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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Had a few funny moments in here tonight,thanks guys,this is how it should be:D

thought it was the chat room for a minute,any chance that would open again:)

back to  related and i would like to ramp it up,looks like we could see a 2010 repeat:shok:

bc17ff-GTA5%202015-07-18%2022-37-53-36.j

 

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

2010 repeat:shok:

Don't say that. Never ends well. :fool:

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

Well, we've had the worst snowless period for at least 40 years, nothing that happens now will dissapoint us, we're all beyond that now :-)

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
12 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

Rarely bother with mod thread ,to many egos and blind followers,I use this thread much more fun :rofl:

completely agree.... which makes that thread hard to take seriously if you dont 'play the game' . if you want an unbiased, realistic view on whats really likely to happen, you have to dig hard to find it.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
11 hours ago, snowray said:

Where do you go searching for him in NW London then Lassie, in the wilds of Hampstead Heath isit?

Come to think of it, I think I might have spotted one or two of them on Kilburn high road, they are pretty rough around that way! :shok:

As it goes, I might get myself one for Christmas as well, do they sell any on amazon, you can buy just about anything on there these days, used to be just books.:whistling::cold:

Seen a 

download.jpg

Looks like Boris Johnson in a hairy suit!

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Posted
  • Location: Crawley
  • Location: Crawley

I judge a cold spell by the fact if it is snowy and cold enough to use the sledge.

The last few times I used it was in 2008, 2009, 2010. Those trio of winters from 2008-2010 were incredible.

Since 2010 I have only used it once in Jan 2013 which highlights the rubbish state of our winters!!!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
58 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

completely agree.... which makes that thread hard to take seriously if you dont 'play the game' . if you want an unbiased, realistic view on whats really likely to happen, you have to dig hard to find it.

And use the ignore function quite a bit:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Well the well hyped northern blocking spell later this month looks to be on thin ice app!!!ah well roll on December-jan-feb

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Just had a look at the Temperature profile for Manchester Airport curtousy of the GFS

Granted FI but starting from 17th November a high of  6c and then by  24th November 

Down to a daytime high of 2c,personally at this stage I am not bothered about snow.

Cold Frosty nights and sparkling winter days are just fine by me.Beats 14c and wind and

Rain any day.

C.S. 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

i dont use the ignore function, im not in favour of censorship, and im no fan if the 'like' points system eith, it feeds egos.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i dont use the ignore function, im not in favour of censorship, and im no fan if the 'like' points system eith, it feeds egos.

I agree not a fan of the ignore function,I do like the points system,I think some posters who genuinely put a lot of effort and time into their posts deserve a thanks or a point.

C.S. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, swfc said:

Well the well hyped northern blocking spell later this month looks to be on thin ice app!!!ah well roll on December-jan-feb

What welll hyped spell.Until any sort of cold  spell gets to around t96 I usually ignore it,as most of the time they never materialise in the first place.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

The met office seem behind what the models are showing which is a good sign. 

They never backed cold last winter in their extended forecasts even when the charts were showing it.

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Posted
  • Location: Hockley, Essex
  • Location: Hockley, Essex

Loads of excitement in the models thread.  Having been watching these things for the past few years and get delivered damp coldish squibs ....I am not getting excited but mildly hopeful.

Some comparisons drawn with what happened early winter in 2010.  What happened to the rest of winter for the season (winter 2010/11)?  My mind is blank.

Thanks.

Edited by Weather_Novice
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

i dont use the ignore function, im not in favour of censorship, and im no fan if the 'like' points system eith, it feeds egos.

Ah, but it isn't censorship, everyone else can still read, just you can choose not to. The like thing though I completely agree with.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
3 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

Loads of excitement in the models thread.  Having been watching these things for the past few years and get delivered a damp coldish squibs ....I am not getting excited but mildly hopeful.

Some comparisons drawn with what happened early winter in 2010.  What happened to the rest of winter for the season (winter 2010/11)?  My mind is blank.

Thanks.

After December it was pretty uneventful.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Ah, but it isn't censorship, everyone else can still read, just you can choose not to. The like thing though I completely agree with.

I must stop liking your posts:doh:

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
1 minute ago, Weather_Novice said:

Hence why my mind is a blank I suppose :D ...

 

December onwards is when winter should kick in, but it was over in 2010

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

The met office seem behind what the models are showing which is a good sign. 

They never backed cold last winter in their extended forecasts even when the charts were showing it.

Hey?

The Metoffice were going on about a cold spell for yonks from about mid November (if not before) last year. John Hammond also did a special look ahead to the winter too if you remember, saying that they favoured colder than average conditions. 

Even when the writing was on the wall and we were looking at charts depicting a tightening PV, they were still crowing on about how disorganised the vortex was. Ian Fergusson was in the MOD thread repeatedly saying that they expected the strat and trop to couple sometime towards January when in fact what we were seeing was the strat and trop already coupled in early December. 

I'm sure the posts are out there in the archives.

Unless, of course, you were being sarcastic??

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Hey?

The Metoffice were going on about a cold spell for yonks from about mid November (if not before) last year. John Hammond also did a special look ahead to the winter too if you remember, saying that they favoured colder than average conditions. 

Even when the writing was on the wall and we were looking at charts depicting a tightening PV, they were still crowing on about how disorganised the vortex was. Ian Fergusson was in the MOD thread repeatedly saying that they expected the strat and trop to couple sometime towards January when in fact what we were seeing was the strat and trop already coupled in early December. 

I'm sure the posts are out there in the archives.

Unless, of course, you were being sarcastic??

I can remember one outlook in which 'cold and snow' were suggested, as one possible outcome...What I can't recall, however, was the MetO predicting anything much, other than horrible and boring mid-latitude blocking?

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Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
24 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

December onwards is when winter should kick in, but it was over in 2010

It was over AFTER December. All of December inclusive was winter bar last couple of days. I'd say nothing happened from January on but it's just how you word it I suppose.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I can remember one outlook in which 'cold and snow' were suggested, as one possible outcome...What I can't recall, however, was the MetO predicting anything much, other than horrible and boring mid-latitude blocking?

I wonder if the further outlooks are archived somewhere??

I can remember as clear as day Fergie posting in the model thread suggesting that blocking was expected to be high latitude based- he even spoke of low heights running underneath into Europe. The exact opposite happened!

If we're dealing with technicalities then yes, the SE (especially) was cold at times due to inversion but the actual dynamics leading to the cold couldn't be more different than were expected!

The main issue was that the EC model performed woefully last winter as did the EC seasonal and Glosea (the former suggest widespread +ve height anomalies to our N). 

Edited by CreweCold
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