Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, markyo said:

Latest charts look totally disgusting,every bit of me that can be crossed will be that a lot of modification takes place rapidly!

Mark says that, means summer, 

[markyo]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Mark says that, means summer, 

I like to keep folk informed....however bad the news is!

[markyo]

37 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Tell me about it. All the signs are there for the Armageddon beginning next Tuesday. Its a total contrast to the 0 and 6Z though and the GEM isn't on board either. I'm hoping with all my heart its an outlier, but I don't think I'm that lucky.

Not looking good for Autumn/Winter either from the long range signals either. This is shaping up to be one rubbish year weather-wise for me.

We must pray....were's Bruce Willis when you meed him when Armageddon is approaching!

[Guest]

Gotta love this thread when a warm spells shows up in the output 

 

[Ice Man 85]

Pretty much sums me up right now.

[Ice Man 85]

Just now, Steel City Skies said:

Gotta love this thread when a warm spells shows up in the output 

 

22 is warm. What the GFS is showing is stifling, humid and uncomfortable.

[Mark wheeler]

Look away now summer coldies , nice charts for summer lovers of a bit of settled warmth .

[Ice Man 85]

6 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Look away now summer coldies , nice charts for summer lovers of a bit of settled warmth .

If you class low 30s as warm (hell, most of you do). And I've never once advocated cold weather in the Summer. I'd take 20-22 (which is above average for us) with no problem. Sadly though, we clearly cannot have pleasant weather in the UK. As soon as HP shows itself, we get outputs like this; humid and uncomfortable with the lovely 18-21c nights that go with it. Bit ironic coming from someone that doesn't like oppressive temperatures like you.

Edited July 11, 2017 by Ice Man 85
more to add.

[Ice Man 85]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

ECMWF out soon.....

From my my limited knowledge of interpreting the ECM, its going the same way as the GFS. GEM on its own right now and not many take it seriously anyway.

 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

It looks awesome for IMBY, temps low-mid 20's, probably clear blue skies as well?

[DAVID SNOW]

4 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

From my my limited knowledge of interpreting the ECM, its going the same way as the GFS. GEM on its own right now and not many take it seriously anyway.

 

ECM not as hot as the GFS, long way to go before anything is nailed here though......

[Daniel*]

We have it easy 

 

[Ice Man 85]

8 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

ECM not as hot as the GFS, long way to go before anything is nailed here though......

What is it showing out of interest? I would have though 24-25 at least.

[DAVID SNOW]

That's a tad on the warm side Dan.

GFS12z det, near the top of its ensembles.

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

That's a tad on the warm side Dan.

GFS12z det, near the top of its ensembles.

I noticed that about the ensembles. Still those same colours on the thickness charts produced upper 20s back in June for my area.

[DAVID SNOW]

Just now, Ice Man 85 said:

What is it showing out of interest? I would have though 24-25 at least.

GFS favours more of  a continental feed, ECM, bit more of a North Sea influence.

I could be desperately  hope casting though.

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

GFS favours more of  a continental feed, ECM, bit more of a North Sea influence.

I could be desperately  hope casting though.

I fear you might be. We really need this country in a more northernly latitude. Would actually give us a better chance of proper winter too (temp-wise at least), which the long range charts are looking to deny us again. Those in cumbria etc might want to invest in flood insurance.

[DAVID SNOW]

5 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I noticed that about the ensembles. Still those same colours on the thickness charts produced upper 20s back in June for my area.

Next week is high summer, and it looks like we will have to take one on the chin, but hopefully not a beating...

[Spurry]

Great to see the Azores high building into Scandinavia next week, we'll be in Western Sweden between the 20-25th July so hoping for some long warm sunny days, to relax, swim ,soak up the sun and drink lots.

Came back from S.E Spain on Sunday night where the temp was around 34c to 2 days of awful drizzly dross

 

Edited July 11, 2017 by Spurry

[DAVID SNOW]

2 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I fear you might be. We really need this country in a more northernly latitude. Would actually give us a better chance of proper winter too (temp-wise at least), which the long range charts are looking to deny us again. Those in cumbria etc might want to invest in flood insurance.

I'm optimistic regarding the coming winter.

ENSO neutral.

East based QBO.

Low solar activity.

Its about bloody time......

[Mark wheeler]

1 hour ago, Ice Man 85 said:

If you class low 30s as warm (hell, most of you do). And I've never once advocated cold weather in the Summer. I'd take 20-22 (which is above average for us) with no problem. Sadly though, we clearly cannot have pleasant weather in the UK. As soon as HP shows itself, we get outputs like this; humid and uncomfortable with the lovely 18-21c nights that go with it. Bit ironic coming from someone that doesn't like oppressive temperatures like you.

Cmon , it was a light hearted post, of course 20-22 is not cold however surely you cannot begrudge some areas in the uk that have hardly gone  above 15c to 16c this summer . As for my profile that you have hinted at , what I am referring to ( oppressive heat ) I once went to Seville on a coach from Faro Portugal to look at their beautiful city , when we left faro it was 37c and felt quite pleasant with it due to sea breezes , however when we arrived at Seville and stepped off the coach we were greeted with temperatures of 46c and hog humidity so that's the impressive heat I am referring too a bit of a difference to low 30s , the only time I admit to it feeling too oppressive for me here was one year when london almost reached 38c again in high humidity, I'm also not going to lie and say the daily commute on Londons trains is enjoyable in any heatwave however it doesn't last for ever and I'd rather this than having it pour down or have 20-22c as higher temps are so much more useful . Better for BBQs better for the seaside to name just 2. So for me low 30s hot but not too oppressive , once this is over ( summer ) roll on the hunt for cold and snow . 

Here is the last chart form the ecm , everbody gets in on the action . 

Edited July 11, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[Evening thunder]

A few of you should just be glad you don't gets the summers that nearly all of the human population experience.. how would you actually cope? The UK is one of the easiest places to get settled weather without it getting above the low 20's in summer.

Also if it really is such a problem, invest in some aircon unless you're really strapped for cash,  if it seems expensive just think that many spend £1000's for a week in the sun.

and I wouldn't worry too much about charts for winter yet  

[Ice Man 85]

4 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

A few of you should just be glad you don't gets the summers that nearly all of the human population experience.. how would you actually cope? The UK is one of the easiest places to get settled weather without it getting above the low 20's in summer.

Also if it really is such a problem, invest in some aircon unless you're really strapped for cash,  if it seems expensive just think that many spend £1000's for a week in the sun.

and I wouldn't worry too much about charts for winter yet  

Its all relative, Evening Thunder.

My income does not stretch to an investment in aircon nor the electricity bill that would arise from using it. And I cannot think of a summer that has stayed in the low 20s with high pressure in recent years. Its either damp and humid or hot and humid. Never pleasant.

[draztik]

There may be trouble ahead....

Edited July 11, 2017 by draztik

[Ice Man 85]

8 minutes ago, draztik said:

If some of these charts come off, people in parts of France, Spain and dare I say, Southern England will die due to this seemingly incessant heat which is about to show its ugly head.

You're wasting your breath Draztik; they *really* don't care. They aren't content with a spell of settled but *warm* weather (our average temps or so), they want oppressive, humid muck and it looks like they're going to get their wish.

Time and time again us cold lovers have been denied cool autumns and cold winters, by the Azores High. Now its going to deny us bearable temperatures. I really wish the bloody thing didn't exist. Its looking like I'll have a breakdown before the weather does going from those awful charts.

Edited July 11, 2017 by Ice Man 85
more to add.