Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

best we can hope for in the modern erah, all I get mostly now, is 1cm of slush, gone by 10am, even if air still 'cold' good old days, snow only thawed when Atlantic won, nowadays thaws can happen in the cold setup

changed massively since the 80's and 90's

Try becoming a mild fan; I did, and it's improved my winters significantly.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Try becoming a mild fan; I did, and it's improved my winters significantly.

in the modern erah, Summer is my favourite season, Winter used to be, as a bairn in 80's and 90's, still cannot like mild, as in my location, mild means wet and windy, and cold means sunny/light winds and bright

for mild, you have an advantage in the dry SE, you can enjoy dry days at 13 degrees

[Mokidugway]

Remember you can't be to careful in your winter preparations, here's just a few things you might need...

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

...for mild, you have an advantage in the dry SE, you can enjoy dry days at 13 degrees

Fair point.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

missed the umbrella and wellies Moki Dugway

[V for Very Cold]

Own up....who’s staying up for the pub run now lol!

[minus 9]

The mod thread now. I'm the biggest snow lover ever. But refuse to get sucked in until t48.

[Don]

In the 1980's it just got cold.  Now we have all this shortwave drama scuppering just about every cold spell going!!

[northwestsnow]

This evenings model update..

[lassie23]

Never convinced of cold, especially when certain posters enter the MOD thread and start hyping it up to increase their likes reputation, when to anyone with any sense, a disagreement in models means it will, 90 percent of the time, go tights up. It's not dramatic, it's not a roller coaster of a ride, it's just getting plain boring now.

Edited November 27, 2017 by lassie23

[northwestsnow]

I'm sure its not just me, there is an air of inevitably about all this, its like following a really crap football team who go 1-0 up at half time every game but then lose 99% of them as we head through the second half.Same way if the models show a cold outlook beyond day 7 you just know whats going to happen- its happened time and time and time again.

Its becoming very deflating and taking the fun out of the chase now, mainly because the chase virtually always ends in disappointment.

I'm  making my new years promise right here right now, i will not believe a single cold chart at 144 or beyond ever again, and i mean ever.

[cyclonic happiness]

We really should know better than chasing 2009/10's Autumn/winter weather. The models are dangling a carrot and 90% of us (including me) go for it, even after every cold spell for the past four years failing (and there must have been at least 20)

 

There's no way that 12/13 years ago when I first started model watching, that the models have got more reliable when it comes to cold spells!!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

We really should know better than chasing 2009/10's Autumn/winter weather. The models are dangling a carrot and 90% of us (including me) go for it, even after every cold spell for the past four years failing (and there must have been at least 20)

 

There's no way that 12/13 years ago when I first started model watching, that the models have got more reliable when it comes to cold spells!!!

pretty much what i just posted.

And the funny thing is, when they do downgrade, the downgrades just keep coming and coming, never works the other way around tho.

If one was betting on cold charts at 144 over the years one would have lost an absolute fortune, in fact, as the advert says, when the fun stops,stop.

 

[Tracy Flick]

All this makes me think of Werner "It Is Not A Significant Bullet" Herzog and the Burden of Dreams.

"We have to get acquainted to this idea that there is no real harmony as we have conceived it. But when I say this, I say this all full of admiration for the [atmosphere]. It is not that I hate it, I love it. I love it very much. But I love it against my better judgement."

[cyclonic happiness]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

pretty much what i just posted.

And the funny thing is, when they do downgrade, the downgrades just keep coming and coming, never works the other way around tho.

If one was betting on cold charts at 144 over the years one would have lost an absolute fortune, in fact, as the advert says, when the fun stops,stop.

 

Why can't they program the computers to model out any cold spells, then they'd be 99% accurate and people would lord them? 

[knocker]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm  making my new years promise right here right now, i will not believe a single cold chart at 144 or beyond ever again, and i mean ever.

Oh you are a wag nws. I would like a pound every time I'd read that from the rest of the boys in the band over the years only for it to be summarily cast aside when someone spots a snowflake in down town Cleethorpes at T300 and the feeding frenzy starts all over again with councils advised to be on red alert.

Edited November 28, 2017 by knocker

[cheshire snow]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm sure its not just me, there is an air of inevitably about all this, its like following a really crap football team who go 1-0 up at half time every game but then lose 99% of them as we head through the second half.Same way if the models show a cold outlook beyond day 7 you just know whats going to happen- its happened time and time and time again.

Its becoming very deflating and taking the fun out of the chase now, mainly because the chase virtually always ends in disappointment.

I'm  making my new years promise right here right now, i will not believe a single cold chart at 144 or beyond ever again, and i mean ever.

Stick to cefax P401 saves alot of pain

C.S

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Oh you are a wag nws. I would like a pound every time I'd read that from the rest of the boys in the band over the years only to be summarily cast aside when someone spots a snowflake in down town Cleethorpes at T300 and the feeding frenzy starts all over again with councils advised to be on red alert.

Were the grit orders cancelled, then?

[northwestsnow]

Just now, knocker said:

Oh you are a wag nws. I would like a pound every time I'd read that from the rest of the boys in the band over the years only to be summarily cast aside when someone spots a snowflake in down town Cleethorpes at T300 and the feeding frenzy starts all over again with councils advised to be on red alert.

Like it knocker, like it..

 

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Were the grit orders cancelled, then?

No need it's been accumulating over the years so much so they had to build extra warehouses.  Rumour has it that leaks from the MOD thread are to blame but these remain unsubstantiated.

[snowblizzard]

31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm sure its not just me, there is an air of inevitably about all this, its like following a really crap football team who go 1-0 up at half time every game but then lose 99% of them as we head through the second half.Same way if the models show a cold outlook beyond day 7 you just know whats going to happen- its happened time and time and time again.

Its becoming very deflating and taking the fun out of the chase now, mainly because the chase virtually always ends in disappointment.

I'm  making my new years promise right here right now, i will not believe a single cold chart at 144 or beyond ever again, and i mean ever.

Don't believe a single cold chart until it's showing at 24 northwestsnow!

Even then, knowing our luck in UK, it would still probably go wrong!

Edited November 28, 2017 by snowblizzard

[Seasonal Trim]

13 hours ago, Nizzer said:

I can see where this is going. Models are going to grab defeat from the jaws of victory. Please god don't let this happen!!!! 

[jvenge]

26 minutes ago, knocker said:

No need it's been accumulating over the years so much so they had to build extra warehouses.  Rumour has it that leaks from the MOD thread are to blame but these remain unsubstantiated.

I know the one. It's opposite the warehouse with all the blocks in and you just follow all the roads that lead to cold to get to it.

 

[SLEETY]

Rule is don’t believe any cold spell is going to happen until its in the reliable time frame.

the second northerly that ecm and gfs were showing until  it started going wrong yesterday was never in that time frame to begin with.

Yet if a milder spell is showing outside of  the reliable time , it nearly always seems to be correct,that’s what frustrates me

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2017 by SLEETY

[James1979]

59 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

We really should know better than chasing 2009/10's Autumn/winter weather. The models are dangling a carrot and 90% of us (including me) go for it, even after every cold spell for the past four years failing (and there must have been at least 20)

 

There's no way that 12/13 years ago when I first started model watching, that the models have got more reliable when it comes to cold spells!!!

It’s like groundhog year every year.  Nothing changes and it won’t be long before failed Spanish plumes are here again.