Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[cheese]

23 minutes ago, draztik said:

At least there's old faithful... (knocker), who merely posts what he sees, without hope or expectation. And even when he does muse, it's tempered. We could all learn a lesson from this particular poster. 

Your endless fawning of knocker is bordering on the unusual now. Do you have a secret crush on him? Do we need to get you two a room?

Edited July 10, 2017 by cheese

[draztik]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

Your endless fawning of knocker is bordering on the unusual now. Do you have a secret crush on him? Do we need to get you two a room?

Don't hope-cast, and maybe you'll get some draztik crushing

(i sense you're feeling a little hard done by)

[cheese]

Just now, draztik said:

Don't hope-cast, and maybe you'll get some draztik crushing

(i sense you're feeling a little hard done by)

[summer blizzard]

It would appear last night's Euro may be a little optimistic..

[knocker]

14 minutes ago, cheese said:

Your endless fawning of knocker is bordering on the unusual now. Do you have a secret crush on him? Do we need to get you two a room?

Actually the subject of fawning on others is very applicable in the MOD thread where mass infatuation of those who dwell on Mount Olympus is rife.

The latter only have to fart to immediately attract ten "likes" with another ten pending depending on the quality of the aroma. Critical appraisal of the content is deemed quite unnecessary

Alas my fawning days are long gone, if there ever were any.

 

Edited July 10, 2017 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, draztik said:

Yes mushy man, we can always cherry pick - as you like to do with those anomaly charts from NOAA. As memory serves, you recently posted one in MOD thread as evidence of an impending UK warm/dry spell - only to come in the next day *when it changed* to say, "I broke the cardinal rule and allowed my emotions to get in the way". Deary me! and seemingly, here you go again...

as for the rest of the model thread, it really is an interesting place in the mornings....

*What do we want? Heat. When do we want it? Now* ... therefore, any slight wobble in the models is seen as a massive downgrade. This happens each and every day! Then when the opposite takes hold, 'heatwave on the way, to the south'..... regardless of where the poster is... *ensuant fanfare* 

At least there's old faithful... (knocker), who merely posts what he sees, without hope or expectation. And even when he does muse, it's tempered. We could all learn a lesson from this particular poster. 

thats true,  i did jump the gun last time breaking the cardinal rule... but isnt speculating allowed? i hope youre as keen to pull up those hopecasting fi cold in winter as you are for us heat lovers adding a little hope in the summer!

great respect to knocker, top member, top poster. but what ive done today is commented on what the anoms are saying, which is exactly what knocks is doing.

[Seasonal Trim]

Is it bash a poster time in here again? I thought this was reserved for Autumn/Winter!

 

It's just like a playground in here sometimes. 

[markyo]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Actually the subject of fawning on others is very applicable in the MOD thread where mass infatuation of those who dwell on Mount Olympus is rife.

The latter only have to fart to immediately attract ten "likes" with another ten pending depending on the quality of the aroma. Critical appraisal of the content is deemed quite unnecessary

Alas my fawning days are long gone, if there ever were any.

 

The Scottish thread has a severe wind problem then

[Northernlights]

Although not perfect haymaking weather recently there have always been dryish perods between the spells of rain and the warmth and sun of the late spring and early summer have pushed on crop growth which is now about two weeks ahead of normal. In fact today  I  am cultivating turnips which should meet across the rows next week long before the early August norm. Just hope the hints of more sustained dry spells come off for haymaking.

[knocker]

Not to forget the ECMWF forecast model upgrades tomorrow at 12z.

[sparky1972]

afternoon all, i for one am hoping we get some heat towards the end of the month, we are having a week in wales, where i hear the weather is always iffy, lol, but first i am more interested in sundays weather, met office say dry, weatheroutlook says rain, im hoping for dry as off to silverstone for the Grand Prix

[Gael_Force]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not to forget the ECMWF forecast model upgrades tomorrow at 12z.

....and the new GFS goes live on the 19th. We've not seen much mention of the new version that has been running in parallel on Meteociel.

[Paul]

As ever, can we keep the discussion in here to the weather/models and not other members - it's unfair on all involved when it descends to that level. 

For those interested in the GFS upgrade, this is what's happening:

Quote

Effective on or about Wednesday July 19, 2017, beginning with the
1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers
for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the Global
Forecast Systems (GFS) Analysis and Forecast System as follows:

- Changes to the model components
- Changes to the data assimilation and tropical storm
relocation components
- Changes to the post-processing
- Changes to output products

1) Changes to the Global Forecast System Global Spectral Model
(GSM) components:

- Implement GSM source code in NOAA Environmental Modeling System
(NEMS) framework.
- Upgrade to asynchronous quilting for scalable and efficient
write component in NEMS GSM. Asynchronous quilting means that the
model writes out chunks of data to disk in a non-sequential
manner. This improves I/O efficiency.
- Replace spectral history file output (sigma files) with new
nemsio binary files on model native grid. Documentation of nemsio
format including data structure, interface, how to open, read,
write, and MPI I/O support are at
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/NEMS/nemsio.php and nemsio library
at http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/codes/nwprod/lib/nemsio.
- Implement Near Surface Sea Temperature (NSST) to replace Real-
Time Global SST (RTGSST) to provide more realistic ocean boundary
conditions.
- Upgrade deep and shallow convection schemes with scale- and
aerosol-aware features along with convective cloudiness
enhancement.
- Modify Rayleigh damping to improve temperature and wind
forecasts in the upper stratosphere.
- Upgrade the land surface model to increase ground heat flux
under deep snow; and unify snow cover fraction and snow albedo.
- Use new high-resolution MODIS-based snow-free albedo, maximum
snow albedo, soil type and vegetation type.
- Upgrade surface layer parameterization scheme to modify the
roughness-length formulation and introduce a stability parameter
constraint in the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory to prevent the
land-atmosphere system from decoupling.

2) Changes to the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and
Tropical Storm Relocation:

- Upgrade GDAS and Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to use nemsio
binary files.
- Implement Near Sea-Surface Temperature (NSST) Analysis.
- Implement CrIS full resolution data assimilation capability.
- Implement readiness for new Geostationary Operational
Environmental Satellite (GOES-16), Joint Polar Satellite System
(JPSS-2) and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,
Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC-2) data assimilation capability.
- Extend Regional Advanced Television Infrared Observation
Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS)
Retransmission Services (RARS) and Direct Broadcast Network
(DBNet) capability.
- Implement bug fix to cloud water increment in Gridpoint
Statistical Interpolation (GSI).
- Upgrade land surface type specification in Community Radiative
Transfer Model (CRTM).
- Update data monitoring for Megha-tropiques Sounder for Probing
Vertical Profiles of Humidity (SAPHIR) and Global Precipitation
Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) radiances.
- Assimilate Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)
Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) and implement log-normal wind
quality control for AMVs.
- Assimilate Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
system (GOES) clear-air water vapor winds.
- Assimilate additional global navigation satellite system (GNSS)
-Radio Occultation (RO) observations.
- Modify pressure and hybrid coordinates transformation during
the storm relocation.
- Change relocation of the vorticity and divergence fields to the
relocation of u,v wind components.
- Remove bogus Tropical Storm/Hurricane data for use in Data
Assimilation.
- Assimilate Global Hawk dropsonde data when available.
- Upgrade data assimilation monitoring package.

3) Changes to the post-processing

- Upgrade post-processing software to use new nemsio model
output.
- Implement continuity equation to derive omega on grid space for
new nems model output only.
- Modify interpolation procedure for all categorical fields
including land mask, icing severity and precipitation types
products to use nearest neighbor interpolation.
- Change interpolation method for In-Cloud Turbulence Potential
(CTP) and CB cover (Horizontal Extent of Cumulonimbus) from
'linear' to 'nearest neighbor' to avoid averaging their own
specific negative value with normal values when doing grid
conversion.
- Users are advised to screen out and not use soil moisture
values above 0.468 (the maximum porosity among all soil types) in
GFS output files. Values above 0.468 are flag values associated
with permanent deep-layer land ice. The land surface model does
not predict soil moisture at land ice points.

 

[DAVID SNOW]

Good news about the temperatures for the weekend, temps a little uncomfortable for the south again,1 day, maybe 2, then cooler thereafter, as for the north, no heat, then much cooler after the weekend.

GFS12z.

[markyo]

27 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Good news about the temperatures for the weekend, temps a little uncomfortable for the south again,1 day, maybe 2, then cooler thereafter, as for the north, no heat, then much cooler after the weekend.

GFS12z.

Joyful news,long may it continue

[mushymanrob]

i sometimes wonder if others are viewing the same charts as i am. the gfs 12z is a great run, plenty of warm sunny weather which i calm air with a high sitting on top of us, will feel very pleasant in the strong sun with temps hitting the mid 20s. it wont feel a humid/muggy though as it will this weekend.

another thing to note about the gfs outputs - its very keen to make high pressure the dominant feature, which at this time of the year would be toying with a real hot spell.

oh, and that colder northerly blast in deep fi will not happen, its clearly an outlier. sorry heatophobes, i reckon youll have to wait a couple of months yet before it really does cool down.

[DAVID SNOW]

32 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i sometimes wonder if others are viewing the same charts as i am. the gfs 12z is a great run, plenty of warm sunny weather which i calm air with a high sitting on top of us, will feel very pleasant in the strong sun with temps hitting the mid 20s. it wont feel a humid/muggy though as it will this weekend.

another thing to note about the gfs outputs - its very keen to make high pressure the dominant feature, which at this time of the year would be toying with a real hot spell.

oh, and that colder northerly blast in deep fi will not happen, its clearly an outlier. sorry heatophobes, i reckon youll have to wait a couple of months yet before it really does cool down.

Yes the GFS 12z is a good run, as it shows no heat waves, all in all pretty average for mid/late July.

[mushymanrob]

41 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Yes the GFS 12z is a good run, as it shows no heat waves, all in all pretty average for mid/late July.

tbh id have thought its generally above average, but i guess that depends upon cloud cover, it could be like august 06 , dry anticyclonic but cloudy. so its down to sunshine, because in clear calm air we can grow our own heat in the strong sun. probably a large diurnal temp range, but hey, lets just see, as long as theres no monsoon then all is good.

[DAVID SNOW]

18 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

tbh id have thought its generally above average, but i guess that depends upon cloud cover, it could be like august 06 , dry anticyclonic but cloudy. so its down to sunshine, because in clear calm air we can grow our own heat in the strong sun. probably a large diurnal temp range, but hey, lets just see, as long as theres no monsoon then all is good.

Above at times, yes, and some nice july weather at times, but with no heat waves, I would bank that rob.

[Wimbledon88]

Why do so many folk on the mod thread hate the idea of some rain every now and again. We've been sweltering down here for god knows how long and the rain is sorely needed.Hopefully a nice drop tommorow,but lets wait and see.

And,dare I say it,its actually a different type of weather!

Max 20c in London tommorow,bliss!! Mind you,going on the last 3 days temp forecasts for here,it ll probably be 27c.

[DAVID SNOW]

9 minutes ago, SW1988 said:

Why do so many folk on the mod thread hate the idea of some rain every now and again. We've been sweltering down here for god knows how long and the rain is sorely needed.Hopefully a nice drop tommorow,but lets wait and see.

And,dare I say it,its actually a different type of weather!

Max 20c in London tommorow,bliss!! Mind you,going on the last 3 days temp forecasts for here,it ll probably be 27c.

Pretty safe with 21 max tomorrow.

[mushymanrob]

10 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Above at times, yes, and some nice july weather at times, but with no heat waves, I would bank that rob.

it depends what constitutes a heatwave.... i use the old bbc weather definition - 25c+ as 'hot'.  whilst currently theres no 'august 95' style heatwave predicted on the charts, we are very close to one evolving and there probably will be 'mini heatwaves' especially in the south.

yes, ill be happy to bank whats on offer, but i certainly wont rule out any heat in the next 4 weeks in fact im certain there will be some, and possibly a lengthier more widespread one is surely a distinct possibility?

[markyo]

Latest charts look totally disgusting,every bit of me that can be crossed will be that a lot of modification takes place rapidly!

[Ice Man 85]

27 minutes ago, markyo said:

Latest charts look totally disgusting,every bit of me that can be crossed will be that a lot of modification takes place rapidly!

Tell me about it. All the signs are there for the Armageddon beginning next Tuesday. Its a total contrast to the 0 and 6Z though and the GEM isn't on board either. I'm hoping with all my heart its an outlier, but I don't think I'm that lucky.

Not looking good for Autumn/Winter either from the long range signals either. This is shaping up to be one rubbish year weather-wise for me.

[DAVID SNOW]

ECMWF out soon.....