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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Evening all, 

I mentioned in my post this morning, that I thought the current synoptics reminded me a little of, the cold, wintry spell of Dec. 1981.

Below, a few charts from that spell. The wintry spell started during the morning rush hour of Tues. 8th Dec. Still remains the best rain to snow event, I've witnessed. A couple of inches, after an initial period of heavy, driving rain. I remember the University rugby match, between Oxford/Cambridge being shown on tv, the match was played at Twickenham, on a 2 inch carpet of snow.

CFSR_1_1981120812_1.png

 

The snow cleared away, during the afternoon. The evening was very cold and frosty.

 

On Sunday the 13th Dec, a depression approached the UK, from the west. I was living in Bromley, Kent, at the time. Ppn started off as snow but fairly quickly, turned to rain. It was during this event, that the Queen was trapped in an inn, in the Cotswolds, by snowdrifts. The ppn remained as snow, from the south Midlands northwards, and gave very heavy falls in places. See chart  below.

CFSR_1_1981121312_1.png

 

There were another couple of snow events leading up to Xmas, where I lived, in Bromley, due to what we now call, slider lows.

I believe one occurred on the 23rd Dec. and dropped a further couple of inches. The ground remained snow covered on Xmas Say, although it didn't snow, so not technically a white Xmas. See chart for the 23rd Dec. below.

CFSR_1_1981122312_1.png

I look at those synoptics now and to me, they look fairly underwhelming, rather like what is being shown, for this upcoming spell. But as Steve Murr explained, the other day, get deep entrenched cold, over the UK and milder air, associated with Atlantic lows, can struggle to make inroads into the UK, just flirting with the periphery of the entrenched, frigid air and become "slider lows". I do believe that Shawbury in Shropshire, recorded the record minimum low, for England, something like -24c or even lower, perhaps, in this spell.

 

Best wishes,

Tom.

 

 

 

 

 

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A pretty good December 81 here in Bristol.

1st blizzard hit us on 1st Sunday that Dec at about 11.30am; i was getting ready to go to pub for midday opening:D

It raged for 4 hours dumping 8ins of snow before v mild air followed from the SW; by 10.00pm that evening you wouldnt had known we'd had a blizzard!

Plenty more snow events that December. Only one in my lifetime that came close to Dec 2010. 

But i'll disagree with comparing this December to 1981 - not even near.....yet. We'll need 3 or 4 good snow events in next few weeks to match Dec 81 imo and i dont mean 1inch melt jobs.:D

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Getting pretty sick of reading about all of this stupid 'southwards correction' rubbish people on the MOD keep on posting, so hopefully the slider continues to move north until it's north of Shetland. Nobody gets snow then.

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38 minutes ago, cheese said:

Getting pretty sick of reading about all of this stupid 'southwards correction' rubbish people on the MOD keep on posting, so hopefully the slider continues to move north until it's north of Shetland. Nobody gets snow then.

yeah, that'll teach those weather nuts to want seasonal weather! imagine that! people hoping to get snow, in winter, what are they thinking of?!!! why dont people just stop posting about the weather on here. its getting really tedious.....

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1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

yeah, that'll teach those weather nuts to want seasonal weather! imagine that! people hoping to get snow, in winter, what are they thinking of?!!! why dont people just stop posting about the weather on here. its getting really tedious.....

One would hope that people would post IMBY posts in the appropriate sections of the forum instead of cluttering the MOD thread with rubbish, but hey, I guess I'm the crazy one. 

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7 minutes ago, cheese said:

One would hope that people would post IMBY posts in the appropriate sections of the forum instead of cluttering the MOD thread with rubbish, but hey, I guess I'm the crazy one. 

one would hope that people could just enjoy the weather and watching it unfold in the model ouput without people whinging about a few (understandably) excited posts....

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5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

one would hope that people could just enjoy the weather and watching it unfold in the model ouput without people whinging about a few (understandably) excited posts....

You hope for too much.

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I'm just annoyed that I can't get involved in the 'slider wars', I'm just too far NE for it to even be the remotest possibility. Not that it'll matter as by this time tomorrow I'll probably have been blown away. 

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The south of England on Sunday, will either get a snow covering, or it'll be 7 degrees with a strongish southerly breeze. I'm thinking somewhere in between, but closer to the latter. 

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Am due to drive up to Banbury, Oxfordshire on Sunday from Heathrow. Not sure that'll be happening, looking at latest model output. Heathrow looks wet but the Chilterns north look snowy....

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16 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

Mood seems very sombre on here this morning. Are the models really looking that bad?

Well watching the BBC weather reports this morning it all looked good for tonight\tomorrow and Sunday still, if anything they were being a bit more bullish about the risks!

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I do like the look of those two images from ICON for Sunday:

image.thumb.png.5e5ac37b17c82968506b06277b3114e9.png   image.thumb.png.746cd95cbb3a68c71c9a19ec07567127.png

Not so good for my location, or anyone south of the M4 for that matter, but plenty of happy people further north.

Of course, it won't happen quite like this, will it, because the all models still disagree on the areas to be affected.  It seems the only reliable way to know if your area is going to turn white is to keep looking out of the window starting tonight.....

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1 hour ago, Sky Full said:

I do like the look of those two images from ICON for Sunday:

image.thumb.png.5e5ac37b17c82968506b06277b3114e9.png   image.thumb.png.746cd95cbb3a68c71c9a19ec07567127.png

Not so good for my location, or anyone south of the M4 for that matter, but plenty of happy people further north.

Of course, it won't happen quite like this, will it, because the all models still disagree on the areas to be affected.  It seems the only reliable way to know if your area is going to turn white is to keep looking out of the window starting tonight.....

How reliable is this?

 

 

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Imo the next week is the most inspiring in terms of potential extreme weather for a very long time,certainly last winter never contained a full week of 'interesting weather'

The last pulse racer was a storm outbreak back in July.

We have everything on the table according to latest model runs,blizzards,wind chill,ice, for some.

If you like other extremes a few model runs are now suggesting a notable wind storm for Southern England on Monday,perhaps another on Wednesday.

Snowfall yet to be nailed,but at some point in the next week most will see some form of the white stuff,for some sledges , others maybe just a wintry mix.

Possibly a lul  in any extreme weather from Thursday next week,but all to play for again Weekend of the 16th onward.

Happy days...just enjoy this spectacular meteorlogical spell.

 

Edited by sunnijim
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1 hour ago, P-M said:

How reliable is this?

 

 

I'm am sure I read somewhere that the ICON is up there with the UKMO regarding reliability - but as every model is showing a different solution I find it hard to believe any of them even with less than 72 hours to go.  If it comes off like this then there should be at least six hours of falling snow from the Midlands up to your area.

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Quoting phil nw from the model thread:

Quote

Just looking beyond the next few days and to the medium term there looks to be some readjustment of the pattern going on.

Both suites show a weakening of the Alaskan/W.NA ridging around days 10/12-GEFs a llitle later.This releases the hold on the Canadian vortex which is currently being drawn back by the upstream amplified pattern,We can see the signs of the change upstream on the day 10 patterns.

   EDH1-240.GIF?07-12   gensnh-21-1-240.png                                

More east to west pressure on the Atlantic heights with signs of the northern jet breaking through so this may just explain the uptick in the later temp.graph for London

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

No suggestions of full on zonal by any means but there may be a period of just below average(temp wise) westerlies rather than the current cold Arctic outbreaks from further north.

Some re assurance for coldies perhaps is the continuing show of +ve ht anomalies to our ne and across the pole in the ens charts.

Day 15 gefs

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

ECM from the us site(which i wont post) pretty much shows the same picture.

A bit of a cross roads coming up from days 10-15 as to whether the NH re-amplifies as the polar profile would suggest and where those ridges will show.

In other words, though deterministic models may show a more zonal set-up for a while after the cold spell, don't think that's it necessarily.  It might just be a rearrangement of the pattern.

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I can vividly recall working outside during Dec 1978,  and remember being  bl...dy cold. Perusing  the  old  charts for the period , this set up does appear to bear some similarities to my very untrained eye.

Edited by 78/79
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