similar now.. so if that's not pattern related I don't know what is.

And beatpete... there asnt been a summer like 76, if your old enough or born in that era you would remember but if not... you have to use a base year for you, mine is 76!! Like I can't use 78, 81 or 2010 as a winter to hold against 47 or 63... because they're not in the same ball park... but 2010 was a good one around here... but an holy trail winter might be around the corner, who knows... I hope 

[law of averages]

45 minutes ago, Law of averages!! said:

As you say, no evidence... 30yrs is not a long time!! It's long time in our terms but not in how long the earth as been around?? So And in what history we can read ( not met they only use the last 100 or so ), very similar patterns seem to be there... long periods without cold/snow including the little ice age and Dickensian winter's wernt all like the Christmases he portraits... so what those believe in, we've done more in only 100yrs?? Not having that, SORRY

Yes sleety gulf stream, more than anything controls our climate... that's why there are palm trees or was in Ayr, Torquay and southern Ireland... it's what drives our climate more than anything else and drove our weather long before climate change/GW 

[davehsug]

It could be an interesting winter. We seem to have slipped into a pattern where, instead of us escaping snow by any route, to snow happening whenever there's a chance. Anything from the North seems to have been properly cold rather than the tepid affairs we've had the last few years. Dunno if it's SSTs or just luck, but these things tend to continue.

[northwestsnow]

METOFFICE WARNINGS FOR SNOW THIS MORNING, reality is its persisting down -

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

METOFFICE WARNINGS FOR SNOW THIS MORNING, reality is its persisting down -

but 20 years ago and earlier, you'd have had snow off this setup, especially at 200m asl, even I might have had temporary decent covering

TMW  here for ever!

[knocker]

I find the gnashing of teeth rather amusing

Quote

Between 04:00 Fri 29th and 11:00 Fri 29th

A spell of heavy snow is likely over parts of northern England on Friday morning. Travel delays on roads are likely, stranding some vehicles and passengers. Some delays and cancellations to rail and air travel are likely. There is a possibility that some rural communities could become temporarily cut off. Power cuts may also occur.

Anyway despite this it's very quiet in the other thread this morning. I understand  that many are in mourning at the passing of winter.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

I find the gnashing of teeth rather amusing

Anyway despite this it's very quiet in the other thread this morning. I understand  that many are in mourning at the passing of winter.

Your sadistic knocker

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Your sadistic knocker

Good lord no. Sidney and myself exude good will to all. Well nearly all

[mushymanrob]

On 26/12/2017 at 10:00, mushymanrob said:

is there?.... i was just thinking this morning the first tentative steps towards one was taking place. ok its a very long shot/straw cluth, but the noaa anomaly charts are now suggesting for the 8-14 day time period pressure to fall to our south, where once it was higher. a strengthening azores high that might become negatively tilted, pressure rising over northern europe. ok... this is a very long shot, but IF this comes to be reality, then it wouldnt take much for an easterly to occur IF pressure rose over northern europe/scandinavia, and IF the azores high tilted the jet negatively thus directing the atlantic systems south of the uk into southern europe..

there, see, anyone can present a reasonable cold ramp if they tried!

 

...... seems theres growing evidence now that the scenario described above might actually happen.  the outlook into the new year certainly isnt mild, and transitory snow events might well occur. this has a very 'mid 80's' feel about it, and both 85 and 86 delivered a beast from the east.

[sorepaw1]

The met office warning for heavy snow for my area is like I thought over egged once again. Just heavy rain . There's more of a flood risk than a snow risk. 

[ukpaul]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

METOFFICE WARNINGS FOR SNOW THIS MORNING, reality is its persisting down -

Strange - this side of the Pennines it's (at last) a winter wonderland. Sorry.....

On the other topic, Trump tweeting about how the cold spell there disproves climate change is as depressing as you can get. In most countries you get old guys with scant knowledge, reactionary views and a loud mouth, only they are usually in an armchair ranting at the telly and being ignored by all and sundry. In America they made that guy president.......

[knocker]

30 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Strange - this side of the Pennines it's (at last) a winter wonderland. Sorry.....

On the other topic, Trump tweeting about how the cold spell there disproves climate change is as depressing as you can get. In most countries you get old guys with scant knowledge, reactionary views and a loud mouth, only they are usually in an armchair ranting at the telly and being ignored by all and sundry. In America they made that guy president.......

Or even on NW with their squirrel

[beatpete]

13 hours ago, Law of averages!! said:

Sorry met office, HAHAHA... Yes 25/30yrs is not wrong, hardly any if at all snow is not wrong in my neck of woods at the foot of the pennies in Shaw Oldham and that's late 70s early 80s till 2007 and we've had more in that period since 2007!! One part of climate change/GW... if the lungs of the earth the rainforests of South America, Africa over to Asia if they have had an effect, what about the VAST FORESTS of Russia, Canada and maybe Sweden, Norway, Finland that have been cut down in the last 50yrs or so wouldn't that have an effect on the arctic into EUROPE and UK... were once stood VAST wind breakers that sent winds etc into the arctic or into EUROPE, just a thought... it may have 

What about the Antarctic... hardly any melted, in fact it's grown in some parts, is that climate change/gw 

You've lost me... The vast forests of the northern hemisphere haven't been lost in the last 50 years, since 1900's they have been managed as commercial plantations, still cover cira 70% of the land and have never been as important as Rain Forests which are the true lungs of the planet. I'm not sure they have ever been regarded as wind breakers. 

Yes the Jet is a primary driver for the UK, but what impacts the jet? and is the jet as important for other locations?

May i suggest that using 1976 in isolation as a base is always going to skew your view and does little to further your point. Dec 2010  was epic for cold, the rest of that winter was not exceptional. I am am intrigued by the winter prospects in 18/19 and 20/21 due to low solar activity, but i would not dispel increasing evidence that the planet is warming as a whole and that the climate is changing as a result.

 

 

[knocker]

I really like this tweet by Sam Lillo

 

[Methuselah]

A question regarding the MJO and all that:

I'm at a bit of a loss as to know just how one is supposed to exploit teleconnections; not in that I have no idea at all about what they are, but how I should apprehend them...?

Am I right in seeing them as factors that predispose the atmosphere (in a broadly similar way to how possession of certain genomic mutations predisposes individuals to certain types of cancers - but in no way guarantees it) to adopt certain patterns, but doesn't guarantee them...?

Or am I just in imminent danger of disappearing up my own fundament!

Edited December 29, 2017 by Ed Stone