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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    37 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Apparently it has been decided by the general council that in future any trough/depression approaching the UK from the north west will henceforth be called a trigger shortwave slider.

    There's always some fad every year.

    Anyone remember "torpedoes"?

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    This is wrong on so many levels...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    it will turn milder on Monday 11th, about 5th GFS run on the bounce now, EC is even worse, turns milder on Sunday 10th, 2 and a half day Northerly arrives Thursday night, snow for north and east, then wet and windy from Sun/Mon

    thought it may be memorable, but no just a typical cold shot for TMW

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    it will turn milder on Monday 11th, about 5th GFS run on the bounce now, EC is even worse, turns milder on Sunday 10th, 2 and a half day Northerly arrives Thursday night, snow for north and east, then wet and windy from Sun/Mon

    thought it may be memorable, but no just a typical cold shot for TMW

    EDH1-96.GIF?04-12

    Im quite optimistic about thur night round here :)

    And i think places with decent altitude will do OK inc parts of the Midlands-

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

    Todays forecasts for later this week - wind direction seems to have been modified to more of a North Westerly!

    Anyway, Northerlies never really any good for us down South unless the air is bitterly cold.

    I always look East for wintry weather into Kent.

    But, nothing much happening in terms of very cold pool of air out East just yet!

    Still looking good in terms of Northern blocking, but how long will it last?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    2 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

    oh dear .......now you see why the beeb and other outlets simply dont go much past 4 or 5 days

    What wasnt mentioned in the Mad thread yday when Countryfile forecast was mentioned is that any Meto updates will have their Mogreps and Glosea models factored in. Hence why Meto have remained relatively cautious.

    Those models are obviously showing cold/mild 'mix' with threat of snow shower events but no real prolonged snow/cold event.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
    47 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

    Can a shortwave slider blowtorch a slug?

    It depends. Right now, it's a case of 'as you were' because of a lack of data. But the outlook screams potential. We are on a knife-edge between a trigger low or a flattening of the pattern. So eyes down, because more runs are needed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    ECM continues to disappoint somewhat...not for the first time we see numerous small areas of low pressure here there and everywhere but no strong PV and no sign of heights building to the north east. No 'real' cold either other than the 1-2 wonder Am air mass starting from Friday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic

    I see the end of the GFS 06z run has created a bit of feverish speculation.

    IMG_4940.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Yep seems to be a trend - the 6z and 18z seems to be delivering the goods in FI...I'd take that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Yep seems to be a trend - the 6z and 18z seems to be delivering the goods in FI...I'd take that.

    It certainly seems that way, Froze. But, given all the 'trends that never were' that teased us so badly last year, I'll think I'll temper my excitement until the 1987-esque block comes within a reliable time-frame...:unsure2:

    Until then, there's still the upcoming weekend's 'not quite Snowmageddon' to enjoy!:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

    after last weeks model runs of blizzards with drifting snow its back down to earth with a few wintry showers along western coasts and northern areas before we get high pressure shutting down any showers for the weekend many people will be disappointed but hi we should have known better by now :girl_devil:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County
    55 minutes ago, igloo said:

    after last weeks model runs of blizzards with drifting snow its back down to earth with a few wintry showers along western coasts and northern areas before we get high pressure shutting down any showers for the weekend many people will be disappointed but hi we should have known better by now :girl_devil:

    And so the disappointment begins.....:wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: DL
  • Location: DL
    3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Yep seems to be a trend - the 6z and 18z seems to be delivering the goods in FI...I'd take that.

    There are some interesting possibilities for cold and snow fans. 

    But the southerly track of some of those vicious lows in other FI ensemble members has to be a concern for wind and rain in the south-west, even if it is just a brief transitional phase.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    5 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

    Looks to me southern England south east England risk of snow.

    B051F199-0282-4550-A125-315D317DE330.png

    If that chart were to verify exactly like that, it would bring rain to Southern counties, snow for parts of Wales and the North-Midland's. On that basis, I do not like it one iota!

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire/Oxon/Northants Border
  • Location: Warwickshire/Oxon/Northants Border
    11 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

    Anyway, Northerlies never really any good for us down South unless the air is bitterly cold.

    I always look East for wintry weather into Kent.

     

    Northerlies are no good for us in Central England either, but sometimes the Cheshire gap delivers some snow.

    At present I don't get the excitement about the cold snap later this week, as it's far too early to predict who, or if anyone will have snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

    Logged on this morning for the first time in ages. Had no idea there was a chance of snow at the end of the week which was a nice surprise. Logged on again this evening and it all seems negative and downbeat in the model thread. Somebody tried posting words of encouragement and mentioned there's a chance snow in every region except the south west. Ouch, :(




     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    6 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

    Monday morning on the control. 

    5591CE2A-A204-4EDF-B7CD-684EF3F421E7.png

    I believe that chart to be absolute nonsense!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

    I believe that chart to be absolute nonsense!

    me too

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    This all has a familiar whiff about it...

    Building anticipation: check

    Marginality: check

    FI 'Jam tomorrow' charts: check

    What could go possibly go wrong? :drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
    1 hour ago, Number 23 said:

    This all has a familiar whiff about it...

    Building anticipation: check

    Marginality: check

    FI 'Jam tomorrow' charts: check

    What could go possibly go wrong? :drunk-emoji:

    I will add that ALL affordable Davos wooden sledges have vanished off Ebay in the past few days, missed my chance again. They'll all be back on next week after the Non-Snow-Event is over......(I am trying reverse psychology on the weather, again)

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy
  • Location: Telford, Shropshire
    3 hours ago, Number 23 said:

    What could go possibly go wrong? :drunk-emoji:

    Straw-clutching at charts out to +240 perhaps?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Team GFS! but bet it's wrong, normally think it's going to be right

    cold shot is over by Sunday on UKMO and EC

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