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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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19 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS and ECM still different, I'm in team GFS, but you have to feel ECM has this right, especially as experts say ECM better than GFS

gfs-0-162.pngECM1-216.GIF?13-12

GFS cold dry, ECM normal Dec weather

I think there are plenty in here (most?) who are hoping the GFS has got this sorted. It would be nice and seasonal which would make a change. However, you have to ask yourself which is most likely given the law of sod and previous, bitter experience? The little voice in my head is chirping away like Adam Gilchrist behind the stumps telling me not to believe the GFS.

Haven't seen anything from IDO of late - he normally favours the GFS/GEFS over the ECM so it would be interesting to get his take on this. The GEFS are certainly keen on something seasonal.

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11 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

I think there are plenty in here (most?) who are hoping the GFS has got this sorted. It would be nice and seasonal which would make a change. However, you have to ask yourself which is most likely given the law of sod and previous, bitter experience? The little voice in my head is chirping away like Adam Gilchrist behind the stumps telling me not to believe the GFS.

Haven't seen anything from IDO of late - he normally favours the GFS/GEFS over the ECM so it would be interesting to get his take on this. The GEFS are certainly keen on something seasonal.

Yes, I'm certainly hoping for the anticyclonic outcome. The parallel supports its older brother too, so there is some hope. It's strange really, as the received wisdom is that the GFS is too progressive while the ECM is prone to over-amplifying.

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14 hours ago, hammy_ire said:

I'm going to alps around the same time Ravelin...i know there is some more snow needed so what is the best route to a dumping between now and then?

The best route for a dumping across the whole Alps would be for the jet-stream to dive south into the Med and drag low pressure systems across the Alps. That looks highly unlikely though in the next 2 weeks so we're looking for scraps really. Where I'm going, Serre Chevalier, in the Southern/Central Alps I'm pinning any hopes on precipitation being dragged up out of the Med. The more northern Alps might get something coming from a more Northerly direction. Looks like it'll be about 6-7 days though before anywhere has much chance of getting anything and since that's quite far out in terms of forecasting precipitation we'll need to wait and see.

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Whilst in previous winters we have always been discussing 'Jam tomorrow' this year it feels like it is always looking positive in 3 weeks time! first it was End of Nov, then mid Dec and now we are talking early Jan. Met Office also always seem to be seeing signs of blocking in 3 weeks time and this has been the case since early November.    Getting Deja Vu with last year and I've lost hope of ant decent prolonged cold and snowy weather this year if I'm honest.

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3 hours ago, Certain kind of fool said:

I think there are plenty in here (most?) who are hoping the GFS has got this sorted. It would be nice and seasonal which would make a change. However, you have to ask yourself which is most likely given the law of sod and previous, bitter experience? The little voice in my head is chirping away like Adam Gilchrist behind the stumps telling me not to believe the GFS.

Haven't seen anything from IDO of late - he normally favours the GFS/GEFS over the ECM so it would be interesting to get his take on this. The GEFS are certainly keen on something seasonal.

 

 

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

IDO will be other way today though, going for ECM, but there again you could be right, if he thinks it's going to be cold, he won't post, so maybe GFS right?

Surprised he hasn't leapt on the 06z GFS to be honest. It provided some fodder for his 'unique' posting style. 

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38 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

imagine this in summer! we could be looking at record heat, but at this time of year, probably lousy temps of 5-6°

UW144-21.GIF?13-18

Well it's certainly different to any charts we saw last winter...just that this one has a fairly benign result.

No complaints with not seeing that chart during the summer. Summer 2016 wasn't that bad so no yearning from me!

Edited by Gord
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7 hours ago, Ravelin said:

The best route for a dumping across the whole Alps would be for the jet-stream to dive south into the Med and drag low pressure systems across the Alps. That looks highly unlikely though in the next 2 weeks so we're looking for scraps really. Where I'm going, Serre Chevalier, in the Southern/Central Alps I'm pinning any hopes on precipitation being dragged up out of the Med. The more northern Alps might get something coming from a more Northerly direction. Looks like it'll be about 6-7 days though before anywhere has much chance of getting anything and since that's quite far out in terms of forecasting precipitation we'll need to wait and see.

Thanks so much.  This makes sense.  I wasn't sure if it would be cold enough for snow in alps in such a mobile south flowing jet. In essence, for snow in the alps you need the opposite to what most people on here crave at this time of year?! Not looking super good at the moment but I've been following the models on and off for some time and know how quickly they can change especially with the amount of uncertainty at present.  That high however will be difficult to shift!

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2 minutes ago, Gord said:

Well it's certainly different to any charts we saw last winter...just that this one has a fairly benign result.

No complaints with not seeing that chart during the summer. Summer 2016 wasn't that bad so no yearning from me!

agree, summer wasn't bad, that chart I posted though would be too hot, Summer now my favourite season, but not keen on heat and humidity, would rather 20-25° all year, never mind all summer

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52 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree, summer wasn't bad, that chart I posted though would be too hot, Summer now my favourite season, but not keen on heat and humidity, would rather 20-25° all year, never mind all summer

Yes 20-25C from April to October and 20-25F November to April:D

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Indeed , the much fabled Scandi high is never going to effect the uk going by latest outputs, we're just left in no man's land as winter ticks on...need that high to do one so the Vortex can move east.

Edited by KTtom
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The Scandinavian blocking high has been hastily removed from the Xmas menu in the other thread and the pros are now into brutal cold in the Urals. Definitely a case of three wise men coming from the east bearing gift(s). Or are they?

Edited by knocker
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14 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Let's all sing a Christmas song.....

#Zonal spells, zonal spells, zonal all the way........ omg the GFS has just ruined our day...hey!    Zonals spells, zonal spells, zonal all the way......#

 

~

TMW! at highest level, feels warm again today, 2nd warmest Dec on record?

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24 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

The ECM looks interesting again, just in time for Christmas:yahoo:

? only if you live up a mountain 'England/Wales', lower levels Scotland and N.I, I would rather have high pressure, or what many would call on here as 'boring'

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

? only if you live up a mountain 'England/Wales', lower levels Scotland and N.I, I would rather have high pressure, or what many would call on here as 'boring'

Boring!:p I wouldn't mind high pressure but I prefer to have a chance of sleet.:rofl:.. anyway the real weather will probably be different to what the models are showing now.

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18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

? only if you live up a mountain 'England/Wales', lower levels Scotland and N.I, I would rather have high pressure, or what many would call on here as 'boring'

Right, not an entirely accurate statement though is it? And would you stop spouting off about TMW unless you're Ian Brown or his biggest fan boy?

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50 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

The ECM looks interesting again, just in time for Christmas:yahoo:

Don't worry, I'm sure IDO will be along with an insightful 240h mean chart to show us the error of our ways.

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