Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[cheese]

23 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Indeed, only 2015 has been cooler than average, and even then it was only very slight. It's about time we had some cooler summers

There are parts of Europe that haven't had a below-average month for 3 years or more. That is what we need in the UK! 

[draztik]

2 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Indeed, only 2015 has been cooler than average, and even then it was only very slight. It's about time we had some cooler summers

Indeed, well said.

[reef]

4 hours ago, cheese said:

Thing is, our summers prior to 2007 were warming quite nicely. Since 2007 summer temperatures in the UK have basically ground to a halt or even reversed despite other parts of the year breaking records for warmth and mildness. And if you look at other places in Europe, they have warmed up significantly in summer over the past 10 years while we have not. At the current rate even northern Scandinavia will have warmer summers than much of England because our summer temperatures have basically flat-lined while theirs have skyrocketed (relative to the old averages).

Indeed, I would be surprised if summers in the UK show much if any warming at all when the 1991-2020 averages are released but I have no doubt the other three seasons will show big increases. I bet the 1991-2020 averages will show summers have gotten cloudier as well (but again the other seasons getting sunnier).

The difference between the seasons in the UK continues to get smaller.. and for people like myself who appreciate four seasons, this is not a positive development. No, the UK has never been a good place for four-season lovers, but it is getting progressively worse. And of course if you like warm or hot weather, you want warming to occur in summer primarily, because that's when it is actually beneficial.

1991-2017 averages as they stand with the figure in brackets in comparison to the 1981-2010 averages :

JAN: 4.6C (+0.2C)
FEB: 4.8C (+0.4C)
MAR: 6.8C (+0.2C)
APR: 8.9C (+0.4C)
MAY: 11.9C (+0.2C)
JUN: 14.6C (+0.1C)
JUL: 16.7C (equal)
AUG: 16.5C (+0.1C)
SEP: 14.2C (+0.2C)
OCT: 10.9C (+0.2C)
NOV: 7.4C (+0.3C)
DEC: 4.9C (+0.3C)

Winter: 4.8C (+0.3C)
Spring: 9.2C (+0.3C)
Summer: 15.9C (equal)
Autumn: 10.9C (+0.3C)

So on average the summer months aren't any worse, but there's a definite trend of less of / little increase compared to other months / seasons.

I would imagine the reason we see such weird patterns (like the warmer 90s summers) is because natural cycles affect things as well as background warming. Indeed, the 1988-2008 period saw mean temperatures much higher than background warming might suggest, which could mean recent years have simply returned to trend. Winters on average flipped in a similar way post-1988, but dropped back between 2008-2013, before warming again in recent years.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

but as expected winter months are worse, that 0.3° can make hell of a difference to snow at low levels

[Matthew.]

15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but as expected winter months are worse, that 0.3° can make hell of a difference to snow at low levels

The sea temperature personally think is more important around the Uk. This is what I look at in early December. Not a 100% but gives a good indication to the type of winter on the way

[mushymanrob]

well thats it, i AM throwing in the towel for decent summer heat this year.

swifts have gone
lilies are over
jasmine and buddliea about over
nights drawing in
lower level sun.

oh well i did enjoy 11 days of 25c+ which is more then many recent summers, early too, i like heat in june.

 

[stainesbloke]

26 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

well thats it, i AM throwing in the towel for decent summer heat this year.

swifts have gone
lilies are over
jasmine and buddliea about over
nights drawing in
lower level sun.

oh well i did enjoy 11 days of 25c+ which is more then many recent summers, early too, i like heat in june.

 

Yep, me too. At least my area had a great first third of summer and some epic thunderstorms, before it all just went so horribly wrong. 

[Azazel]

Same for me. Such a lovely promising start but it's been utter dross since then.

time to hibernate until March. 

Enjoy the wet and windy winter guys 

[markyo]

Can't complain at all....Never used the aircon as less!! Feeling rather flush at the moment regarding the leccy bill But fully understand many folk are normal,so its not been good at all and not looking like anything on the horizon also heat wise............thankfully

Edited August 6, 2017 by markyo

[sundog]

Yet again looking like another disappointing aug, although personnaly im fairly ambivalent when it comes to the weather in the summer. Just dont want  another poor aug to be followed by another warm sept and then autumn to last for 6 months (i like autumn but would also like a winter after it).  Please god not more of the same yet again this yr.

 

[karyo]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

Can't complain at all....Never used the aircon as less!! Feeling rather flush at the moment regarding the leccy bill But fully understand many folk are normal,so its not been good at all and not looking like anything on the horizon also heat wise............thankfully

The nights have been lovely for sleeping :-)

[karyo]

12 hours ago, cheese said:

There are parts of Europe that haven't had a below-average month for 3 years or more. That is what we need in the UK! 

Many parts of the Balkans and the Med that are struggling to contain the forest fires seem to disagree!

[TonyH]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

well thats it, i AM throwing in the towel for decent summer heat this year.

swifts have gone
lilies are over
jasmine and buddliea about over
nights drawing in
lower level sun.

oh well i did enjoy 11 days of 25c+ which is more then many recent summers, early too, i like heat in june.

 

Swifts still here.

[knocker]

14 hours ago, cheese said:

There are parts of Europe that haven't had a below-average month for 3 years or more. That is what we need in the UK! 

Yes indeed especially through Dec-March.

[Daniel*]

The hottest temps of last year IMBY occurred in metrological Autumn - there's no flick of a switch it's a gradual process. 35c in mid September I recorded, while perhaps exceptional it shows there is still time, certainly not the time to throw the towel for heat for southern inhabitants at least. This month hasn't started too bad. Pretty nice out there right now a fair chunk has been good! 

@cheese I find that hard to believe do you have evidence to support that assertion? 

Edited August 6, 2017 by Daniel*

[Buzz]

6 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

well thats it, i AM throwing in the towel for decent summer heat this year.

swifts have gone
lilies are over
jasmine and buddliea about over
nights drawing in
lower level sun.

oh well i did enjoy 11 days of 25c+ which is more then many recent summers, early too, i like heat in june.

 

My Buddleia are still in full swing with more buds developing - have seen a nice distribution of butterflies too (Red Admiral, Tortoiseshell, Peacock, Cabbage White, Meadow Brown, etc).

[cheese]

3 hours ago, karyo said:

Many parts of the Balkans and the Med that are struggling to contain the forest fires seem to disagree!

I don't live there though!

[Mokidugway]

Another crap day ,I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad...

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

The hottest temps of last year IMBY occurred in metrological Autumn - there's no flick of a switch it's a gradual process. 35c in mid September I recorded, while perhaps exceptional it shows there is still time, certainly not the time to throw the towel for heat for southern inhabitants at least. This month hasn't started too bad. Pretty nice out there right now a fair chunk has been good! 

@cheese I find that hard to believe do you have evidence to support that assertion? 

I'll try to dig it out, but on another forum I use someone from Zagreb in Croatia posted stats showing that they hadn't had a below-average month for 33 months or something to that effect.

[karyo]

6 minutes ago, cheese said:

I'll try to dig it out, but on another forum I use someone from Zagreb in Croatia posted stats showing that they hadn't had a below-average month for 33 months or something to that effect.

January was below average in the Balkans, in fact it was severe cold is many parts so I doubt Croatia escaped.

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

January was below average in the Balkans, in fact it was severe cold is many parts so I doubt Croatia escaped.

Yes, this year - though the post I'm referring to was made sometime last year if I recall so it might not be true now.

Either way, below-average months have been very few and far between in that part of the world, and the summers especially have been very hot in recent years. Not that I want the level of heat they have seen, but I'd sure as hell love a few sunny, 21-25C days.. these endlessly high teen days are driving my nuts.

Edited August 6, 2017 by cheese

[karyo]

24 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yes, this year - though the post I'm referring to was made sometime last year if I recall so it might not be true now.

Either way, below-average months have been very few and far between in that part of the world, and the summers especially have been very hot in recent years. Not that I want the level of heat they have seen, but I'd sure as hell love a few sunny, 21-25C days.. these endlessly high teen days are driving my nuts.

I agree with the sentence in bold.

Somehow my nuts like it refreshingly cool. 

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, TonyH said:

Swifts still here.

theres a few stragglers here, but they arent in 'summer mode' (breeding) where they are chasing around screaming.. the northerlies midweek will certainly see the last of them

plus its destroyed what was looking good for butterflies/moths.. humingbird hawkmoths and marbles whites have been migrating north when we were warm and dry..

how many more crap augusts must we endure?... its become the worst month of the year.

[Matthew.]

Yes it's been quite a poor decade for good Augusts. 10,11, 15 in that category. 06 and 08 in the previous decade. The 90's were a great decade with the 40's, 50's and 60's even poorer as a rule. Lets hope the 2nd half of the month turns things around.

Edited August 6, 2017 by Matthew.

[stainesbloke]

This is what annoys the most in summer in this vile climate - endless cloud. If it was raining, thundering, etc fine (briefly) then move away/dissipate and let the sun and blue skies appear. Today has been a better day than most over the past 3 weeks (reached average temperatures, hurrah!) but yet again, way too much infill that just serves no purpose but to infuriate. I bet by 7pm it will magically disappear leaving a chilly, clear night.