Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[mountain shadow]

Seen this happen time and time again over the years. The cold and snow gets delayed and delayed then eventually we miss out altogether as the whole lot shunts East.

Tamara seemed to be indicating that we needed to get as much out of this situation as we could, if we didn't it could be into January before we get another shot.

 

[jvenge]

Have a tea. Check the control in an hour. Check the EPS. Ignore the 18z ;-) chill.

Tis only model output.

[pegg24]

The model chat thread is getting really hard to keep up with it is normally hard work but last few days warn out and I just watch it don't comment.

[CK1981]

I think it’s best to take a break from the models for a few days. These wild swings clearly show something is brewing and they are still trying to get to grips with it. I really do hope we get some snow this Winter, for my Nephew (aged 6), who is yet to see any!!

Edited November 29, 2017 by CK1981

[knocker]

There is a suggestion doing the rounds that the MOD thread be closed from 2200-0400 to allow the grass to be cut and the pitch rolled. Also public viewing areas to be spruced up and the rubbish generated during the day to be collected and be recycled. Thus a nice fresh start in  the morning from pristine conditions.

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

There is a suggestion doing the rounds that the MOD thread be closed from 2200-0400 to allow the grass to be cut and the pitch rolled. Also public viewing areas to be spruced up and the rubbish generated during the day to be collected and be recycled. Thus a nice fresh start in  the morning from pristine conditions.

You mean deleting 90% of the posts?

I confess. I didn't care enough this evening and had a chuckle at the comments before even checking the ECM.

Apparently GFS is the consistent model, though. Nothing to see here.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

To be fair the high being further East than we need is in GP's thoughts from his earlier post, this could yet end up a Gavin special - ie- high pressure dominated.

 

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

You mean deleting 90% of the posts?

I confess. I didn't care enough this evening and had a chuckle at the comments before even checking the ECM.

Apparently GFS is the consistent model, though. Nothing to see here.

 

Actually at T144 the ecm is not significantly different to the previous run and even after that it's in the same ball park so it shouldn't have come as a major surprise.

[jvenge]

9 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

The GFS has consistently shown a northerly next week for its past 5 runs ! 

So? Its got there a different way each time as well. And it runs 4 times a day! Ensembles have been a mess from T144 each run and its control going in different directions.

Consistency is in the eye of the beerholder. 

I couldn't care less which verifies, but it does irk me when people turn GFS into a hero on Wednesday and then laugh at it come Friday. While smugly saying ECM is the top model.

One can predict when these days come. Its the days when the GFS shows what the cold brigade want and then vice versa.

 

 

Edited November 29, 2017 by jvenge

[V for Very Cold]

So who’s suffering from model fatigue.....or is it sea sickness lol 

[jvenge]

19 minutes ago, knocker said:

Actually at T144 the ecm is not significantly different to the previous run and even after that it's in the same ball park so it shouldn't have come as a major surprise.

Quite.

Sidney liking the EPS control and mean? Some toasty uppers there.

[jvenge]

Just now, ShortWaveHell said:

I’m in neither brigade ! Commenting on its output ! In comparison the ecm 00z showed a Hurricane then the 12z that has disappeared and we are in tropical tundra , true it got there a different way maybe twice , end result was a northerly 

Getting there a different way is just the same as switching between mild and cold.

Really dont understand this weird Operational Day 10 obsession.

Nothing set in stone. Ensembles show that well enough.

[jvenge]

Will be the next few days and it rained the past 4 days as well.

Such is weather 

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, CK1981 said:

I think it’s best to take a break from the models for a few days. These wild swings clearly show something is brewing and they are still trying to get to grips with it. I really do hope we get some snow this Winter, for my Nephew (aged 6), who is yet to see any!!

Quite. Not sure what's so great about a 'hobby' that seems to make people extremely obsessive and then argumentative or downright vile when things don't go their way. The model output is indeed swinging about and I wouldn't be surprised if we do see some decent cold. Plus, we're still technically in autumn so there's loads of time for your nephew to be introduced to the magic of snow 

[frosty ground]

Looks like Codge is back.... now that  a troll 

[stainesbloke]

5 hours ago, Snowstalker said:

I know i keep reminding myself ive got another 12ish weeks of potential.

I wish it was that easy to just up and leave for a break to a glorious beautiful snowy destination like the Alps or Scandi, but money and time are super tight at the moment, its just not an option for us right now...so il just av to get my snow fix watching snow videos on the youtube, its really quite pathetic!

Wish I lived in Canada, in one of the places that get such great snow storms that when you go to leave the house in the morning you can't get out of the front door cos your greeted with a solid 7ft wall of snow! Snow Heaven.

 

 

Money is always a bit tight at this time of the year! Fair enough, wasn't meaning to be rude with my comments, bit frustrated with some of the melodrama on here. We could do with a nice cold snowy spell this winter for everyone to get their fix. Though if you spoke to most Canadians, I reckon that they'd tell you that their winters are not much fun and go on way too long.

Edited November 29, 2017 by stainesbloke

[ArHu3]

1 hour ago, CK1981 said:

I think it’s best to take a break from the models for a few days. These wild swings clearly show something is brewing and they are still trying to get to grips with it. I really do hope we get some snow this Winter, for my Nephew (aged 6), who is yet to see any!!

Not even in 2013? My daughter turns 5 in a few days, she wanted to see snow so much (in the winter of 2015-16 of all winters?), so I took her to the snow in the alps (also the reason I came here because it was mostly snowless in the alps that winter), she loved it so much. She still talks about it, and the winter after, when we went again. So maybe you can take him to the snow too?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, ShortWaveHell said:

The GFS has consistently shown a northerly next week for its past 5 runs ! 

I normally pick GFS over ECM to be right, but have a feeling GFS cold be wrong here, see how 18Z goes, but expect a backtrack towards ECM

[CK1981]

46 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Not even in 2013? My daughter turns 5 in a few days, she wanted to see snow so much (in the winter of 2015-16 of all winters?), so I took her to the snow in the alps (also the reason I came here because it was mostly snowless in the alps that winter), she loved it so much. She still talks about it, and the winter after, when we went again. So maybe you can take him to the snow too?

I can’t remember much snow here then and he was only 2, so wouldn’t remember it. I’m feeling positive that this winter will deliver as the signals are much better, so mabye he will be able to build his snowman 

[Snow Slave]

51 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Money is always a bit tight at this time of the year! Fair enough, wasn't meaning to be rude with my comments, bit frustrated with some of the melodrama on here. We could do with a nice cold snowy spell this winter for everyone to get their fix. Though if you spoke to most Canadians, I reckon that they'd tell you that their winters are not much fun and go on way too long.

no worries I didn't think you were rude at all! Ive often though of booking a snowy get away to get my snow fix but a recent change of circumstances have made that near on impossible, for the next few years atleast. I also totally get that the melodramtics can get tiresome, its just so very frustrating year after year after year of no snow, although I have to say last winter was the worst, it was the most boring mundain dry still winter I can ever remember here in the very far southeast, so anything we get this year will be an improvement on that, hopefully.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

hmm, instincts right, shorts flip flops, out

[Stephen_Mcr]

Blimey, tough to see such a flip in models in just 24 hours. 

Expected last nights GFS to perhaps be not as intense as it was suggesting, but you expect it to have things roughly in line.

[northwestsnow]

Another pointless chase....

Oh well.

[mountain shadow]

UKMet model all on its own now, will surely backtrack in the morning. 

I fear we have missed our chance for a good while now.

[joggs]

Models are sadistic.