Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Matthew.]

Certainly save on the radiators when like this

[Matthew.]

looking chilly from Tuesday next week. Not looking forward to it really. Cold but not cold enough for snow. Much prefer mild like this week if it’s not extreme

[DAVID SNOW]

Atmospheric drivers.. there are too many people in the car to start with, so when stopped, the police have no idea who was driving, let alone the fact that along the way a few disqualified drivers (unknown to the police)  jumped in to totally confuse things.

[Weathizard]

3 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Atmospheric drivers.. there are too many people in the car to start with, so when stopped, the police have no idea who was driving, let alone the fact that along the way a few disqualified drivers (unknown to the police)  jumped in to totally confuse things.

Sums things up pretty well. I respect all experts and the more knowledgable than me but I take anything and everything with a pinch of salt now.

Many years of cold chasing on here have shown me 90% of the time all the jibber jabber doesn't amount to much, the weather will do what it wants when it wants and there's nothing we can do about it!

Apart from Kim Jong Un and his weather machine of course.

[knocker]

I think the importance of teleconnections can best be summed up here by glancing at the agenda of a recent summer school.

http://cosy.pik-potsdam.de/gotham-school/Gotham_Summer_School_Flyer.pdf

And perhaps this recent research paper that I've just posted in the relevant thread.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4950/abstract

But as ever with complex systems the key is trying to sort the wheat from the chaff and how it's applicable to pressure patterns in the Atlantic and north west Europe. Some people expect too much and essentially want to be handed a silver bullet to cold and snow.

Edited December 24, 2017 by knocker

[That ECM]

After a little interest for a couple of days next week there's not a lot in the current output to get excited about from a cold perspective. Jan might be a long month but we will keep looking and hoping because that's what we do! 

[sundog]

Anything we get regards decent cold before 2019 or 2020 is a bonus imo. This winter is probably too soon. Thought the same last winter. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

lol

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

lol

Pinch of salt chart mate.

The divergance in this being modeled is as-per laughable...being a tiny island on this scale its as tricky as it gets.

Its more up and down than a fiddlers elbow.

Id personaly (from experience) have the above chart quite widely further south but we shall see?!..

And already the mania is flagging on this one.....

Panic attack pills @the ready for some???

 

Edited December 24, 2017 by tight isobar

[NorthYorksWeather]

Well last Christmas day was the mildest day of the winter with a max of 13c.

This year is looking like about 10c, so at least we are seeing a downwards trend.

A drop of 3c every year would see us a white Xmas in 3 years time, roll on 2020.

 

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, sundog said:

Anything we get regards decent cold before 2019 or 2020 is a bonus imo. This winter is probably too soon. Thought the same last winter. 

I think 2024 up to 2027 might be a big one. The multiples imply this 1916/17, 33/34, 46/47, 62/63, 78/79, 95/96, 09/10. 

[Hocus Pocus]

19 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

It's usable.  I agree that not seeing the sun for more than a week or so is depressing, but the mild and drizzly conditions are actually perfect at this time of year.

I have to reluctantly disagree with you on this as mild without Sun is like cold without snow. ?

[knocker]

I think it total nonsense to denigrate the importance of  teleconnections, now and more importantly in the future, to understanding climate and medium to long term weather forecasting. In fact I'm amazed it should be questioned in a scientific forum. Of course great care has to be taken with their use and in the understanding of what they are saying, particularly in reference to our neck of the woods.  Ongoing research will no doubt improve our understanding of the complex mechanisms involved. The subject arises periodically and one such occasion was just after I first graced the corridors of NW and I posted this in the history forum. just to show that from little acorns........................

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64228-when-the-monsoon-failed/

[sundog]

21 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

I think 2024 up to 2027 might be a big one. The multiples imply this 1916/17, 33/34, 46/47, 62/63, 78/79, 95/96, 09/10. 

Well hopefully the 2020s will give  us better winters then this decade. Should get at least a few real proper cold spells imo.

Edited December 24, 2017 by sundog

[snowblizzard]

29 minutes ago, sundog said:

Well hopefully the 2020s will give  us better winters then this decade. Should get at least a few real proper cold spells imo.

Are you forgetting Global Warming?

Surely, continued Arctic warming will mean less chance of cold air getting far enough south to provide severe cold for UK!

I can't believe how high the temperatures are over Central/Northern Europe so far this winter.

Looks like it's all going the way of USA again!

Edited December 24, 2017 by snowblizzard

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Are you forgetting Global Warming?

Surely, continued Arctic warming will mean less chance of cold air getting far enough south to provide severe cold for UK!

I can't believe how high the temperatures are over Central/Northern Europe so far this winter.

It looks like it's all going the way of USA again!

I agree with all of that !

USA /Canada get the goodies again- i posted the other day about europe- its so mild its crazy.

Expect more of this over the coming few years-i believe the AMO is due to flip in around 5 years time- things might get a bit more interesting.

Even the -Qbo has done absolutely nothing to help us, despite a lot of commentators blaming the +Qbo for our crap winters in recent years.

[northwestsnow]

Oh and the easterlies, we get one once every what, 3 or 4 years during Dec/Jan/Feb- theres the problem, winds overwhelmingly from the Atlantic- goodbye cold!

[snowfish1]

Americans the greedy **********

[northwestsnow]

Think AMO is the last flip of the coin for UK coldies!

If we are still in the same mild hole by the time that flips they might as well re design christmas cards  to show wellies and mud ..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think AMO is the last flip of the coin for UK coldies!

If we are still in the same mild hole by the time that flips they might as well re design christmas cards  to show wellies and mud ..

Yes Xmas is normally mild now in the christmas pudding, seems too late somehow, jet/Atlantic normally wakes up a week before

Jan and Feb, I find the worst months for gales, rain and mild

[valiant]

"Are you forgetting Global Warming?

Surely, continued Arctic warming will mean less chance of cold air getting far enough south to provide severe cold for UK!"

But I thought Global Warming was going to cause Artic ice melt, cooling down the seas so much it stopped the Gulfstream Drift.

Causing catastrophic cooling for the UK?

 

Edited December 24, 2017 by valiant

[booferking]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

I think it total nonsense to denigrate the importance of  teleconnections, now and more importantly in the future, to understanding climate and medium to long term weather forecasting. In fact I'm amazed it should be questioned in a scientific forum. Of course great care has to be taken with their use and in the understanding of what they are saying, particularly in reference to our neck of the woods.  Ongoing research will no doubt improve our understanding of the complex mechanisms involved. The subject arises periodically and one such occasion was just after I first graced the corridors of NW and I posted this in the history forum. just to show that from little acorns........................

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64228-when-the-monsoon-failed/

The sentence neck of woods summed it up for me a lot more research many years of it infact as it not very clever tool at the minute for are wee island.

Merry Christmas knocks

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

I think 2024 up to 2027 might be a big one. The multiples imply this 1916/17, 33/34, 46/47, 62/63, 78/79, 95/96, 09/10. 

........probably pegged out by then

[knocker]

Despite all this talk about teleconnections a quick reminder from Sidney that the trend is your friend

Edited December 24, 2017 by knocker

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

Are you forgetting Global Warming?

Surely, continued Arctic warming will mean less chance of cold air getting far enough south to provide severe cold for UK!

I can't believe how high the temperatures are over Central/Northern Europe so far this winter.

Looks like it's all going the way of USA again!

There will always be cold winters coming along imo. Just rarer is all. Same with dry hot summers