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Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic

    Excellent post, couldn't agree more. All this desperate chasing of cold at 10 days out isn't going to make it actually happen, as this winter has clearly demonstrated. We do not 'deserve' snow, we live on a mild rainy island where snow will always be an occasional (Scotland and high ground) or rare (everywhere else) exception. Unfortunately, fantasy is always better than reality and people will believe what they want to see and then have a meltdown when it doesn't happen!

    Edited by stainesbloke
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    This is wrong on so many levels...

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Great post Barmada. Just one thing though, it should be iterated that significant snowfall is what is rare. Cold itself is not. It is the cold and mild balancing out that in fact gives us a cool temperate climate. If you want a true mild temperate climate, perhaps Galicia is a good match.

    Equally, where I'm sure a few of us would love to have Finland's winters, most of us would be happy with a week long cold spell with snow at some point. Part and parcel of our climate and nothing unusual really, much like hot spells in summer. One just has to temper their expectations to higher likelihood of cold spells further away from the southeast in winter, and hot weather in summer further away from the northwest.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Lakeland.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme events.
  • Location: South Lakeland.

    @stainesbloke exactly. I now find the ramping on the model forum quite irritating, but thankfully there are some level headed posters on there who keep things realistic. Don't want to mention names but there were a few who made it quite clear that this recent 'beasterly' would be short-lived and deliver little snowfall, and they were correct, credit to them.

    When I was younger it bothered me I must admit,but I have learned the hard way purely through past experience, I don't feel let down any more because there is nothing to be let down about. I'm not saying it will never snow here in the UK, the potential is always there, but ultimately its more unlikely than likely. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
    10 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    Great post Barmada. Just one thing though, it should be iterated that significant snowfall is what is rare. Cold itself is not. It is the cold and mild balancing out that in fact gives us a cool temperate climate. If you want a true mild temperate climate, perhaps Galicia is a good match.

    Equally, where I'm sure a few of us would love to have Finland's winters, most of us would be happy with a week long cold spell with snow at some point. Part and parcel of our climate and nothing unusual really, much like hot spells in summer. One just has to temper their expectations to higher likelihood of cold spells further away from the southeast in winter, and hot weather in summer further away from the northwest.

    Good post but a week long cold spell with snow is the best the UK can generally manage a couple of times a decade, depending on where you're located and with a lot of luck. Certainly not every year and that has never been the case. 4 years without snow isn't that unusual. 

    Edited by stainesbloke
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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    5 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

    Good post but a week long cold spell with snow is the best the UK can generally manage a couple of times a decade, depending on where you're located. Certainly not every year and that has never been the case. 4 years without snow isn't that unusual. 

    I'm guessing you're speaking for your location? which I can appreciate having lived in Egham/Englefield Green for a number of years while at uni. Nearly every winter has managed to produce a week long cold spell with snowfall here. Only 2013/2014 and 2015/2016 have failed in both departments. Conversely, this year has had multiple sometimes 10 day cold spells, just without the snow lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day
  • Location: Welling/ Barbican by day

    I find all this very entertaining. We are surrounded by water on every inch of this island. The synoptics really do have to be so so right for us to have a prolonged cold spell. for me the holy grail will always be 2010. It is always said, get the cold in first and the snow will follow, and to some extent that did happen, but it was a short lived period. What I have enjoyed is the freezing days where as each day went on the frosts got more and more sever in January, to show that there was about 6 inches of ice on Danson lake. Have to say we were incredibly unlucky with the last beast from the east. The synoptics changed over a 5 day period, which reduced our chances to wet snow on Saturday. Is still much better than last year. think we had 14 consecutive hard core frosts which is good for me. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
    54 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    I'm guessing you're speaking for your location? which I can appreciate having lived in Egham/Englefield Green for a number of years while at uni. Nearly every winter has managed to produce a week long cold spell with snowfall here. Only 2013/2014 and 2015/2016 have failed in both departments. Conversely, this year has had multiple sometimes 10 day cold spells, just without the snow lol.

    Of course I'm speaking for my location. I've always lived in this area apart from 4 years in N Staffordshire in the early-mid 1990's. Even in the good old 1980's there were only a handful of decent snow events here. Other parts of the country may differ but snow certainly is a very occasional experience for this part of the UK. Have to say I'm a bit surprised that Somerset manages a week long cold spell every year with snow though.

    Edited by stainesbloke
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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    24 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

    Of course I'm speaking for my location. I've always lived in this area apart from 4 years in N Staffordshire in the early-mid 1990's. Even in the good old 1980's there were only a handful of decent snow events here. Other parts of the country may differ but snow certainly is a very occasional experience for this part of the UK. Have to say I'm a bit surprised that Somerset manages a week long cold spell every year with snow though.

    Agreed i lived in Exeter for nearly 20 years and worked a lot in Somerset..often you would go years with little or no snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    1 hour ago, MP-R said:

    I'm guessing you're speaking for your location? which I can appreciate having lived in Egham/Englefield Green for a number of years while at uni. Nearly every winter has managed to produce a week long cold spell with snowfall here. Only 2013/2014 and 2015/2016 have failed in both departments. Conversely, this year has had multiple sometimes 10 day cold spells, just without the snow lol.

    Even many of the dire winters of the late 90s and 00s managed to produce at least one reasonable snow event.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
    2 hours ago, MP-R said:

    Great post Barmada. Just one thing though, it should be iterated that significant snowfall is what is rare. Cold itself is not. It is the cold and mild balancing out that in fact gives us a cool temperate climate. If you want a true mild temperate climate, perhaps Galicia is a good match.

    Equally, where I'm sure a few of us would love to have Finland's winters, most of us would be happy with a week long cold spell with snow at some point. Part and parcel of our climate and nothing unusual really, much like hot spells in summer. One just has to temper their expectations to higher likelihood of cold spells further away from the southeast in winter, and hot weather in summer further away from the northwest.

    I think you're confused. 'Cool temperate climate' is not a climate zone, it's an opinion. Oceanic climates are described as mild temperate because they are in the temperate zone and are very mild for their latitude. Thus the UK gets warmer winter and autumns than many more southern locations. While Galicia is warmer especially in winter, A Coruña is still gets cooler highs than London in summer so the distinction is messy at best. Real cool temperate climates are Subpolar Oceanic like Shetland and Faroe Islands.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    4 years without snow would be very unusual here. In fact, it's never happened. 

    But even here, snow is usually transient - it's definitely become less common, but it was never common to begin with. Snow lovers in the UK get giddy when snow is in the forecast precisely because it is relatively uncommon. I definitely don't think we'd be getting excited or posting on model output threads every single day looking for snow if snow was present almost every day.. there would be no novelty value. It would be like getting giddy over rain - big deal. People in places like Buffalo or Montreal don't get excited when it snows. People in these places don't look forward to winter.. they dread it. 

    Edited by cheese
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
    2 hours ago, Barmada_Casten said:

    Just want to say a huge thanks and a massive congratulations to those on here who did'nt get carried away with our most recent failed 'beast from the east' which materilised to all but nothing as usual.

    I first signed up to the forum in 2003 in those following 14 winters (which is a frightening thought!), and in that time I have experienced one 'true' winter 2009-2010 and only a handful of significant snowfall events which have lead to significant accumulations - roughly 4, bearing in mind that during this time I have mostly lived in the north of England. Over the last 14 years of being 'on' net-weather, I just wanted to make a few points to some of the other, younger, maybe more naive members of the forum regarding snow and the UK. 

    • The UK may be in northern Europe but we live in a mild, wet, temperate climate. Cold snaps of cold weather with significant snowfalls are not normal they are extremely rare.
    • Model runs are not weather forecasts. I can not stress this enough. 
    • Snow is one of the most difficult forms of weather to predict with so many 'knife edge; factors that need to be inline in order for it to occur in our mild, temperate climate.
    • Never trust a snow forecast until minutes before - 'nowcasting' is essential.
    • I would say that 90-95% of predicted snaps of cold weather indicated severe snowfall and these 'beast from the east's never materialise.
    • Periods of long, sustained cold, with consistent heavy snowfall akin to that of northern Finland have occurred twice in 100 years.#
    • If you are looking for snow in the UK then it is best to go to higher ground, where snowfall is far more regular and reliable.

    If you have any more points you wish to add, feel free too. It has probably taken me this long to realise the above points myself - the days of myself getting worked up about failed over-hyped cold weather scenarios are over. It has taken 4 significant falls in 14 years to make me realise this....

    *Note/: Locations lived: Lake District, Lanacaster, Surrey, Netherlands.

    Barmada Casten

    Hi Barmada-Casten.

     

    This is one of the best posts I have ever read in my many years following Netweather,  It should be pinned to the top of every model discussion thread throughout the winter season.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    Another fact to consider is the period a lot of members were born and growing up. Due to the fact there was a marked increase in number of colder and snowier Winters in the UK from the 1940s (early-mid 1970s excepted) to the 1980s, anyone who's at least in their late 30s or early 40s will have a skewed perception of what a British Winter should be like. Consequently it reminds them of more care free days, and when it does happen it reignites that spark within and gives them something of a natural high. But maybe the Winters since then are much more typical ie usually mild with little snow, with just the occasional colder and snowier one. Then again some of us younger ones who can't remember the more regular cold Winters of the 1980s are still snow obsessives, and like myself can only remember as far back as the less regular and generally shorter lived snowy episodes of the 1990s. The last 4 years for many of us though has been especially bad in this regard, but hardly unprecedented and a few successive years with little to no snow here is to be expected from time to time in our climate. It may seem like a long time since 2013 and even 2010, but it isn't really. We simply can't expect snow nirvana every year and if we're willing to live here we should really just except that as any Winter approaches there's a good chance we'll get little in the way of snow. We'll get another half decent one eventually just by the law of averages alone, but when we do we should remember a less desirable one is never too far away.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    2 hours ago, March said:

    I think you're confused. 'Cool temperate climate' is not a climate zone, it's an opinion. Oceanic climates are described as mild temperate because they are in the temperate zone and are very mild for their latitude. Thus the UK gets warmer winter and autumns than many more southern locations. While Galicia is warmer especially in winter, A Coruña is still gets cooler highs than London in summer so the distinction is messy at best. Real cool temperate climates are Subpolar Oceanic like Shetland and Faroe Islands.

    Nope not confused, I have come across both cool and mild temperate climates (albeit studying meteorology as an A-Level Geography module). You've even given an example of a cool temperate climate. Perhaps that's being over specific. As you say though, the distinction is not clear cut. Very few climate zones are. I just tend to refrain from labelling the UK as a mild temperate region as that would be a bit misleading.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    3 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

    Of course I'm speaking for my location. I've always lived in this area apart from 4 years in N Staffordshire in the early-mid 1990's. Even in the good old 1980's there were only a handful of decent snow events here. Other parts of the country may differ but snow certainly is a very occasional experience for this part of the UK. Have to say I'm a bit surprised that Somerset manages a week long cold spell every year with snow though.

    Don't forget that I put 'nearly' before that sentence :wink: Indeed, some parts of Somerset get snow every winter, and others get it more like every 5 years e.g. the Somerset levels nearer the Severn Estuary. Of course, some years we only get a cold blip of 1-2 days that manages to deliver snow, then others like this year we get prolonged cold but hardly any of the white stuff. I'm simply saying, a week long cold spell with measurable snowfall is hardly unusual.

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
    4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    Don't forget that I put 'nearly' before that sentence :wink: Indeed, some parts of Somerset get snow every winter, and others get it more like every 5 years e.g. the Somerset levels nearer the Severn Estuary. Of course, some years we only get a cold blip of 1-2 days that manages to deliver snow, then others like this year we get prolonged cold but hardly any of the white stuff. I'm simply saying, a week long cold spell with measurable snowfall is hardly unusual.

    Thats a fair comment. All I'm saying is a few years without a 'decent' snowfall isn't unusual either. Last winter was very mild here and just an endless procession of Atlantic storms but I still witnessed falling snow on 2 separate occasions. It's more the laying snow, for any length of time at least, which is quite rare, especially here. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex

    Sorry but I am the cause of the cold weather not occurring. 

    Having listened to all the hype I ordered some extra coal to tide me over until spring.  I am of course devastated and wish to assure everyone that I will ignore everything that appears in the model thread in the future. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    I actually preferred the Atlantic dominated winter, to this winter.

    They gave very little hope of cold spells, whereas this winter has been the biggest 'hope' winter I think we've ever had, so much potential, so many let downs.

    From now on I'm changing sides, I'm going to beg, pray, wish for mild winters, after all, I'd be backing the winning horse. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
    1 hour ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

    Another fact to consider is the period a lot of members were born and growing up. Due to the fact there was a marked increase in number of colder and snowier Winters in the UK from the 1940s (early-mid 1970s excepted) to the 1980s, anyone who's at least in their late 30s or early 40s will have a skewed perception of what a British Winter should be like. Consequently it reminds them of more care free days, and when it does happen it reignites that spark within and gives them something of a natural high. But maybe the Winters since then are much more typical ie usually mild with little snow, with just the occasional colder and snowier one. Then again some of us younger ones who can't remember the more regular cold Winters of the 1980s are still snow obsessives, and like myself can only remember as far back as the less regular and generally shorter lived snowy episodes of the 1990s. The last 4 years for many of us though has been especially bad in this regard, but hardly unprecedented and a few successive years with little to no snow here is to be expected from time to time in our climate. It may seem like a long time since 2013 and even 2010, but it isn't really. We simply can't expect snow nirvana every year and if we're willing to live here we should really just except that as any Winter approaches there's a good chance we'll get little in the way of snow. We'll get another half decent one eventually just by the law of averages alone, but when we do we should remember a less desirable one is never too far away.

    Having witness all them winters during 70s and 80s I have noticed that really cold snowy winters tend to come in clumps, 3 to 5 very cold ones then we seem to get 3 to 5 very mild ones.

    Odd very cold winters on there own like 1995 are extremely rare in my lifetime. 

    One other thing I have noticed is that during quite a few cold winters if we've had the extreme cold with lots of snow early in winter ie December then from late January into February its become much milder with very little snow during second half of winter.

    I know some on here are thinking winter is over but I wouldn't rule out seeing some heavy snow just yet, in late April 1981 we had a foot of snow around here. we can get as much snow in March as Dec, Jan and Feb put together, only problem is once sun gets out it soon disappears. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    1 hour ago, cyclonic happiness said:

    I actually preferred the Atlantic dominated winter, to this winter.

    They gave very little hope of cold spells, whereas this winter has been the biggest 'hope' winter I think we've ever had, so much potential, so many let downs.

    From now on I'm changing sides, I'm going to beg, pray, wish for mild winters, after all, I'd be backing the winning horse. 

    This winter was so much better than endless cold rains and wind. I think most coldies actually hate feeling cold and nothing is worse than cold near freezing precipitation like we get normally in winter, even worse when a wind blows it in your face (and all of this without the fun of ice skating, riding a sleigh, snowball fight or building a snowman)

    Edited by ArHu3
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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

    Thats a fair comment. All I'm saying is a few years without a 'decent' snowfall isn't unusual either. Last winter was very mild here and just an endless procession of Atlantic storms but I still witnessed falling snow on 2 separate occasions. It's more the laying snow, for any length of time at least, which is quite rare, especially here. 

    Ah well yes I suppose one's definition of a decent snowfall would differ depending on location. The last decent snowfall, which was actually in the very good category, was in January 2013 here. I'd tend to think of 1-5cm as standard, 5-10cm as decent, 10-15cm as good, 15-20cm as very good and 20cm+ as a treat. I've had this conversation with my grandfather though who has lived in the area since 1976 and he wouldn't consider anything below 10cm as worthy of remembering lol. Alas, I was born in 1992 so my standards are lower than perhaps people from the preceding decades.

    Funnily enough, we often do better out of more Atlantic dominated winters here with snow from between west and north. Indeed, snow fell (though didn't lie) here in mid November with uppers of -3. However, given the choice between a winter with a predominance of Atlantic garbage and one snowfall, and a cold frosty winter, I'd certainly pick the latter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
    1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

    This winter was so much better than endless cold rains and wind. I think most coldies actually hate feeling cold and nothing is worse than cold near freezing precipitation like we get normally in winter, even worse when a wind blows it in your face (and all of this without the fun of ice skating, riding a sleigh, snowball fight or building a snowman)

    This is a good point, as even though many of us have an appreciation for the aesthetics that can arise from very cold weather (especially snowfall and a snow covered landscape), nobody actually enjoys feeling cold. The same as how there's a point when heat becomes a nuisance. At work I often have to go into the walk in freezer to fetch ingredients and I don't find it pleasant (it's about -20c in there or so). If your feeling cold on the shop floor though as I sometimes do, you only have to go in there for a few minutes and it feels perfectly tolerable when you come back out. So I think it's fair to say if I'm honest with myself it's not so much the cold I like, but the weather it has the potential to deliver. But I think that's probably anybody who likes seeing ice and snow. If only water froze at a higher temperature. Also although we may find very mild temperatures in Winter a bit boring at least they're easier to keep comfortable in. I still want it to be cold enough for snow to stick around for long periods though, such is my resistance to my own logic. I just love snow too much.

    Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    Nice to see that now the cold spell is over, the frosts have returned???

    The weather really is pushing it's luck! :-p

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    Posted
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, gales, all extreme weather really!
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
    15 hours ago, Barmada_Casten said:

    Just want to say a huge thanks and a massive congratulations to those on here who did'nt get carried away with our most recent failed 'beast from the east' which materilised to all but nothing as usual.

    I first signed up to the forum in 2003 in those following 14 winters (which is a frightening thought!), and in that time I have experienced one 'true' winter 2009-2010 and only a handful of significant snowfall events which have lead to significant accumulations - roughly 4, bearing in mind that during this time I have mostly lived in the north of England. Over the last 14 years of being 'on' net-weather, I just wanted to make a few points to some of the other, younger, maybe more naive members of the forum regarding snow and the UK. 

    • The UK may be in northern Europe but we live in a mild, wet, temperate climate. Cold snaps of cold weather with significant snowfalls are not normal they are extremely rare.
    • Model runs are not weather forecasts. I can not stress this enough. 
    • Snow is one of the most difficult forms of weather to predict with so many 'knife edge; factors that need to be inline in order for it to occur in our mild, temperate climate.
    • Never trust a snow forecast until minutes before - 'nowcasting' is essential.
    • I would say that 90-95% of predicted snaps of cold weather indicated severe snowfall and these 'beast from the east's never materialise.
    • Periods of long, sustained cold, with consistent heavy snowfall akin to that of northern Finland have occurred twice in 100 years.#
    • If you are looking for snow in the UK then it is best to go to higher ground, where snowfall is far more regular and reliable.

    If you have any more points you wish to add, feel free too. It has probably taken me this long to realise the above points myself - the days of myself getting worked up about failed over-hyped cold weather scenarios are over. It has taken 4 significant falls in 14 years to make me realise this....

    *Note/: Locations lived: Lake District, Lanacaster, Surrey, Netherlands.

    Barmada Casten

    I've been lurking since around 2003 too and mostly agree although I do recall more snowfall back in the 80s and 90s, it's become diabolical the last 4 years. As for the models, I used to get suckered in and so despondent when yet again they didn't materialise for the umpteenth time and that's turned into not flinching when I see a cold spell on the cards again, in fact I barely go in the model thread anymore, it's always jam tomorrow. I don't see the value of modelling anything over 5 days if it's so inaccurate and leading to frustration over and over. The same can be applied to summer where it now seems to see a thunderstorm is as rare as snow in the winter and yet I used to see at least a few a year. 1 decent storm in nearly a decade for me, it's unreal. As a weather lover who's followed it avidly for 31 years I cannot bear the trend for the seasons to converge to a form of warm or cold autumn and I'm sure the level of cloud has gone up!! Nothing of interest seems to happen anymore, and I think I'm giving it up finally and looking for another hobby. Please 2017 deliver something of interest to spite me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    Every day for the next 10 days has a forecast high above 10C. No rain either, so that's fine by me. Sick of this damp, cold rubbish. Bring forth an early taste of spring.

    Edited by cheese
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