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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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1 minute ago, cobbett said:

Mod thread now reads like the old bbc snow watch page - I remember a guy on that forum called crazysnowfan - think he'd feel right at home there now :D

is on here too, not really a fan though, more for the bairns

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A wintry mix doesnt do it for me. Cant stand cold rain, sleet. Give me a December '15 over that poor excuse for Winter weather anyday:)

I'm hoping the real cold and snow holds off until 14 Dec and beyond, as i'm off to Fuerteventura on Saturday for a few days.:D

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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

A wintry mix doesnt do it for me. Cant stand cold rain, sleet. Give me a December '15 over that poor excuse for Winter weather anyday:)

I'm hoping the real cold and snow holds off until 14 Dec and beyond, as i'm off to Fuerteventura on Saturday for a few days.:D

Yes, i'd rather 13 degrees

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17 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

A wintry mix doesnt do it for me. Cant stand cold rain, sleet. Give me a December '15 over that poor excuse for Winter weather anyday:)

I'm hoping the real cold and snow holds off until 14 Dec and beyond, as i'm off to Fuerteventura on Saturday for a few days.:D

Cant see it doing much around here BB, elevated locations like the Mendips might get a covering. A nice polar Continental East/ N East a bit later on would do the trick though.

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2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

A wintry mix doesnt do it for me. Cant stand cold rain, sleet. Give me a December '15 over that poor excuse for Winter weather anyday:)

I'm hoping the real cold and snow holds off until 14 Dec and beyond, as i'm off to Fuerteventura on Saturday for a few days.:D

Agreed on hating cold rain and sleet but December 2015 felt weird, almost surreal and ominous. 2016 was better, nice crisp and sunny 

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It's looking a bit wild & messy in the near to mid time frame!

Slipping back to a more Atlantic driven pattern for a time which will mix-out much the colder uppers.

But, still signals that Northern blocking will strengthen again with possibly East based -NAO?

Encouraging signs for later in December perhaps.

Edited by snowblizzard
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Going into the Model Output Discussion reminds me of when my son has his mates round to play on the PlayStation! The scenario is something like this:

 

A couple of his mates come round to play Model Output Discussion, GFS, ECM and UKMO they bring along little 6z. All is going well. They all like the way 6z has started the mission and are all on board and there is a lot of good humoured banter. 

Then a little while later there is a knock on the door and another z brother turns up, 12. 12 goes into the room and after a few minutes there is a lot of shouting and yelling and a few ominous crashes. You go into the room. Your son shouts that 12 has taken over and completely ruined the mission. GFS and ECM think it’s a good mission, UKMO is sitting on the edge of the bed texting, 6z has fallen asleep as everyone has forgotten about him.

GFS remembers you’re good friends with his mum, and doesn’t want to get into trouble so he says that actually he thinks 12’s way of doing the mission is rubbish. ECM accuses him of ‘flip flopping’ as usual, your son tells GFS he can’t be trusted.

Your son asks UKMO who he’s texting, he says he’s just asking if Bartlett High wants to come over to join the game. Your son goes mad! He hates Bartlett, he always ruins everything! He would rather have Bart’s sister Scandi round. UKMO says she can be big and bossy sometimes and blocks everything he wants to do. Your son says UKMO shouldn’t be so bias to mild which ruins everything and just let Scandi do the mission her way. 

 

You leave the room, there’s a knock at the front door, you can’t take much more!

 

18z has turned up with his mate Slider Low. There’s a lot of interest about what Slider is going to do later. He’s not sure. Meanwhile 18z has taken over the mission everyone loves how he’s started, the evolution of this looks great!

 

Happy banter resumes! 

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oh well it now seems the upcoming cold snap isn't going to quite as exciting as the charts promised a few days ago.  Too much of a marginal set up for many of us.  Marginality seems to be the common theme in British winters these days and even when we do have a cold spell we now end up with cold rain rather than snow.  Utterly depressing.

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8 minutes ago, snow freak said:

oh well it now seems the upcoming cold snap isn't going to quite as exciting as the charts promised a few days ago.  Too much of a marginal set up for many of us.  Marginality seems to be the common theme in British winters these days and even when we do have a cold spell we now end up with cold rain rather than snow.  Utterly depressing.

Marginality doesn't really bother me all that much, SF: it was ever thus...

Even back in the halcyon days of the 1960s snow would often turn to rain and then back to snow again and then back to rain on an almost hourly basis. I think that, barring exceptional cases (1981-2, 2010 etc.) we know what to expect...I guess it's all contained within that irritation expression - rain, sleet or snow?:santa-emoji: 

PS: Google's now telling me that 'marginality' is in fact not a word - when it has a capital 'M'!:fool:

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Bbc going on about windchill now for Friday ,despite forecasting day time highs of 5-6in the South and 5c in Shetland ? yet only 3c in Shetland thurs.?

Ridiculous.I remember cold spells from the past with maxes below freezing and a strong wind,now that was proper windchill !!!

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3 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Morning everyone, 

This is my first post for over 2 years. Some of you might remember me as TomBR7, TomSE20 and even KentishCZ.

I suffered a brain haemorrhage/stroke, a week after my 60th birthday, in September 2015.My GP refers to it as a CVA {Cerebral Vascular Accident} I spent the best part of 5 months in 4 different hospitals, finally returning home in mid-Feb, last year. I can't speak highly enough of the NHS staff, at those hospitals, they were brilliant!!

I required CPR twice, had 2 bouts of Meningitis, Encephalitis, so the NHS saved my life, literally. I had to learn to walk, talk, eat { that wasn't too difficult } and swallow properly, again. I'm well on the road to recovery again, now. For a good while, my long term and short term memories, were completely wiped out. Can you believe I'd even forgotten that Netweather existed and that my hobby was Meteorology!!

The main reason for my recovery though, I have to attribute to my wife, whose love, care and attention to detail, is the reason, I'm still here today. She really has "stood up to the  plate" for me, in these last couple of years. Fighting my corner with the likes of Benefit Agencies (I'm sure some of you know, how difficult that can be ), Hospital depts. ( Gaining extra Physiotherapy sessions for me ). Colette works in a Residential Care Home and as you probably know, they are on a really low wage. So, after I lost my job. due to sufferimg that CVA, Colette took on extra hours, to help keep the wolf, from the door!! She has recently gained promotion to a Senior/Team Leader and I must say, she thoroughly deserves it, bless her.

I see that the usual members, still post regularly and as it's Winter time, we still get the same knee-jerk reactions to every frame of every model run, you could call it, positively tilted or negatively tilted, knee jerk reactions or as the French would say, " Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!!

I have been avidly following the model output and discussions, for a while now. I've been struck by how reminiscent the models and NH profile are to late Nov/early Dec. 1981. I think Timmytour and someone else mentioned it the other day ( Sorry my impaired memory, playing tricks on me again!!) I would invite members to look at the Meteociel Archive link, I've posted below.)

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=26&month=11&year=1981&hour=0&type=ncep&map=5&type=ncep&region=&mode=0

 

The run-up to that very wintry December, featured a broadly similar NH profile,to now, low heights way over in the NW Pacific/Asia region. Dec.1981, was also a very torturous route to cold, wintry weather. including a few feeble northerlies and a few bites of the cherry.Now I'm not saying the synoptics are going to pan out, like Dec.1981 but I think the similarities are there. 

One thing my close shave with death taught me, was to be less obsessive about snowy, wintry weather and also my Brontophobia has greatly reduced. Some of you probably remember me mentioning my son  Antony, who has full-blown Huntington's Disease now and my daughter has the HD gene but fortunately, isn't symptomatic, yet but will develop it, at a later date.

My point being, that there are really more important things in life, to worry about, than what the weather will do!!

It will be a double-edged sword for me, if we have snow and ice, in S.E.London, as due to problems with my mobility and impaired balance, I wil be confined to barracks, as will a lot of elderly people!! 

So, those of you that do get some snow, have fun but it really isn't the end of the world, if it doesn't happen.

Anyway, enough of my ramblings. It's great to be back!! All of you, enjoy your hobby. 

Very best wishes, to all.

Tom.

 A very moving story with good advice for all of us and everyone who reads your post on here will certainly hope your recovery continues apace.  It also brings it home to me how lucky we are to have had the Internet invented and flourishing in our lifetimes because it means that no matter how unwell or even disabled any of us are, we can still enjoy active participation and discussion with groups of friends having similar interests from all over the country/world whilst not having to leave the house!  Couldn't possibly do that 25 years ago. And this site is definitely one of the very best around with a houseful of different rooms to visit each with different subjects and characters to enjoy.  I must say that despite the name 'model ramps and moans' there is FAR less moaning and ramping going on in this thread than in the main MOD thread.  It's sometimes difficult to find the real model analysis over there because of all the hopes/wishes/will it/won't it snow in my garden type posts.  But then I am guilty of posting one or two of that type so I suppose I'd better keep quiet.....

Now for my moan - I HATE the way the models seem to frequently forecast exciting weather in the not too distant future (up to 10 days ahead, say) and then downgrade it when it's only three days away.  This is true in summer and winter so it's not just cold weather that's forecast and never arrives.  Surely the computers should be set up to predict broadly average weather all the time based on real data from the past, and only forecast extremes when it's definitely going to happen?  I wouldn't mind only having three days notice of a notable weather event providing it actually happened.  What I can't stand is the tendency to show weather we would all enjoy which then gets watered down to average almost every time.  Perhaps I should stop looking at them.........

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Bbc going on about windchill now for Friday ,despite forecasting day time highs of 5-6in the South and 5c in Shetland ? yet only 3c in Shetland thurs.?

Ridiculous.I remember cold spells from the past with maxes below freezing and a strong wind,now that was proper windchill !!!

Wouldn't worry too much about the temperatures they show. For some reason they're always overcooked during cold spells. Even when they show the frost maps, the lowest temperatures are often not where the darkest colours are. 

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Can i just bring a bit of perspective to the forum. It’s early December and what I am seeing in the model output is marginal snow/cold for the South - with much greater probability of true cold and accumulating snow for the North - that is what the current output will bring. We need to see much more extensive Northern blocking for a prolonged nationwide cold & snowy spell.

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I mean sure, it looks nice at first sight but then you check the temps and it's just unimpressive. Hopefully something from the continent arrives in the second half of the month.

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As far as marginality goes, here's something I wrote elsewhere a few years back during a cold spell:

Quote

it's a horrible, grotty, damp, miserable day today. Still cold at around 3 °C, but with light rain and drizzle melting the snow into slush everywhere

That was written on 4 December 2010. So even that amazing month was marginal at times in my neck of the woods. As far as the next few days go, I'm not expecting anything much, so anything I do see will be a bonus. (Though I'm supposed to be meeting friends on Saturday, so not too much disruption on that day, please!)

Edited by Arctic Hare
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As the models decide whether this LP wants to slide/glide/stride etc over the UK, the snow line keeps meandering about with a grin on its face like the pied piper. 

If only it were possible to have 0 deg maxima above the snow line and 30+ below it - I could watch the chaos unfold from the comfort of my deck chair. Looks like an absolutely rotten few days on the horizon!!

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1 hour ago, Number 23 said:

As the models decide whether this LP wants to slide/glide/stride etc over the UK, the snow line keeps meandering about with a grin on its face like the pied piper. 

If only it were possible to have 0 deg maxima above the snow line and 30+ below it - I could watch the chaos unfold from the comfort of my deck chair. Looks like an absolutely rotten few days on the horizon!!

In summer, I love warm/hot days with clear blue sky.

In winter, I love below zero ice days, heavy drifting powder snow (January 1987) and the chaos that it always causes in UK!

However, I absolutely detest cold, wet weather with rain & sleet!

Edited by snowblizzard
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