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Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    November 2010 was exceptional around here too, didn't think it could get that cold from an easterly in November, lots of snow too. It just goes to show that November can deliver the goods, although its a much safer bet from around the 2nd week of December onwards.

    I would love to see a late November re-run, even a decent Northerly with some disturbances in the flow after about 20th November would be very welcome.:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    7 minutes ago, snowray said:

    November 2010 was exceptional around here too, didn't think it could get that cold from an easterly in November, lots of snow too. It just goes to show that November can deliver the goods, although its a much safer bet from around the 2nd week of December onwards.

    I would love to see a late November re-run, even a decent Northerly with some disturbances in the flow after about 20th November would be very welcome.:cold:

    Both of the cold snaps here in 2010 came from direct Northerlies. Easterlies to my area are bitter but don't produce much snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    5 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

    Both of the cold snaps here in 2010 came from direct Northerlies. Easterlies to my area are bitter but don't produce much snow.

    Yes your area must do well from Northerlies and North Westerlies too. We do best here on an Easterly although they can be snowless events for much of the Uk, just producing snow flurries. Ideally its the fabled channel low that is required for a proper dump. Back in the 80's I remember there were a few winters where Atlantic Lows would try to shift the cold air over us producing lots of snow where they stalled as the the cold pushed back west, these days the cold is usually not well established enough and is shifted away pretty quickly.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    49 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

    That month from 25th of November to Boxing Day 2010 was the best winter weather I have ever seen in my area. There was a 5 or 6 day thaw in the middle of two stonking cold snaps, both of which produced in excess of 6 inches of snow cover. I

    One can dream i suppose,such a fantastic spell of weather..a repeat? Probably not to be honest but you never know. The kid like joy of opening the front door to a 3 foot snow drift and the shutting it quickly before it falls in brings out the child in anyone!

    Edited by markyo
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    14 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    Nothing out of the ordinary in the models for mid-Autumn.Signs of the Greenland/Canadian vortex growing but as yet the Atlantic jet not into full gear so the most unsettled conditions further north with quite a lot of dry weather around for many.

    Still enough wavering in the jet stream flow to see the odd burst of Polar air coming south for a day or 2 with the next visit likely around 4/5th November following a few milder days.

    UN120-21.GIF?30-18ECH1-120.GIF?30-0gfsnh-0-120.png?12

    Just the usual interplay between heights further south and the Greenland trough with the most active weather in the far north.

    Nothing out of the ordinary for recent autumns that is true

    But very out of the ordinary with what autumn used to be. Wild and wet conditions interspersed with quieter, atmospheric foggy and frosty weather. Always something happening. Once a great season, autumn is now one long bore thanks to the inflated Azores Slug

    As I have said previously, exactly at the point when we're looking at the weather to do something, the Slug kills any interest. Forums like this are at the risk of dying a death because of weeks of nothingness

    Mods - feel free to move this to moan to another thread if you feel necessary but it is linked to what the models are showing

    PS - at least GFS looks interesting in lal la land I s'pose

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    54 minutes ago, markyo said:

    One can dream i suppose,such a fantastic spell of weather..a repeat? Probably not to be honest but you never know. The kid like joy of opening the front door to a 3 foot snow drift and the shutting it quickly before it falls in brings out the child in anyone!

    Maybe not 3 foot snow drifts but i did have 3 foot icicles hanging from the roof!

    P201210_12.16.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Just model banter/moans please not members.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    On that note I am now ramping a white Christmas for many, maybe not Christmas day itself but just before or after would be great, I have never ramped about Christmas snow before, certainly not this early on but thats what this thread is for after all. November tomorrow, its now that the real fun starts for us snow hunting freaks!:whistling::p

     

    Looking forward to scenes like these:

    images-5.jpg

    images-3.jpg

    images-4.jpg

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

    Loving the 10 day out look,single figures from Thursday on wards,perfect Autumn weather. Might even tempt me to stop wearing shorts!!..for a bit anyway.

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    30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    As suggested by recent meto updates drier towards the SE as the jet fires away to our North so pretty much a contiunation of the mind numbing pattern that persisted through the summer..ie the NW gets the majority of the wet stuff.

     

    Morning yes little disappointed with weather for next week or so but as bobbydog says earlier vortex a key player so maybe by mid November things will change to our coldies favour let's see what models bring us today in later stages surely us coldies deserve a 3 Month blizzard 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Having read the last three pages of the main model pages it would appear that that people don't have reasonable expectations and are a bit despondent. 

    The key things to remember for the next month are.. 

    1) The CFS seasonal is normally cack. The CFS monthlies are only useful within about two weeks of the following month (so 3-5 weeks when we consider whole month anomolies) and the ability to pick out March 13, July 13, Dec 15 does not take away from the fact that it's useless when a month does not have a massive good/bad signal somewhere (i.e. most months).

    2) The vortex does not properly get going over Greenland until the second half of November in most years so the current vortex is not especially stressed. 

    3) Most November/December's do not see a stressed vortex so don't cry if the jet is raging (just hope it's angled so high pressure is near). The important period for us in having a cold winter rather than just cold month is that the zonal wind anomolies (be that caused by wave breaking or a SSW) drop below average during the mid-December to mid-January period. That can leave us in play the rest of the winter. 

    In short, the likes of last November are the exception. Hold out for the period that really matters. 

    I'd also add another two things.. 

    1) The MJO wave that moved across the Pacific appears to have dropped off and the central Pacific trades are raging again so expect a generally westerly pattern as they have produced since late July. 

    u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

    2) The MJO operates on 45-60 day cycle apparently so look for the next big amplification period to occur in mid to late December. It is here that we will find out how resilient this years vortex is. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENSO AND THE MJO

    The MJO is often in a strong relationship with the phase of the ENSO (El Niño and La Niña). The MJO may influence the evolution of the phase of the ENSO cycle because the convection influences the ocean-atmosphere coupling by a varying the surface radiation budget, and evaporation, wind stress and therefore slow interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere boundary layer. Which allows to determine the timing and / or the magnitude of the El Niño and La Niña. The precipitations and equatorial strong westerly winds gusting propagating eastward as they are associated with the MJO, create the oceanic Kelvin waves which affects the appearance of the El Niño phenomenon, moving warm waters of West Pacific eastward reducing the zonal gradient of the sea surface temperature and thus the intensity of the trade winds. For example, the MJO has been important during the boreal winter 1996-1997 preceding the beginning of the stage of a strong El Niño 1997-98.

    Then during the El Niño and La Niña, the MJO is in turn influenced by the anomaly of the SST (sea surface temperature). Because El Niño has a SST warmer than normal in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific and colder than normal in the West. Then reverses to La Niña. During warm El Niño conditions, the anomalies of convection associated with the oscillation seem to penetrate further into the central Pacific. While during La Niña, the MJO is more concentrated to the West with greater activity on the Indian ocean and the Western Pacific. Overall, the MJO tends to be low or absent during the El Niño episodes, while the activity of the MJO is often important during the years with La Niña events.

    http://la.climatologie.free.fr/MJO/MJO-english.htm#ENSO

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
    On 03/11/2017 at 16:18, lassie23 said:

    What utter banal garbage being spewed out by the models at the moment.:bad:

    Excuse me, but havent you seen the latest musings in the MOD thread? A strong siberian high is due to take hold, and this is a key ingredient to a colder Europe. GFS day 16 charts should strongly be viewed favorably. Please disregard the Met Office's glosea, CFS ensembles and all other output favouring milder conditions... the Siberian High is being heralded as our saviour, so its cold all the way*

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    7 minutes ago, draztik said:

    Excuse me, but havent you seen the latest musings in the MOD thread? A strong siberian high is due to take hold, and this is a key ingredient to a colder Europe. GFS day 16 charts should strongly be viewed favorably. Please disregard the Met Office's glosea, CFS ensembles and all other output favouring milder conditions... the Siberian High is being heralded as our saviour, so its cold all the way*

    woohoo:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    7 minutes ago, draztik said:

    Excuse me, but havent you seen the latest musings in the MOD thread? A strong siberian high is due to take hold, and this is a key ingredient to a colder Europe. GFS day 16 charts should strongly be viewed favorably. Please disregard the Met Office's glosea, CFS ensembles and all other output favouring milder conditions... the Siberian High is being heralded as our saviour, so its cold all the way*

    take the pee if you like mate. i'm just posting what the models are showing. i remember in 2010, all the long range seasonals were going for a mild winter, right up until the december update. we all know how that winter turned out....

    Edited by bobbydog
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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
    2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    take the Tut if you like mate. i'm just posting what the models are showing. i remember in 2010, all the long range seasonals were going for a mild winter, right up until the december update. we all know how that winter turned out....

    The winter you speak of, was such a rare event - when everything went right, depending on how you view it. I do hope you are right, but I am so utterly convinced to the contrary, that its hard to ignore what I see as the glaringly obvious - the much fabled cold start to November has come and gone... the models led and the folk followed. There are only so many fingers I am willing to be bitten this year. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    take the pee if you like mate. i'm just posting what the models are showing. i remember in 2010, all the long range seasonals were going for a mild winter, right up until the december update. we all know how that winter turned out....

    I agree with you and the models aren't always right but, 2010 I'm sure the met office did state the greater chance of the weather turning colder late November onwards?

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Have to say pretty uninspiring charts presently...if you like Pm air intersected by Tm air then this is for you. Nothing too inspiring, just wish we'd see a halt in this west to east transition which has largely been happening since early June (other than 2 weeks at the start of September).

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    6 minutes ago, draztik said:

    The winter you speak of, was such a rare event - when everything went right, depending on how you view it. I do hope you are right, but I am so utterly convinced to the contrary, that its hard to ignore what I see as the glaringly obvious - the much fabled cold start to November has come and gone... the models led and the folk followed. There are only so many fingers I am willing to be bitten this year. 

    the year before was a '"rare event" as well... i think people expect too much too soon. winter lasts 3 months and weather patterns now, can have an effect weeks later.

    2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    I agree with you and the models aren't always right but, 2010 I'm sure the met office did state the greater chance of the weather turning colder late November onwards?

    the met office might well have done but the long rangers were going mild. the glosea didnt show cold until the december update and the met are saying colder (though settled) for the end of nov into dec. i'll take a boring december if we get a cracking january!

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    the year before was a '"rare event" as well... i think people expect too much too soon. winter lasts 3 months and weather patterns now, can have an effect weeks later.

    the met office might well have done but the long rangers were going mild. the glosea didnt show cold until the december update and the met are saying colder (though settled) for the end of nov into dec. i'll take a boring december if we get a cracking january!

    So would I :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    I wouldn't take any notice of what the seasonal models are showing for the winter.if they were showing negative temps of -10 c over Europe for DJF ,I'd still ignore them.

     

    Complete waste of time ,I don't know why anyone bothers with them.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, D.V.R said:

    I agree with you and the models aren't always right but, 2010 I'm sure the met office did state the greater chance of the weather turning colder late November onwards?

    They did indeed and they were absolutely spot on!  I think around mid November they started forecasting a possible very cold spell developing late in the month lasting well into December.  Unfortunately, their forecast in late December 2010 for a cold January didn't go so well.  GP had an excellent winter forecast that year, correctly predicting the deep cold to lose its grip in late December and not return, with a very mild February to follow an average January.

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