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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
38 minutes ago, igloo said:

when you see +12 uppers in this evenings ECM run you no when things have changed big time if only we could get those sorts of uppers in july and not on the shortest days of the year the days of scandi hp and greenland hp are all gone bar from the few die hard deniers:hi:

Er we do......

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Posted
  • Location: Hinstock Shropshire
  • Location: Hinstock Shropshire

IDO and Knocker will be right more than 90% of the time and you can't blame them for ramping mild, it's the default setting for the uk. What gets my goat is the computers and the so called professionalls that report a high possibility of northern blocking and cold when in reality it just does not happen. I'm a coldie and wish for cold and snowy weather but get so fed up with having to pay taxes to an organisation that lets be honest, for all the millions spent on super computers cannot predict further than 5 days ahead!! ! Rant over and sorry if I have offended.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckshaw Village, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, frosty autumns and snowy winters
  • Location: Buckshaw Village, Lancashire
8 minutes ago, ditch said:

IDO and Knocker will be right more than 90% of the time and you can't blame them for ramping mild, it's the default setting for the uk. What gets my goat is the computers and the so called professionalls that report a high possibility of northern blocking and cold when in reality it just does not happen. I'm a coldie and wish for cold and snowy weather but get so fed up with having to pay taxes to an organisation that lets be honest, for all the millions spent on super computers cannot predict further than 5 days ahead!! ! Rant over and sorry if I have offended.

Quite uncalled for, shouldn't  blame 'others' for your frustrations, at the end of the day its Mother Nature and regardless of money or experience it is a forecast simple as that.

Edited by Hanny
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Anyway of hiding posts from those 2? have them on 'ignore' but it's useless, when they are quoted you can see 'em!

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i_am_so_happy.gif

 

On a side note, loving the thick fog tonight - very festive!

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Anyway of hiding posts from those 2? have them on 'ignore' but it's useless, when they are quoted you can see 'em!

Is this what we've come to? People now need an internet safe space from people who don't cold ramp? Gotta love 2016! 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Surrey
  • Location: Reigate Surrey
3 minutes ago, March said:

Is this what we've come to? People now need an internet safe space from people who don't cold ramp? Gotta love 2016! 

You need netweather to have a coldies only thread ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hinstock Shropshire
  • Location: Hinstock Shropshire

Sorry if you feel I have offended that was not my intention, I do get frustrated when for all the millions spent on super computers and the human input when it comes to the possibility of cold weather they rarely get it right. My question would be why bother?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
29 minutes ago, ditch said:

IDO and Knocker will be right more than 90% of the time and you can't blame them for ramping mild, it's the default setting for the uk. What gets my goat is the computers and the so called professionalls that report a high possibility of northern blocking and cold when in reality it just does not happen. I'm a coldie and wish for cold and snowy weather but get so fed up with having to pay taxes to an organisation that lets be honest, for all the millions spent on super computers cannot predict further than 5 days ahead!! ! Rant over and sorry if I have offended.

ISTM that Knocker has an enormous amount of technical knowledge, more than me (not hard) and more than many on here.  It's a daft word 'ramping'; it gets used loads whether preceded by cold or mild.  Trouble is it is terribly judgmental, used to condemn the posters because they are (delete as applicable) coldies or mildies ( 2 more ridiculous words).  Here's a thing:  love weather, all year round, if it's going to snow ramp to your heart's content, if you love mild, damp winter evenings with everything sodden and glistening, go for it, if you would rather have bone dry days in summer with dust and heat and parched grass then good for you.  How on earth, on a weather website, can we have got to this 'us against you' thing?   Baffling.  

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
11 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I DO tend to ignore IDO, always playing down cold

My only issue with IDO, is for all their analyses, why do they not post all year round? When was the last time they gave a model analysis during the summer season? Model analyses is all year round, the hunt for a summer heatwave, a Splanish plume, 

Too many members just post during the winter season. Weather is all year around, anyone claiming they are weather enthusiasts but post only during the winter season are not weather enthusiasts, IMO. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

Too many members just post during the winter season. Weather is all year around, anyone claiming they are weather enthusiasts but post only during the winter season are not weather enthusiasts, IMO. 

 

It's because we have a temperate climate and the weather is pretty easy to predict on a broad scale, The difficulty in this country is the predication of snow at the longer term, and we don't seem to be that much further forward in doing that.

The models continue to look poor for any white stuff and with the PV cranking up the chance of and extended proper cold spell is waning fast. We may need until Winter's end when the PV powers down for that.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Having just caught up with a few posts in here I can see that I'm going to have start 'mild ramping' merely to justify the accusations. I will find this very hard as someone who has always valued, and followed, a strictly scientific and objective approach. Just goes to show you cannot buck the raison d'etre of the thread without paying the price.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
12 hours ago, ditch said:

IDO and Knocker will be right more than 90% of the time and you can't blame them for ramping mild, it's the default setting for the uk. What gets my goat is the computers and the so called professionalls that report a high possibility of northern blocking and cold when in reality it just does not happen. I'm a coldie and wish for cold and snowy weather but get so fed up with having to pay taxes to an organisation that lets be honest, for all the millions spent on super computers cannot predict further than 5 days ahead!! ! Rant over and sorry if I have offended.

I agree. what the point of multi million pound computers when they can hardly predict even a few days in advance.  might as well just use a pine cone.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's because we have a temperate climate and the weather is pretty easy to predict on a broad scale, The difficulty in this country is the predication of snow at the longer term, and we don't seem to be that much further forward in doing that.

The models continue to look poor for any white stuff and with the PV cranking up the chance of and extended proper cold spell is waning fast. We may need until Winter's end when the PV powers down for that.

I predict the coming years UK weather will be unsettled and with days of sunshine and days of rain.  it will also be cool days and warm days.  that's the UK forecast.  who needs multi million pound supercomputers in this country. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, snow freak said:

I agree. what the point of multi million pound computers when they can hardly predict even a few days in advance.  might as well just use a pine cone.

 

Aye, perhaps...? But the models don't control the weather.:D

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire

If the models weren't unseasonable enough, you now have folk over on the MAD thread worrying about Drought conditions? Are you actually having a laugh. 

Have we become so accustomed to wet/mild pouring rainy days in the UK that if it dare did not rain for more than 7 days we are apparently in a drought and should be worried because it hasn't RAINED...

The farmers/vegetation/ growth is absolutely fine and it will no doubt probably pour down at some point over the next weeks. Dear god!!!

Edited by Ben Lewis
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
3 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

 

The farmers/vegetation/ growth is absolutely fine and it will no doubt probably pour down at some point over the next weeks. Dear god!!!

For dairy and sheep farmer the drier weather is giving them a chance to get work carried out on their farms which they ordinarily would not be able to do. Some hardier breeds are still out feeding on grass and there by saving the farmer silage fees too.

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

For dairy and sheep farmer the drier weather is giving them a chance to get work carried out on their farms which they ordinarily would not be able to do. Some hardier breeds are still out feeding on grass and there by saving the farmer silage fees too.

Exactly, my sisters friends parents, own a farm and they are loving this weather currently. Apart from the pouring rains on Saturday.

But folk over on the MAD thread complaining about high pressure and dry weather. I really don't get it - give it a couple of weeks and they will be complaining the opposite! This is the UK and every dry spell should be embraced especially in winter

Clearly they don't walk/run over fields and woodlands - Certainly no rain needed round here thank you very much

Edited by Ben Lewis
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
10 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I think you are confusing impartial realism for ramping - after all, by your own admission, it is the default setting in a maritime climate.

As for the bit in bold about extensive blocking not materialising so far .....

825dd3c56040a4f02b7ebe88cbea4070.gif

That image seems to agree with the supercomputers - don't you think - it is the December anomaly to date.

Maybe the problem is not with the computers but the brains that interpret the information.

That doesn't show an extensive HLB though, but a MLB around the UK. As ever we need HLB anomalies off the scale to bring snow to these islands.

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
21 minutes ago, Nouska said:

 

Maybe the problem is not with the computers but the brains that interpret the information.

I assume that comment is meant as all rounder from both sides. 

As a learner/less knowledgeable member maybe it is how the brain interprets the information - the exact same can be said for those members who post detailed long winded reports on the computers.

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
33 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That doesn't show an extensive HLB though, but a MLB around the UK. As ever we need HLB anomalies off the scale to bring snow to these islands.

Why would one even consider seasonal modelling programs as being a tool for forecasting conditions for snow?

The most powerful mesoscale models struggle at lead times of twenty four hours.

16 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

I assume that comment is meant as all rounder from both sides. 

As a learner/less knowledgeable member maybe it is how the brain interprets the information - the exact same can be said for those members who post detailed long winded reports on the computers.

You only need to spend time in the model thread to witness how the same chart can be interpreted in so many different ways. It all depends on seeing confirmation (or not) of personal preference bias.

Edited by Nouska
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

06z GFS = BANK please. I don't think it's going to get better than that for run up to christmas so cool feeling with a chance of some frost as time goes on suits me fine. At least that would feel vaguely festive.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

 

13 hours ago, abruzzi spur said:

How on earth, on a weather website, can we have got to this 'us against you' thing?   Baffling.  

Exactly, I've seen a lot in recent days..  

Anyway, apparently forecasts for the first half of winter were a disaster/useless 2 days after some of the posts.. It seems some seem to take a probabilistic forecast for an increased risk of a colder first half of winter (even if normal is still just about the most likely) to mean it will definitely be cold and they are entitled to it... well that's not the Met's fault.

Some recent posts are very 'us against you' with their attitude...
If I'm supposed to like this set up for it's dryness well it's drizzling & foggy on hills, everything is dripping, with 0 hours of sun again.

For a while some have come across as if it's slightly strange/unusual or puzzling that I'd prefer proper mobility with more sun in PM air and actual weather, to the current never ending mild, damp, dull stubborn weatherless Eurohigh induced setups... and that's not even me preferring it to a a cold crisp high or cold & snow, I'd much rather have that, it's just the Euroslugs I can't stand.

I mean, someone preferring weather to no weather, on a weather forum. who'da thunk it!

If even this forum is apparently so one sided/you against me, I may as well emigrate.. I mean from our climate to our politics to apparently a weather forum, seems little reason to stay in this country these days..

Anyway people saying the supercomputers are useless, well without them we wouldn't have known about or prepared at all for last winters severe flooding, and most severe weather events, until they hit.. That alone might justify them cost wise.

Sorry, I realise this post is kind of ironic and very moany, and may come across stronger than I intended being in a rush but I needed a little rant about this.
 

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
21 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Writes off expert forecasts and makes own forecast two months ahead. Apply the meto, you're clearly a meteorological genius. :santa-emoji:

I might well do,  seeing as my "forecast" is very similar to the Met Office update for the remainder of Winter- 80% chance of above average temperatures.

 

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