Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Mac_SE]

29.5 grains and counting...

And this latest debacle just shows/proves that for all their meteorological nous, the boys and girls in the MAD thread actually do not know how the weather will pan out, despite how much they are lauded in there. Since 2009 I've seen thousands of posts and read thousands of opinions which ultimately end up wide of the eventual mark. I'm not saying I doubt their expertise, but for me, it is the Met Office who almost always seem rock solid in their take on how things will pan out and I am yet to be proved wrong.

 

Edited February 10, 2017 by Mac_SE

[The Wolf]

This winter = Trash.

[Hanny]

Light dusting in Crawley at the moment

[knocker]

With the vortex predicted to be over Franz Joseph Land en route to Greenland/Canada, "The hills are alive to the Sound of music".

The Sidney trio

[Matthew.]

Yes Sidney not done too bad this winter. Mild quiet December. A quiet average January and Feb with a touch of spring in the air next week.

Edited February 11, 2017 by Matthew Wilson

[joggs]

I'm with Sidney now.Bring on spring.But Sidney be warned the spring /summer greeny high with a southerly tracking jet lol. 

[northwestsnow]

Sorry but its been an utterly pathetic winter yet again.

Yes there will be occasional exceptions but anyone attempting to suggest our climate hasnt changed need to take the blinkers off.

[Spikey M]

Well, we've had some settling over night on cars and rooftops. If counted thats 2 snow events this winter. I'm really not sure I can count it, mind.

[stainesbloke]

33 minutes ago, joggs said:

I'm with Sidney now.Bring on spring.But Sidney be warned the spring /summer greeny high with a southerly tracking jet lol. 

Haha indeed. What's the betting that is going to happen? Thankfully the decision to emigrate has been made!

[noggin]

6 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

Well, we've had some settling over night on cars and rooftops. If counted thats 2 snow events this winter. I'm really not sure I can count it, mind.

Exactly the same here and of course it counts.....snow is snow! There is a light covering here and still a few flakes drifting down.

Yesterday I lowered my snow expectations, having been annoyed with myself for believing the nonsense in the MAD thread and hey...........we have some snow now. This is obviously the way forward for next Winter!

[KTtom]

24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sorry but its been an utterly pathetic winter yet again.

Yes there will be occasional exceptions but anyone attempting to suggest our climate hasnt changed need to take the blinkers off.

Agree....this much anticipated easterly has arrived with uppers near to -10, and it's raining Here!  

[Stuart]

it not all do with the Uppers it the Dew point is the most import thing

[snowblizzard]

5 minutes ago, Stuart said:

it not all do with the Uppers it the Dew point is the most import thing

But, normally with -10c 850's the dew points would be low enough to support snow down to sea level!

[carinthian]

13 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Agree....this much anticipated easterly has arrived with uppers near to -10, and it's raining Here!  

What an insult to you snow starved Islanders. No real cold since March 2013, must make yo all really fed up with winters now.  Again , hopes blown away again this coming week with the British Isles on the mild side of Euro Slug. OK we have had days on end of below freezing temps over here but very little snow to show for it. Also, I am getting fed up with this winter now. Cold and crap here, sort of mild side of normal and grey over you lot.  Rain and uppers of -10c, that's not right or fair.

 C

Edited February 11, 2017 by carinthian

[booferking]

16 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Agree....this much anticipated easterly has arrived with uppers near to -10, and it's raining Here!  

Thats shocking this block to the east has been as useless as a choclate ass tray..

[snowblizzard]

52 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sorry but its been an utterly pathetic winter yet again.

Yes there will be occasional exceptions but anyone attempting to suggest our climate hasnt changed need to take the blinkers off.

It has been a really strange winter, I can't remember one that's been dominated by HP for such a long time with very little in terms of active weather - very boring!

However, I don't agree that our climate has changed that much.

When you look back in time, severe cold and snow has been a rare event in UK for at least the last 60 years.

It's probably changes elsewhere in the world that may be making it even more difficult to get the synoptic pattern required to get severe cold and snow into UK?

But, sometime in the future, -20c 850's will return to our shores if only for a brief visit!

 

 

 

Edited February 11, 2017 by snowblizzard

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

It has been a really strange winter, I can't remember one that's been dominated by HP for such a long time with very little in terms of active weather - very boring!

However, I don't agree that our climate has changed that much.

When you look back in time, severe cold and snow has been a rare event in UK for at least the last 60 years.

It's probably changes elsewhere in the world that may be making it even more difficult to get the synoptic pattern required to get severe cold and snow into UK?

 

 

 

Could it be that the sources of cold have gotten warmer over the past 30 years as well? Whether it's the Arctic, Scandinavia or Eastern Europe, they have all experienced pronounced winter warming.

Edited February 11, 2017 by cheese

[snowblizzard]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

Could it be that the sources of cold have gotten warmer over the past 30 years as well? Whether it's the Arctic, Scandinavia or Eastern Europe, they have all experienced pronounced winter warming.

Definitely!

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

Could it be that the sources of cold have gotten warmer over the past 30 years as well? Whether it's the Arctic, Scandinavia or Eastern Europe, they have all experienced pronounced winter warming.

It's everyone's responsibility though, isn't it? We all drive, heat our homes, use electricity etc. Pumping masses of CO2 into the atmosphere is going to show effects at some point. That's if you believe the whole climate change argument, I'm inclined to. Could all just be part of a natural cycle though. 

Notably quiet winter here, I'm grateful for the large amounts of sunny cold days and not much wind and rain. Shame about no snow though, maybe next year.

[ArHu3]

In the meantime over here on the Dutch coast our first snow since 2013

[JeffC]

Just one for all the folk worried that we're heading for disastrous winters for evermore...there were mild interludes at various points through history, but we still got 1947, 1963, 2009, 10 & 11 as well as March 13...

I agree this winter has been a case of so close but yet so far, but I'm confident we'll see a decent winter before too long

[syncmaster]

Not by nature a moaner, But uppers of -8 and oc dp just aint cutting it up here in North lincs. Snowed on and off all day yesterday just cold drizzle today lol But what really grinds is members over on the main model thread, summing up the winter on 11th feb grrr Rant over.......

[swipe]

A quick note to all the cold lovers, please spare a thought for the people without central heating who can't afford to heat their homes. I'm currently sitting in my living room, huddled around a halogen heater and it's 8.5C. I woke up to 6.3C in my bedroom this morning. When a cold spell lasts a few days the indoor temperature drops gradually each day. I can even see my breath indoors today. The reason I come on this forum is to pray in hope that each of these cold model runs never come to fruition. So the best outcome for me is to see lots of toys being hurled out of prams  So please bear in mind that when things don't go to plan, it's not all bad.

Edited February 11, 2017 by swipe

[knocker]

Not a million miles away from the EPS 500mb anomaly albeit the latter has a more pronounced Canadian vortex and Atlantic zonality.

[MP-R]

My biggest issue with this winter is how often the Synoptics have been right and the conditions haven't matched those Synoptics. Case in point, this current 'cold spell', uppers between -8 and -10 yet still booger all. Here's the kicker, how long has it been frigid to the east of us, then when we get an easterly it's about 10C too warm to the east of us!

Ill be looking northeast for the next shot of cold. Perhaps not this winter given the relative lack of sea ice, but I've always though easterlies are good from mid December to roughly mid February, but thereafter northerlies will produce the goods, and much more snow.

I just hope these unseasonal temperatures midweek are accompanied by sunshine so it at least feels like a taste of Spring, not grey muck.