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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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The GFS/Other models are so unreliable for anything past 5 days - they really have been terrible particularly recently - I'll wait until the weekend until I make my mind up for what happens next week !! 

Only 7 days ago there was no cold weather in sight until Mid-Dec.

They are utterly useless... people should read them with caution!! 

Edited by Matt Ralph
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5 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Pattern change!

Listening to some of the US forecasters and model output it's looking odds-on that a very West based blocking pattern is setting-up!

Bad news for cold lovers in Europe & UK!

 

As our own LRF said, atmospherics will be all wrong this side of christmas for cold and snow, despite what the weather models show.

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2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

As our own LRF said, atmospherics will be all wrong this side of christmas for cold and snow, despite what the weather models show.

Heh, I think you have a much better chance before Christmas than after ;-)

 

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22 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Rule is don’t believe any cold spell is going to happen until its in the reliable time frame.

the second northerly that ecm and gfs were showing until  it started going wrong yesterday was never in that time frame to begin with.

Yet if a milder spell is showing outside of  the reliable time , it nearly always seems to be correct,that’s what frustrates me:wallbash:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes Mild is way more common, especially since late 90's, models still look okay, but soon expect them to downgrade to wetter and windier, after all Dec is the most westerly month of the year, probably joint with Jan

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22 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Pattern change!

Listening to some of the US forecasters and model output it's looking odds-on that a very West based blocking pattern is setting-up!

Bad news for cold lovers in Europe & UK!

 

They the same ones that said Europe into the freezer a few days ago? ;-)

 

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Just fuels my belief that I don't think we will get any proper cold spell till the early 2020s or 2019 at the earliest. This winter is just too soon imo. Perhaps the nice charts we were seeing is a teaser for what we might be getting then but just not yet.

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9 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Never convinced of cold, especially when certain posters enter the MOD thread and start hyping it up to increase their likes reputation, when to anyone with any sense, a disagreement in models means it will, 90 percent of the time, go tights up. It's not dramatic, it's not a roller coaster of a ride, it's just getting plain boring now.

You know what I totally agree with you.

After 5 years of no snow, I honestly thought this year was gona be differet.

Yesterday i let my excitememt at the prospects of potential snow override my better judgement, and I went and brought my kids snow boots and dry suits.

It all my fault, I'm like the kids of death.

I'm giving up on snow now. 

I know it sounds dramatic but i cant handle the constant disappointment year after year anymore, cant believe my daughter is 6 years old and still hasn't seen proper laying snow.

And yes before anyone says it I know we havent even got into proper winter yet, but we all know how this winter is gona go dont we.

Edit. just wanted to add in not sure of who you mean re likes, i was refering to the later part of the post, just to clarify xx

Edited by Snowstalker
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9 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Never convinced of cold, especially when certain posters enter the MOD thread and start hyping it up to increase their likes reputation, when to anyone with any sense, a disagreement in models means it will, 90 percent of the time, go tights up. It's not dramatic, it's not a roller coaster of a ride, it's just getting plain boring now.

Like system should be scrapped, yes a lot do 'fish 4 likes' I certainly don't, just hope eventually, on this forum that we get more and more members admitting the change in our winters since the 90's, I know all people I know admit it, not had anyone saying we don't get less snow now than in 90's and more especially earlier

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Very much expecting downgrades at this stage, obviously you imagine that you will be wrong eventually but after six years of waiting for even the most watered down snowy spell you know the same thing will happen every "winter". Maybe wet snow showers on a few days if we're lucky, lying snow maybe for an hour or two even!

Particularly grating for me as having been abroad (mostly) for the snowier winters of the late 2000s, I fully expected to see something similar when I moved back home in 2011. How wrong I was, nothing since then. :(

We've obviously witnessed a real paradigm shift in winter climate. Snowy winters by and large will clearly be things of the past.

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Oh good. For a moment there I feared coldies might actually get some snow in winter and the mild-lovers would have to struggle on through with only 11.5 months of the year, but I'm delighted to see we've managed to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory once again.

 

:wallbash::wallbash::wallbash:

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I've been model watching and listening to the meteorological experts on here for several years now, and I'm slowly realising that absolutely no one really knows what's actually going to happen with the atmosphere and weather until it actually happens!

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Some members seriously need to take a chill pill, their mood swings from one end of the scale to the other, just like the models have been, is being very tiresome! The 06z gfs is so different to the 00z it's laughable that anyone who is saying comments like it's all over or that we'e looking at a +nao euro heights setup are getting  way too far ahead of themselves.

 just sit back and watch it unfold, it's fascinating seeing the models struggle with the current setup. 

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The Rollercoaster of the Mod/Mad thread, is what I enjoy most about winter.

this seasons opener, has been a corker.

 

if fact, based on the entirely unscientific processes, of I have told nobody it will snow, have not bought any coal in, nor wild bird seed , in anticipation of a freeze fest .

i anticipate a bitter cold winter.

Edited by starstream
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Because mild seems to verify in fl more than cold,that’s why people were writing off the second cold outbreak after the weekend.

Now we have the  very cold run from 06gfs and the next run will probably show mild again in fl!,

maybe ecm will revert to cold again.model watching is never dull in winter that’s for sure

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Because mild seems to verify in fl more than cold,that’s why people were writing off the second cold outbreak after the weekend.

Now we have the  very cold run from 06gfs and the next run will probably show mild again in fl!,

maybe ecm will revert to cold again.model watching is never dull in winter that’s for sure

I think that that is because our real weather is like that: take any day, during the UK's average winter, and it's odds-on that 15 days' later it'll be mild...?

If anything, I think the fact that the models don't appear to recognise this reality, goes a long way towards proving that numerical models are not as 'mild biased' as some folks would have us all believe...?:D

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I do enjoy watching the MOD from a distance.

Model volatility has deceived in the 72/96 time frame in years gone by. Will continue to watch with interest, as the current situation is a fascinating insight into how complicated this science is. I'm not brave enough to offer an opinion in the MOD, but if I had to stake my house on the outcome, I'd say the 12z's will lower expectations again. Twas ever thus.

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