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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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27 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

500HPA GPDM and UK MSLP 850c both on ECM output.

Well IM you have to make a judgement call using the 850mb temp and any other information you have available. It's not that accurate and open to a fair bit adjustment either side. Without going into a great deal of detail you have to assume a lapse rate (I'm sure there are explanations of these in the learners area or just google it) which is just the rate a parcel of air with different characteristics will cool when rising or, for our purposes, will warm on descending. Thus once you have decided on the rate it's just a matter of doing a little calculation using the 850mb height and temp..In practice people tend to use some sort of rule of thumb such as doubling the 850mb temp or adding 15C, well I'm assuming they do, some may well use other methods.

This is based on the fact that dry air will rise and cool (and conversely) at 9.8C/km and a ball park figure for the 850mb height is 1500m. In practice the figure will most likely  be less than this But the lapse rate can be affected by various things plus in clear air in hot weather surface heating also has to be taken into account. It's a bit hit and miss as is this brief attempt at an explanation but it will probably pay you to make a visit to the learners area as mentioned.

Anyway I hope this helps. :)

Edited by knocker
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10 hours ago, knocker said:

Well IM you have to make a judgement call using the 850mb temp and any other information you have available. It's not that accurate and open to a fair bit adjustment either side. Without going into a great deal of detail you have to assume a lapse rate (I'm sure there are explanations of these in the learners area or just google it) which is just the rate a parcel of air with different characteristics will cool when rising or, for our purposes, will warm on descending. Thus once you have decided on the rate it's just a matter of doing a little calculation using the 850mb height and temp..In practice people tend to use some sort of rule of thumb such as doubling the 850mb temp or adding 15C, well I'm assuming they do, some may well use other methods.

This is based on the fact that dry air will rise and cool (and conversely) at 9.8C/km and a ball park figure for the 850mb height is 1500m. In practice the figure will most likely  be less than this But the lapse rate can be affected by various things plus in clear air in hot weather surface heating also has to be taken into account. It's a bit hit and miss as is this brief attempt at an explanation but it will probably pay you to make a visit to the learners area as mentioned.

Anyway I hope this helps. :)

Apologies for quoting my own post I've just noticed it is very badly worded. When I said, "In practice the figure will most likely  be less than this" I didn't mean the 850mb height figure but the lapse rate. The former is likely to be higher.

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16 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Thankfully it got back on track

DCYuzJfXcAIfBdZ.jpg

Enjoy

:)

yes it is! BRILLIANT! could get very hot later next week if we get to import that hot air over spain, the +15 upper isotherm could send temps and humidity soaring later next wek.

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Finally some actual warmth this June. Had nothing but cloud, rain and boring mid teens celsius so far :D

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Next week looks truly  awful weather wise for me,booked for south east for first 3 days with work,dreading it,really makes the life so much harder and uncomfortable. By far the worst time of year for doing my line of work.

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6 minutes ago, markyo said:

Next week looks truly  awful weather wise for me,booked for south east for first 3 days with work,dreading it,really makes the life so much harder and uncomfortable. By far the worst time of year for doing my line of work.

Not long until doomsday now...

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49 minutes ago, markyo said:

Next week looks truly  awful weather wise for me,booked for south east for first 3 days with work,dreading it,really makes the life so much harder and uncomfortable. By far the worst time of year for doing my line of work.

well, my location it's only hot for 3 days, massive cool down on Tuesday

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Of to Glastonbury on Tuesday  looking forward to being cooked ,can't be to hot for me 8)

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2 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Not long until doomsday now...

The clock is ticking.

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thinking the breakdown later next week will be a messy affair. i dont buy the rapid shift some runs suggest.

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8 hours ago, White Clouds said:

Lol you two are amusing! :D

unlike the weather!

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As someone who hates humid/muggy weather I cannot wait until Autumn

 

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37 minutes ago, ILC said:

As someone who hates humid/muggy weather I cannot wait until Autumn

 

In agreement,Autumn can't come quick enough.  Welcome by the way,hope you enjoy the banter!

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So....

ukmaxtemp.png

The GFS has a max of 30C for Thursday, pretty much touts the potential for the heat this weekend to eclipsed just a few days later as we finally get the heat to our south pushed north, for the most part the warmth over us is just the surface heat generated under a relatively moist tropical maritime flow from the Azores rather than the drier and more intense heat from the continent. Manwithbeard may be pretty close if this is the set up we see later this week.I would rule out temperatures exceeding 90f, possibly quite widely across England.

Worth noting that the BBC already has London forecast to hit 30C on Thursday.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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I can wait until autumn seen as though we get autumnal weather around 90% of the time.

Edited by I Cumbria Marra I
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1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:

So....

ukmaxtemp.png

The GFS has a max of 30C for Thursday, pretty much touts the potential for the heat this weekend to eclipsed just a few days later as we finally get the heat to our south pushed north, for the most part the warmth over us is just the surface heat generated under a relatively moist tropical maritime flow from the Azores rather than the drier and more intense heat from the continent. Manwithbeard may be pretty close if this is the set up we see later this week.I would rule out temperatures exceeding 90f, possibly quite widely across England.

Worth noting that the BBC already has London forecast to hit 30C on Thursday.

The GFS also regularly underestimates maximum temperatures, so a few degrees higher than shown may well be possible (not that it would be necessary, already nicely warm). A gorgeous spell of proper summer weather, so good to not be depressed by howling winds and cool, cloudy crap!

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bit disappointed about Manchester not looking likely to see anything past 26C considering how prolonged the spell is. Even June 2000 saw some days touching 29C

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Find it very weird how folk clammier for temps above 25/26c. Just uncomfortable then even if your not working,especially for sleeping. It's like folk in winter wanting sub minus 5c temps,pointless.

Edited by markyo
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26C with 45% humidity and a slight breeze here. Hardly humid or muggy as some would have you believe.

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11 minutes ago, MP-R said:

26C with 45% humidity and a slight breeze here. Hardly humid or muggy as some would have you believe.

Sane here. 27C with humidity below 50%. Not humid or muggy at all. Uv index was 8 today though!

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29C here with 46% humidity. Feels hot for sure but not humid or clammy. 

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1 hour ago, markyo said:

Find it very weird how folk clammier for temps above 25/26c. Just uncomfortable then even if your not working,especially for sleeping. It's like folk in winter wanting sub minus 5c temps,pointless.

25c is perfect for me personally with the strength of sun. Above 30c+ is interesting because it could be a record breaker but unnecessary 

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32 minutes ago, Summer 1976 said:

25c is perfect for me personally with the strength of sun. Above 30c+ is interesting because it could be a record breaker but unnecessary 

25c is perfect as you say for most. Anything above is just a wish for heat lovers,as in winter months for cold lovers  banging on about how cold they like it,pointless and uncomfortable.

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