Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Evening thunder]

Well, the seasonal change in temps from July/August to November has been slightly greater than normal this year, if one cherry picks the warmest days from winter and coolest from summer of course it will seem like there's little variation, but that's nothing new

So the problem is our climate in general rather than any particularly recent phenomena. 

Though in the 2nd half of 2015, and especially December 2015, I may have been inclined to agree...

[Evening thunder]

Having said the above I do have a moan about the current situation:

Well the models are still in general the most boring ever... I'm gunna move to Canada or somewhere where loads of weather actually happens.
Other advantages too...

I'd rather the more mobile solutions come off than a stagnant cloudy SW-SE drift around a Euroslug... that just prolongs the depressing and weatherless conditions.

If the high builds enough to bring cool/sunny and frosty weather even here that's fine but it probably won't and it only takes a slightly stronger jet to push it into the aforementioned set up.

[MidnightSnow]

Hard to know where we stand at the moment after reading the last few pages in the model thread.

Anyone kind enough to wrap it up for a layman?

[cheshire snow]

Christmas week forecast

Will it be cold,will it snow,will it be mild,will it rain,will it be dry.

Will there be floods,will there be blizzards,so many questions

That know one has answers too,not even the models it would seem..

Best just open your curtains each morning and see what the weather 

Is doing

C.S

 

 

 

[Jonathan Bollen]

16 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Christmas week forecast

Will it be cold,will it snow,will it be mild,will it rain,will it be dry.

Will there be floods,will there be blizzards,so many questions

That know one has answers too,not even the models it would seem..

Best just open your curtains each morning and see what the weather 

Is doing

C.S

 

 

 

You don't know what the the person who created the weather can do but he does what he wants. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Changing Skies said:

Quite frankly some of you are being ridiculous. Do you see this winter destined to go pearshaped? 10 days of December have passed, I'll avoid the cliche, we've had several attempts at getting into winter pattern albeit this has been unsuccessful thus far, this is pretty unusual I stress, the seasonal modelling spoken by fergie, is depicting what winter lovers want while background signals may not be conducive right now, whose to say this won't change with everything always in flux? It is a waiting game & if we do not see the northern blocking materialise, with associated winter impacts by end of Feb. I'd understand the 'frustration' as per usual some bad runs pop out and this is thought as the be and end all. It doesn't make the forum a pleasant place to be, if some backed their thoughts with, reasoning fair enough, the mod thread is not a place for an emotional commentary, but some on here just choose to spout wishy washy nonsense, with their thoughts, automatically set with the "safe", option yes 252! Although some may deem it as realism it is no good of a contribution. I've been model watching for a number of years, and this 'season' has been like no other I can recall. 

What do you mean 252? that was the frequency of longwave radio station, ending Jan 2002

252 also first chart of GFS low resolution

[mountain shadow]

It would be interesting to hear from GP about where it went wrong this time.

He was bullish about height rises to the North West yet the complete opposite is occuring.

After last years mis fired torpedo his methodology is looking pretty shakey.

[Snipper]

20 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Christmas week forecast

Will it be cold,will it snow,will it be mild,will it rain,will it be dry.

Will there be floods,will there be blizzards,so many questions

That know one has answers too,not even the models it would seem..

Best just open your curtains each morning and see what the weather 

Is doing

C.S

 

 

 

To be honest I agree. Watch the MAD thread and you think they would forgive their wife whatever she/he did. Ok I have to be PC here.  

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

Incase you haven't noticed it's pouring outside with temps sitting at 12C

Rewind 6 months: it's pouring outside with temps sitting at 16/17C 

whilst there is a temperature and daylight difference the weather hardly reflects that bar 5 or 6 degrees. A few frosty nights and maybe 1 or 2 snow days doesn't differentiate seasons I'm afraid. 

If it wasn't for the leaves missing on the trees, the past couple of days have felt like April! 

I had my heating on in June this year. Today it is not on... 

I suppose you could separate our climate into seasons but not extreme. I'm referring to and I'm sure @johncam was: real seasons like the US/Russia/Canada/Scandinavia etc - boiling summers and freezing winters.

 

So much exaggeration going on, it's almost funny..

First 11 days of June (your 6 month rewind)

Max temp and rainfall, respectively

And i'm not in a particularly great area for mega warmth or heat, and you're telling me you had your heating on? 

[Summer Sun]

42 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Hard to know where we stand at the moment after reading the last few pages in the model thread.

Anyone kind enough to wrap it up for a layman?

 

Next week remaining mild with some rain for all at times

Beyond next week is a bit uncertain

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Next week remaining mild with some rain for all at times

Beyond next week is a bit uncertain

She's certainly dressed for the summer!

[Bristawl Si]

23 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It would be interesting to hear from GP about where it went wrong this time.

He was bullish about height rises to the North West yet the complete opposite is occuring.

After last years mis fired torpedo his methodology is looking pretty shakey.

He did refer to end December/early January though.....i think.

[Jason M]

14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

So much exaggeration going on, it's almost funny..

First 11 days of June (your 6 month rewind)

Max temp and rainfall, respectively

And i'm not in a particularly great area for mega warmth or heat, and you're telling me you had your heating on? 

In fairness I did too. It was brass monkeys in the east that week. He doesn't give his location but I was off work and it didn't get above 7c in this part of the world for several days and the sun didn't come out for a week. In the west it was completely the opposite with warm sunshine. Xmas day last year was actually warmer here than the warmest day that week! Completely mad for June but I rather think that you might owe him an apology .

[Weather-history]

3 hours ago, nn2013 said:

I was thinking - would anyone take winter 1994/5? Mild on and off but the odd snowy interlude in February and March? Better than bugger all. 

I take the whole of 1995 again. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

wow, records broken? at least looks dry (south)

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

In fairness I did too. It was brass monkeys in the east that week. He doesn't give his location but I was off work and it didn't get above 7c in this part of the world for several days and the sun didn't come out for a week. In the west it was completely the opposite with warm sunshine. Xmas day last year was actually warmer here than the warmest day that week! Completely mad for June but I rather think that you might owe him an apology .

I've had a look at a lot of independent weather station around the Essex area, and I can't find any that show a day time max of below 12°C - even then, it was for a few days at the beginning of the month. I still find the "heating being on" comment highly amusing. They say that the British are renowned for moaning about the weather, but some people on here are abusing the privilege - no apology from me i'm afraid. 

[Jason M]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I've had a look at a lot of independent weather station around the Essex area, and I can't find any that show a day time max of below 12°C - even then, it was for a few days at the beginning of the month. I still find the "heating being on" comment highly amusing. They say that the British are renowned for moaning about the weather, but some people on here are abusing the privilege - no apology from me i'm afraid. 

Well even if we work on the basis that i'm wrong (and i'm not), then if your telling me that after several days of thick cloud and temperatures no higher than 12c you wouldnt have put your heating on, then I respectfully suggest your the one stretching the truth . Our house was damn cold.

[Ravelin]

18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

wow, records broken? at least looks dry (south)

If you are talking temperature records, I doubt it. 

2 days later

Although uppers aren't everything when it comes to surface temperature, same as pressure isn't. 

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Well even if we work on the basis that i'm wrong (and i'm not), then if your telling me that after several days of thick cloud and temperatures no higher than 12c you wouldnt have put your heating on, then I respectfully suggest your the one stretching the truth . Our house was damn cold.

I don't even have my heating on now, and it's 11.5°C outside. In fact, I haven't had the heating on in the last four day with temps of 10.7°C, 11.9°C and 11.2°C. So why would I even contemplate putting the heating on in June?

[frogesque]

Dipping a toe into very deep and maybe piranha infested waters here so please go easy.

Many years ago at school in Geog I was taught that the British Isles lay in the path of the Gulf Stream producing on average, warm summers with reasonable rainfall and cool wet winters. Sometimes we had a heatwave thanks to southerlies from Africa etc. and sometimes we had a northerly or easterly cold spell from the Arctic or Siberia.

Forecasting methods and models have improved dramatically over the last 50 odd years or so but fundamentally has anything really changed that much?

Thanks in advance, but I would prefer not to enter the minefield of climate change unless I have to!

[Ben Lewis]

27 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I've had a look at a lot of independent weather station around the Essex area, and I can't find any that show a day time max of below 12°C - even then, it was for a few days at the beginning of the month. I still find the "heating being on" comment highly amusing. They say that the British are renowned for moaning about the weather, but some people on here are abusing the privilege - no apology from me i'm afraid. 

I find it 'highly amusing' that you somehow have placed yourself in my house last June and presumed that I never put the heating on. If you must know it was on in Hertfordshire during those very few cold dark grey days, it was cold and on one day it never got above 11c in my town north of St Albans. 

A little heads up, if a 'Moan' is a problem for you.. you are in the wrong thread! 

[Mapantz]

9 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

I find it 'highly amusing' that you somehow have placed yourself in my house last June and presumed that I never put the heating on. If you must know it was on in Hertfordshire during those very few cold dark grey days, it was cold and on one day it never got above 11c in my town north of St Albans. 

A little heads up, if a 'Moan' is a problem for you.. you are in the wrong thread! 

But you said you don't have your heating on today, and it was 12C, but you did put it on in June when it didn't quite reach 11? That's some threshold!

Edited December 10, 2016 by Mapantz

[Ben Lewis]

8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

But you said you don't have your heating on today, and it was 12C, but you did put it on in June when it didn't quite reach 11? That's some threshold!

Because today has a mild close feel (winter version) from Atlantic air.

Those cold days in June was air orientation from the North Sea, completely different feel and probably felt more noticeable due to a mild May with good amounts of sunshine here and there. 

I mean take yesterday for instance: so mild and in the sun it was spring like, everyone in the office commented how warm it felt and windows even got opened. You certainly couldn't do that on those cold days in June! 

 

 

[Mapantz]

33 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

I think this ECM run should make us realise that FI is FI. When was the last time you saw a 1040HP over the SE of England? ...... and in winter?...

Models are obviously struggling somewhere, if this verifies then... well..

 

Posted this in here instead Stuie..

December 30th 2014

I recorded 1045mb that day

Slightly different positioning, granted. But you never know!

[Snipper]

27 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

 

A little heads up, if a 'Moan' is a problem for you.. you are in the wrong thread! 

Sorry what is the title of this thread?