Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[stainesbloke]

4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm sure its not just me, there is an air of inevitably about all this, its like following a really crap football team who go 1-0 up at half time every game but then lose 99% of them as we head through the second half.Same way if the models show a cold outlook beyond day 7 you just know whats going to happen- its happened time and time and time again.

Its becoming very deflating and taking the fun out of the chase now, mainly because the chase virtually always ends in disappointment.

I'm  making my new years promise right here right now, i will not believe a single cold chart at 144 or beyond ever again, and i mean ever.

Oh the good old days, when ceefax and the Countryfile weather for the week ahead forecast on a Sunday lunchtime were about as long range as it got! It's the same tiresome story on here every year. Poor Toyland, it's worse than living in Midsomer. You've hit the nail on the head with the T144 timeframe. Add a dose of realism and humour and it's not so bad, expectations are always way too high and it'll lead to disappointment 95% of the time, especially as we've been in a run of warmer winters for 20 odd years now. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

4 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

 

There's no way that 12/13 years ago when I first started model watching, that the models have got more reliable when it comes to cold spells!!!

They simply don't get enough practice to be accurate.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

Pattern change!

Listening to some of the US forecasters and model output it's looking odds-on that a very West based blocking pattern is setting-up!

Bad news for cold lovers in Europe & UK!

 

La Nina effects as predicted by Tamara, I wonder?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, steveinsussex said:

So bloody frustrating

Not if you either learn to appreciate mild, or at least expect it.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, Snowstalker said:

You know what I totally agree with you.

After 5 years of no snow, I honestly thought this year was gona be differet.

Yesterday i let my excitememt at the prospects of potential snow override my better judgement, and I went and brought my kids snow boots and dry suits.

It all my fault, I'm like the kids of death.

I'm giving up on snow now. 

I know it sounds dramatic but i cant handle the constant disappointment year after year anymore, cant believe my daughter is 6 years old and still hasn't seen proper laying snow.

And yes before anyone says it I know we havent even got into proper winter yet, but we all know how this winter is gona go dont we.

Edit. just wanted to add in not sure of who you mean re likes, i was refering to the later part of the post, just to clarify xx

That even makes this mild-lover feel sad!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, snowstorm445 said:

 

We've obviously witnessed a real paradigm shift in winter climate. Snowy winters by and large will clearly be things of the past.

Glad you realise it.  I think this place would be much nicer if more members got the idea.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Rickoza said:

http://www.markvoganweather.com/2017/11/27/greenland-warms-nearly-40c-as-textbook-aonao-develops-cold-times-ahead-for-uk/

This is very interesting..........

 

Isn't that based on yesterday's outputs (which now appear to be wide of the mark), though?

[knocker]

Good to see a really positive outlook from the EC46 this morning with above average temps again forecast from the 18th Dec. to the middle of January.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Good to see a really positive outlook from the EC46 this morning with above average temps again forecast from the 18th Dec. to the middle of January.

Fits with the expected La Nina pattern, Malcolm?

[knocker]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Fits with the expected La Nina pattern, Malcolm?

Well to some extent but from what I've read, the correlation between La Nina and NW Europe winter weather is somewhat tenuous.  But I must admit to being not very knowledgeable in the area and would have to bow to the wisdom of so many in the other thread.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well to some extent but from what I've read, the correlation between La Nina and NW Europe winter weather is somewhat tenuous.  But I must admit to being not very knowledgeable in the area and would have to bow to the wisdom of so many in the other thread.

I know even less!  I was just going by Tamara's post a few days ago and the long-range models which are going for unsettled zonal conditions to dominate fro mid-December through until late February.

Edited November 28, 2017 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I know even less!  I was just going by Tamara's post a few days ago and the long-range models which are going for unsettled zonal conditions to dominate fro mid-December through until late February.

This from a study into loads for the National Grid

This signature is quite typical of La Niña, says Prof Adam Scaife, head of the decadal forecasting group at the Met Office. He tells Carbon Brief:

“La Niña tends to drive blocking and, therefore, low wind speeds in early winter, but late winter is, on average, windier than normal during La Niña.”

[Yarmy]

Telling people in the Model thread to use this thread for moans/ramps/jokes/nonsense seems to be about as effective as me telling the kids to get dressed in the morning. Maybe the analysis should go in here instead and leave them to it.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Telling people in the Model thread to use this thread for moans/ramps/jokes/nonsense seems to be about as effective as me telling the kids to get dressed in the morning. Maybe the analysis should go in here instead and leave them to it.

We did have an in-depth thread, but it doesn't seem to be used.  

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Telling people in the Model thread to use this thread for moans/ramps/jokes/nonsense seems to be about as effective as me telling the kids to get dressed in the morning. Maybe the analysis should go in here instead and leave them to it.

Funny you should say that, the same thought has often popped into my head...............

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Funny you should say that, the same thought has often popped into my head...............

What do you think to posting your morning anomaly update in the In Depth thread?  Perhaps discuss in PM?

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, Snowstalker said:

You know what I totally agree with you.

After 5 years of no snow, I honestly thought this year was gona be differet.

Yesterday i let my excitememt at the prospects of potential snow override my better judgement, and I went and brought my kids snow boots and dry suits.

It all my fault, I'm like the kids of death.

I'm giving up on snow now. 

I know it sounds dramatic but i cant handle the constant disappointment year after year anymore, cant believe my daughter is 6 years old and still hasn't seen proper laying snow.

And yes before anyone says it I know we havent even got into proper winter yet, but we all know how this winter is gona go dont we.

Edit. just wanted to add in not sure of who you mean re likes, i was refering to the later part of the post, just to clarify xx

I do feel for you but we are still technically in autumn. So a whole 3 months to go of winter proper. There are no ways of predicting the weather that far out that I'm aware of, anything could happen. I do wish some people on here that are snow starved would do something about it. A trip to somewhere snowy, like the Alps, Scandinavia, etc, would get a guaranteed snow fix. Doesn't have to be expensive. 

[knocker]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

What do you think to posting your morning anomaly update in the In Depth thread?  Perhaps discuss in PM?

Not with you I'm afraid  I don't make a morning anomaly update, just usually my take on the 00 gfs output and a comment on the ecm. All of which I would have thought was the raison d'etre of the thread

[jvenge]

The 06z Operational is just a slightly different variation of the overall theme. You had ensembles showing it on the 0z and you have ensembles from the 6z showing the 0z operational view. You also have ensembles showing slightly different variations.

Hype aside, you can't be depressed about the 0z suite and optimistic about the 06z, based on an operational from either....

In short, nothing changed since the 0z.....and people did tend to overreact to that one.

[cheese]

9 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

I do feel for you but we are still technically in autumn. So a whole 3 months to go of winter proper. There are no ways of predicting the weather that far out that I'm aware of, anything could happen. I do wish some people on here that are snow starved would do something about it. A trip to somewhere snowy, like the Alps, Scandinavia, etc, would get a guaranteed snow fix. Doesn't have to be expensive. 

I'm not sure about anyone else, but experiencing snow abroad is never the same as experiencing it at home for me. 

Anyway, over the past few years the lack of snow hasn't really bothered me, especially since I don't actually expect anything, so what little snow we do get is a pleasant and unexpected surprise. As long as it doesn't rain too much then I'm not too fussed -nothing good about excessive rainfall and all of the problems that causes

Plus, mild months can be pretty pleasant. February 1997 and February 2008 stand out as two very mild but sunny and dry winter months that I wouldn't mind seeing a repeat of.

But I must admit, it would be nice to have a decent snowfall, especially at this time of year when everything is starting to feel Christmasy. Maybe one day.

Edited November 28, 2017 by cheese

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not with you I'm afraid  I don't make a morning anomaly update, just usually my take on the 00 gfs output and a comment on the ecm. All of which I would have thought was the raison d'etre of the thread

Sorry - don't know why I mentioned anomalies.  I was thiking of some of your other posts.  I think your regular 0z updates get lost given the amount of rubbish in that thread at this time of year.

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

I'm not sure about anyone else, but experiencing snow abroad is never the same as experiencing it at home. 

Anyway, over the past few years the lack of snow hasn't really bothered me. As long as it doesn't rain too much then I'm not fussed - but I must admit, it would be nice to have a decent snowfall, especially at this time of year when everything is starting to feel Christmasy. Maybe one day.

I agree with you about rain, but not snow. Going to a place that has snow every year and is geared up for it is fun. Take Scandinavia, you can go sledging, tobogganing, skiiing, ice skating etc etc. I know it's nice seeing snow at home but in the average garden you can just about build a snowman, and then what? Stare at it for days? That's if we get more than an inch of slush, anyway. Then there's the whole transportation/roads/NHS/power cut/people driving like idiots nightmare, add to that snow falling around Christmas....ugh, no thanks. I can take it in January or February but definitely not Christmas which is stressful enough.

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Sorry - don't know why I mentioned anomalies.  I was thiking of some of your other posts.  I think your regular 0z updates get lost given the amount of rubbish in that thread at this time of year.

Whether they get lost or not is entirely dependent on the 00 output. If it favours imminent blizzards and the UK plunged into the freezer then yes lost under the deluge but if warm zephyrs are mentioned the the silence will be absolutely deafening. I know not why  I mean surly true enthusiasts find something interesting in every analysis?

[cheese]

5 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

I agree with you about rain, but not snow. Going to a place that has snow every year and is geared up for it is fun. Take Scandinavia, you can go sledging, tobogganing, skiiing, ice skating etc etc. I know it's nice seeing snow at home but in the average garden you can just about build a snowman, and then what? Stare at it for days? That's if we get more than an inch of slush, anyway. Then there's the whole transportation/roads/NHS/power cut/people driving like idiots nightmare, add to that snow falling around Christmas....ugh, no thanks. I can take it in January or February but definitely not Christmas which is stressful enough.

I don't care about having fun in snow though. I like snow in the UK because it's a novelty. I like snow in the UK because it's a change of pace to our usual dreary perpetual damp/muddy winter weather. I like snow in the UK because it makes everything look brighter - which at this time of year when the nights are long makes a really big difference. I appreciate that it's troublesome and people in the UK have no idea how to handle it, but I don't mind that. I didn't mind it in 2010 and I wouldn't mind it now. 

I think, when you're a weather enthusiast, you accept that certain types of weather cause problems - that's part of the game. I wouldn't want disruptive weather all the time but it's nice to have a change from the usual mediocre weather we get in the UK 90% of the time..

Edited November 28, 2017 by cheese

[jvenge]

Just to ram the point home. If you really wanted to spot the differences, you would need to say the 0z suite showed more in depth cold than the 06z, yet people are wetting the pants over the 6z, based on an operational, and slashing their wrists over the 0z....

You can't make it up, really.