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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull

Oh dear. Doesn’t look like there’s anything of interest cold wise for a while. Think it’s time to pack in the model watching and enjoy Christmas. Hopefully things will change by the new year. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

You just gota laff- GFS 72 hrs shows the UK shows a 1035mb high just over wales and there is 1030mb high pressure extending north of scotland, the uk is bathed in browns and oranges and yet the precip charts (backed up by meto) shows drizzle here in my location.

ROFL.

Dont think i could have handpicked a worse pattern for christmas perdiod, drizzle and sw winds.nice!!

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

I think its been a wonderful start to winter   a foot of snow which is still lingering  cold nights  and for good measure a chesire gap streamer    ok so the Outlook dosent look great at the moment  but at least there possibly could be some interesting weather coming up perhaps a few storms also.  Certainly not a boring start to winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

Oh dear. Doesn’t look like there’s anything of interest cold wise for a while. Think it’s time to pack in the model watching and enjoy Christmas. Hopefully things will change by the new year. 

Hope springs eternal John!!

I'm no expert so i might be very wrong but yes, im thinking next 2 weeks minimum is a write off. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

I think its been a wonderful start to winter   a foot of snow which is still lingering  cold nights  and for good measure a chesire gap streamer    ok so the Outlook dosent look great at the moment  but at least there possibly could be some interesting weather coming up perhaps a few storms also.  Certainly not a boring start to winter.

I agree, its been great :)

The problem is the models are now looking as bad as they did at this time last year for me- a zonal barrage awaits...

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
55 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Personally im not disappointed because during our last cold spell I did say the return of milder weather is likely to continue into the New year. Many dismissed me and said the milder spell would be a short blip due to background signals.

Let me tell you about background signals i.e Teleconnections. I have the greatest respect for GP, Tamara but am sceptical of the use of these for a tiny Island such as ours. My approach is simple, if these background signals do not appear in the model output then im not interested. This opinion of mine is simply due to many years of following the model output and a certain forecaster called Joe always predicting an ice age around the corner for Europe!

couldnt agree more, but its the noaa anomaly charts that i use more then the ops because the ops vary so much. they can pick up on a signal, but they also pick up on an outlier.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

Keep the faith all, we're entering a period of bog standard UK winter weather now. Things can change quite quickly from a seemingly dire position, so just a case of being patient and hoping the models change in our favour.

This winter already beats the last 4 hands down (not saying much I know). 

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
11 minutes ago, danm said:

Keep the faith all, we're entering a period of bog standard UK winter weather now. Things can change quite quickly from a seemingly dire position, so just a case of being patient and hoping the models change in our favour.

This winter already beats the last 4 hands down (not saying much I know). 

Unfortunately, recent history tells a different story!

Once UK weather pattern settles into default zonal mode with the PV over Greenland it takes a monumental shift to change things back to cold!

Edited by snowblizzard
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, weirpig said:

I think its been a wonderful start to winter   a foot of snow which is still lingering  cold nights  and for good measure a chesire gap streamer    ok so the Outlook dosent look great at the moment  but at least there possibly could be some interesting weather coming up perhaps a few storms also.  Certainly not a boring start to winter.

Maybe on high ground in the Midlands it’s been great,but for most of us the start of winter has been nothing special.No lying snow here since March 2013.

Models not looking great at moment,you cannot! expect to get cold weather in the uk if you have high pressure where the models are showing it at the moment ,over SE Europe ,Italy etc.You need to  see low pressure in these areas,especially if you want to have any chance of seeing Easterlies arriving.

A lot of the expert posters have been saying they expect a change early new year,well it really doesn’t seem like it at the moment.

And another thing a lot of the more knowledgeable posters seem to vanish if the sign of cold weather disappears,what’s the point of only posting if cold weather looks like arriving,be nice to hear their opinion if cold is not showing.

 

 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Maybe on high ground in the Midlands it’s been great,but for most of us the start of winter has been nothing special.No lying snow here since March 2013.

Models not looking great at moment,you cannot! expect to get cold weather in the uk if you have high pressure where the models are showing it at the moment ,over SE Europe ,Italy etc.You need to low pressure in these areas,especially if you want to have any chance of seeing Easterlies arriving.

A lot of the expert posters have been saying they expect a change early new year,well it really doesn’t seem like it at the moment.

And another thing a lot of the more knowledgeable posters seem to vanish if the sign of cold weather disappears,what’s the point of only posting if cold weather looks like arriving,be nice to see their opinion if cold is not showing.

 

 

I understand that  but winter in this country really never produces widespread snow   infact living where you do im surprised you have ever seen anysnow at all.  And to be fai it wasnt limited to high ground  all low level areas saw snow.  Anyway.  for what its worth  a period of typical winter weather here in the UK coming up  not to mild not to cold  Wintry showers possible  High winds being possible.  and maybe a flip to colder conditions ltwr on in the period.  I for one dont think its too bad.  

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

Why do people care so much? Of course, many have an interest in the weather, what it is going to do and have weather preference types, but some people seem to live for the model runs and pin their happiness on the outcomes. 

The modeled output for my location has gone from -1 on Christmas day to +11 in the space of 24 hours on the ECM set runs :-D No doubt it will change again as well. Does it matter? Not in the slightest. I'll still be having the exact same day.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 hours ago, danm said:

Well despite the milder outlook, this has been a pretty good start to winter. 

Down here in the northern suburbs of London/SW Essex we’ve had more snow this winter so far than the last 4 winters combined. 

We’ve probably also had more frosty/icy mornings so far this winter than the whole of last winter! 

I think your memory is shortsighted last winter there was frosts galore just hardly any snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Haha !!

Its not been a bad December nick, but i think the next few weeks minimum is going to be very very different.. :(

basically without a SSW i think we are well and truly screwed- and with Glosea losing that signal i wouldn't be at all suprised if the meto long ranger switched , soon.

Already seen more snow this winter than the last 3 combined so can't complain!

I'll just enjoy the festive period I think. But it says something when we're looking at cannon fodder models. We'll be using seaweed and seagulls next :D

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Nick L said:

Already seen more snow this winter than the last 3 combined so can't complain!

I'll just enjoy the festive period I think. But it says something when we're looking at cannon fodder models. We'll be using seaweed and seagulls next :D

:rofl:

Totally agree about Dec- its not been at all bad.

Like you say we will enjoy christmas whatever the weather- although a snowy christmas would be lovely.. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Already seen more snow this winter than the last 3 combined so can't complain!

I'll just enjoy the festive period I think. But it says something when we're looking at cannon fodder models. We'll be using seaweed and seagulls next :D

I'm sure I saw a post (from someone who this time last week was imploring us all to 'look east') which is now saying we should all look west...?:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
47 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I understand that  but winter in this country really never produces widespread snow   infact living where you do im surprised you have ever seen anysnow at all.  And to be fai it wasnt limited to high ground  all low level areas saw snow.  Anyway.  for what its worth  a period of typical winter weather here in the UK coming up  not to mild not to cold  Wintry showers possible  High winds being possible.  and maybe a flip to colder conditions ltwr on in the period.  I for one dont think its too bad.  

Agree with you completely. The fact is the UK has never had widespread snow every year but some posters seem to think so and woe betide anyone trying to bring a bit of realism into the discussion. Christmas is coming, whatever the weather, enjoy it and have fun, I know I will be :)

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Agree with you completely. The fact is the UK has never had widespread snow every year but some posters seem to think so and woe betide anyone trying to bring a bit of realism into the discussion. Christmas is coming, whatever the weather, enjoy it and have fun, I know I will be :)

And remember, no matter the synoptics, it can always be linked to 47/63 :D

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

been here so many times, the zonality normally lasts 5-6 weeks at least, that's Jan written off

Ay true, don't give a damn what the QBO, El Nino is etc, SSW might happen after GFS 384, Pacific ridge at 300+, just pure straw clutch, mild air/low pressure wins here

The thing is, I think, that whichever the state the teleconnections happen to be in, mild/normal winters will far outnumber the Snowmageddons? That's not in any way intended to disparage the long-term signals & their usage, it's merely (I hope!:laugh:) a statement of statistical fact regarding the UK's climate...cool temperate?

So, yes, I do and will continue to take notice of the QBO and ENSO etc.:smile:

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The thing is, I think, that whichever the state the teleconnections happen to be in, mild/normal winters will far outnumber the Snowmageddons? That's not in any way intended to disparage the long-term signals & their usage, it's merely (I hope!:laugh:) a statement of statistical fact regarding the UK's climate...cool temperate?

So, yes, I do and will continue to take notice of the QBO and ENSO etc.:smile:

Absolutely. Anyone dismissing the usefulness of teleconnections is foolish at best, or simply have a lack of understanding about meteorology. Instinct can only go so far! 

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
21 minutes ago, Nick L said:

And remember, no matter the synoptics, it can always be linked to 47/63 :D

Haha, agree! Good old 1963. Just like 1966 in football, it isn't going to happen again in our lifetimes but it's still trotted out, year after year. 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

been here so many times, the zonality normally lasts 5-6 weeks at least, that's Jan written off

Ay true, don't give a damn what the QBO, El Nino is etc, SSW might happen after GFS 384, Pacific ridge at 300+, just pure straw clutch, mild air/low pressure wins here

Show me statistical evidence that zonality normally last at least 5-6 weeks?

I am not taking assumptions as evidence. 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Maybe on high ground in the Midlands it’s been great,but for most of us the start of winter has been nothing special.No lying snow here since March 2013.

 

 

 

It wasn't just high ground in the Midlands that experienced heavy snow. It affected a great swathe of the country at low levels. 

I live in suburban north London and had 3 inches of lying snow.

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Posted
  • Location: DL
  • Location: DL
35 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Absolutely. Anyone dismissing the usefulness of teleconnections is foolish at best, or simply have a lack of understanding about meteorology. Instinct can only go so far! 

I don't think the word 'teleconnections' does it any favours... it sounds disturbingly close to telekinesis.

At the end of the day, it's either based on solid physical/mathematical foundations or it isn't.  Sounds like it's fair to say that at least some of it is, even though it's initial discovery was apparently from statistical data.  (Beware correlation being causation, and all that).

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
2 hours ago, weirpig said:

I understand that  but winter in this country really never produces widespread snow   infact living where you do im surprised you have ever seen anysnow at all.  And to be fai it wasnt limited to high ground  all low level areas saw snow.  Anyway.  for what its worth  a period of typical winter weather here in the UK coming up  not to mild not to cold  Wintry showers possible  High winds being possible.  and maybe a flip to colder conditions ltwr on in the period.  I for one dont think its too bad.  

Never seen any snow at all ?:gathering: I’m in the same country you know.Take it you have never been to this part of the country then.I have driven past the Midlands,on the M6,never actually stayed there.

Lot of the Midlands is quite high,the reason you do well from from Northerlies and North Westerlys there.

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