Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Because today has a mild close feel (winter version) from Atlantic air.

Those cold days in June was air orientation from the North Sea, completely different feel and probably felt more noticeable due to a mild May with good amounts of sunshine here and there. 

I mean take yesterday for instance: so mild and in the sun it was spring like, everyone in the office commented how warm it felt and windows even got opened. You certainly couldn't do that on those cold days in June! 

 

 

can only agree, to me, 12° in Dec/Jan feels miles warmer than 12° in Summer, in Summer it would be very cold wind from N or NW, no sun likely, where as warm TM air in Dec to Feb, muggy feel

[Bristawl Si]

33 minutes ago, frogesque said:

Dipping a toe into very deep and maybe piranha infested waters here so please go easy.

Many years ago at school in Geog I was taught that the British Isles lay in the path of the Gulf Stream producing on average, warm summers with reasonable rainfall and cool wet winters. Sometimes we had a heatwave thanks to southerlies from Africa etc. and sometimes we had a northerly or easterly cold spell from the Arctic or Siberia.

Forecasting methods and models have improved dramatically over the last 50 odd years or so but fundamentally has anything really changed that much?

Thanks in advance, but I would prefer not to enter the minefield of climate change unless I have to!

Great post and so true.

[knocker]

36 minutes ago, frogesque said:

Dipping a toe into very deep and maybe piranha infested waters here so please go easy.

Many years ago at school in Geog I was taught that the British Isles lay in the path of the Gulf Stream producing on average, warm summers with reasonable rainfall and cool wet winters. Sometimes we had a heatwave thanks to southerlies from Africa etc. and sometimes we had a northerly or easterly cold spell from the Arctic or Siberia.

Forecasting methods and models have improved dramatically over the last 50 odd years or so but fundamentally has anything really changed that much?

Thanks in advance, but I would prefer not to enter the minefield of climate change unless I have to!

Well a couple of fundamentals. The Arctic is rapidly warming ( And who knows what effect that is having on NH weather patterns-perhaps Dr Jennifer Francis) and sea Ice is in rapid decline.  And most of the world's glaciers are melting. I'll close the door on the way out

[frogesque]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well a couple of fundamentals. The Arctic is rapidly warming ( And who knows what effect that is having on NH weather patterns-perhaps Dr Jennifer Francis) and sea Ice is in rapid decline.  And most of the world's glaciers are melting. I'll close the door on the way out

Dare I mention the possibility of the Atlantic conveyoy shutting down or is that a step too far?

Dons chain mail and armoured helmet!

[Froze were the Days]

Hahaha! just seen the ECM 12z - it just gets worse...

By the way I was taught at school in geography (in the early 80's) we had cool summers and mild winters thanks to the Gulf Stream (I think you might have got that the wrong way round), personally nowdays the winter part is correct and here in the South East summers are generally warm.

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, frogesque said:

Dare I mention the possibility of the Atlantic conveyoy shutting down or is that a step too far?

Dons chain mail and armoured helmet!

Ooh no. You have to transfer your attention to the climate area where I think you will find that this has been addressed on a couple of occasions.

Edited December 10, 2016 by knocker

[Tonyinhampshire]

Solution is to take a short trip to a a snowy country. You can get a rtn flight to Eastern Europe for about £50 now, just an hour or two away.

[frogesque]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ooh no. You have to transfer your attention to the climate area where I think you will find that this has been addressed on a couple of occasions.

Pass!

[frogesque]

14 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Hahaha! just seen the ECM 12z - it just gets worse...

By the way I was taught at school in geography (in the early 80's) we had cool summers and mild winters thanks to the Gulf Stream (I think you might have got that the wrong way round), personally nowdays the winter part is correct and here in the South East summers are generally warm.

Yep, I really meant warm as in moderate rather than hot as in S. Spain. Basically temperate rather that extreme due to Gulf Stream effect. Similarly in winter, no real (-40C) outliers.

[Snipper]

21 minutes ago, frogesque said:

Dare I mention the possibility of the Atlantic conveyoy shutting down or is that a step too far?

Dons chain mail and armoured helmet!

Don't know why some are so snooty at the comment. 

[AmershamMike]

Cant help but feel so much energy on interpretation is wasted because the models just ain't that good. So much straw clutching throughout the whole winter.

[Daniel*]

5 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

What do you mean 252? that was the frequency of longwave radio station, ending Jan 2002

252 also first chart of GFS low resolution

I think you know full well, I'm referring to you pal...

[The Wolf]

All falling apart again. Looked good a couple of weeks ago but lets be honest it looks dire at the moment for any sort of even half decent cold weather. This winter heading just like the last couple of rubbish winters. Before we know it we will be into January and chasing cold always weeks away. Could be game over yet again.

 

 

Edited December 10, 2016 by The Wolf
spell

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, The Wolf said:

All falling apart again. Looked good a couple of weeks ago but lets be honest it looks dire at the moment for any sort of even half decent cold weather. This winter heading just like the last couple of rubbish winters. Before we know it we will be into January and chasing cold always weeks away. Could be game over yet again.

 

 

No, it looks like a mild-ish couple of weeks taking us up to around Christmas. After that it's all conjecture and a very different situation could well develop and quite likely to imho. Think some of you on here need to take a bit of a break from obsessing and over-analysing every single model run, switch off pc's, tablets etc and go and do something else more fun!

[cheese]

5 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

can only agree, to me, 12° in Dec/Jan feels miles warmer than 12° in Summer, in Summer it would be very cold wind from N or NW, no sun likely, where as warm TM air in Dec to Feb, muggy feel

It's like - the first 16C sunny day in late February/March feels wonderfully warm - but the same temperature during the day in July or August feels very cool. The former would see everyone in T-shirts for the first time in months, while the latter would see people wearing jackets to keep warm in the middle of summer, especially since a max temp that low in summer would usually be the result of cloud and/or rain.

It's just not the same at all.

Edited December 11, 2016 by cheese

[March]

8 hours ago, Mapantz said:

But you said you don't have your heating on today, and it was 12C, but you did put it on in June when it didn't quite reach 11? That's some threshold!

I live not far north of him and yes, we did have annoyingly suppressed temps for about 4 days from May 31st to June 3rd but it was a blip really. May was a mild month and June ended up with 20C average highs here.  

Edited December 11, 2016 by March

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 hours ago, Changing Skies said:

I think you know full well, I'm referring to you pal...

You said the model thread? I don't post in there?

[daz_4]

I just want average winter but it seems I'm asking too much. The last average winter month was February 13. Almost four years now. It is just impossible to get winter to Europe. Horrible outlook which will again result in summer drought because there will be no snow in mountains.

Winter 16/17 - brought to you by potential.

[knocker]

You can just see where all of this is leading. HP becomes established to the south east and  a slack, cold regime settles over the UK for a week or so. This gradually breaks down and fronts in the west make slow progress east potentially bringing copious amounts of snow, particularly over Dartmoor and Exmoor.

[SnOwFeSt]

I'm not feeling too gloomy about these charts to be honest. Sure, things are on a knife edge and we could be under a long draw southwesterley, but recent outputs are suggesting we will remain under the high with a slack southeasterly. At this time of year this means frosts, fog and possible ice days. Looking forward to some nice crisp december weather hopefully.

[weather_it_will]

11 hours ago, AmershamMike said:

So much straw clutching throughout the whole winter.

It's the same every year.

The model output forum is a waste of time as everyone just cherry picks what they want to see or just quotes the metoffice forecast.

Any chance of snow is a long way off at present.

 

 

[Seasonality]

I DOn't know if you'd find 360h mean charts useful. But here is one. It is going to be mild!!!!! This chart proves it. 

 

[Froze were the Days]

No sign of cold for the foreseeable (maybe some surface chill)...it just seems to be a case of Atlantic fronts 'buffering' against a ridge of high pressure to the south east and at times milder south westerlies Tm air temporarily nudging in, I don't think it's going to be that unsettled but that's the only positive I can see. A miracle is needed for any white stuff for Xmas. Surley we have to see a pattern change towards New Year dont we?

[blitzen]

I remember years ago (early eighties) when the most we had publicly available as far as LRFs went was the Countryfile Farming Forecast, {6 days ahead} which nearly always turned out to be pretty accurate.   I suppose in those days ( and even moreso the years before) there was a neccessity for more 'human input' to make up the forecasts as opposed to relying on computer fed algorithms nowadays?

There are certain posters on here who to me come across as part of the 'old school'  who are more reliant on their own intuition, observation and experiences than on some of the more advanced, available technology.  Those who can second guess the models  by pointing out what the next move should be, wont be and at times can't possibly be.

Here we are at the onset of yet another winter and already computer modelling is falling far short of reasonable expectations.   Comments on here appear to me to be correct in that no visible progress appears to have been made regarding their output considering the vast amount of money invested.

This observation isn't just sour grapes because the outlook looks less than promising at the moment.   In my opinion, they can fall just as far short at times during the other seasons as well.  I also realise that so much more goes into the mix nowadays too but  I think the time for a little bit more confidence and accuracy is well overdue, at least over the shorter ranges?

 

Edited December 12, 2016 by Blitzen

[Froze were the Days]

Countryfile forecast generally only went out to 5 days ahead (Friday) and yes generally fairly accurate, times were simpler then. Not sure all these models/computers are good for the blood pressure/expectations all they do is make you addictive and most of your time on a computer/tablet/mobile etc. Give me teletext/countryfile/paper forecasts anytime.

When times were simpler folks!!