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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
24 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS 12z doozra run!

Wax those sleds!

FI or not, that run is bound to happen. Why? Well I'm in the Alps 27th Dec onward, so I can just see me sat there in the apartment, storm-bound, ski area closed, as the snow piles up outside. When it finally stops, it'll take them days to dig out the lifts. If I'm lucky I might get to ski the last day before we need to head home.

Sods Law.

:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
6 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

FI or not, that run is bound to happen. Why? Well I'm in the Alps 27th Dec onward, so I can just see me sat there in the apartment, storm-bound, ski area closed, as the snow piles up outside. When it finally stops, it'll take them days to dig out the lifts. If I'm lucky I might get to ski the last day before we need to head home.

Sods Law.

:rofl:

That sounds like my kind of dream!

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Just now, mountain shadow said:

That sounds like my kind of dream!

That's no dream, it's a nightmare! Too much snow to ski, arghh.

I'd just have to resort to building a huge snowman to keep from going insane, I might even let my 9yr old help.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckshaw Village, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, frosty autumns and snowy winters
  • Location: Buckshaw Village, Lancashire
14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Straw clutch again on model thread, beast post +384 on GFS

......so,are you saying that no one wants to tell Santa to fit wheels to his sled? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Buckshaw Village, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, frosty autumns and snowy winters
  • Location: Buckshaw Village, Lancashire
1 hour ago, Hanny said:

......so,are you saying that no one wants to tell Santa to fit wheels to his sled? :D

Well that went down welll.........:fool:.............I'll get my coat!

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
On 01/12/2016 at 13:22, MidnightSnow said:

I'm going to have a punt and say that when we get to mid-december, the potential for cold will then be around xmas and new years. 

giphy.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, MidnightSnow said:

giphy.gif

and when we get to Xmas period, the cold potential will be mid Jan

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
6 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

2cat_20161201_mslp_months24_global_deter

:wallbash:

That's it, I'm off to Canada (if this happens)

 

Given this was the previous update  (from November) for that timeframe - I wouldn't pay too much attention. 

2cat_20161101_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Just now, draztik said:

 

Given this was the previous update  (from November) for that timeframe - I wouldn't pay too much attention. A bit like the CFS, highly experimental. And usually wrong.

2cat_20161101_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
16 minutes ago, draztik said:

 

Given this was the previous update  (from November) for that timeframe - I wouldn't pay too much attention. 

2cat_20161101_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.png

Wow - that's a very big change. Hopefully this update is very wrong but can't help but think it's maybe latched onto a more correct view, someone posted the December update from last year and it did pretty well.

Of course the anomaly charts make pressure seem higher further north than reality, so the actual mean pressure chart in my post would have more of a SW mild/damp flow over us.

Gunna try and not get too hung up over it though for the reason you point out..lol

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
23 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

and when we get to Xmas period, the cold potential will be mid Jan

And when you shut up whinging it will be summer.:hi:

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

And when you shut up whinging it will be summer.:hi:

C.S

I wish! summer my favourite season now, 

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
7 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

And when you shut up whinging it will be summer.:hi:

C.S

"Model Moans, Ramps and Banter Thread"

smug-david-brent-o.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
1 minute ago, MidnightSnow said:

"Model Moans, Ramps and Banter Thread"

smug-david-brent-o.gif

Indeed 

It was a tongue and cheek comment,IRA252 has known me long enough 

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
4 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Indeed 

It was a tongue and cheek comment,IRA252 has known me long enough 

C.S

Apologies :)

 

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Ian F has at least said on the model thread that the chart I posted above is skewed by Feb/Mar and that Jan is somewhat more blocked looking (not that I'll lose too much sleep on it)
 

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks..mate..i'm,getting.new..laptop..tomoz!!!-:yahoo:

Funny that! Your keyboard was working fine yesterday? mafia.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John (Just South of Bath) Somerset 150m asl
  • Location: Peasedown St John (Just South of Bath) Somerset 150m asl

Up to 100 members in the model output thread at this time of night on a Monday. Could something be about to erupt? Excitement brews ....

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

GFS and ECM still different, I'm in team GFS, but you have to feel ECM has this right, especially as experts say ECM better than GFS

gfs-0-162.pngECM1-216.GIF?13-12

GFS cold dry, ECM normal Dec weather

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