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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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Just now, Rapodo said:

Did the same myself and back to reality with a huge bump. Very easy to get taken in by all the rampers. Models have been playing games all winter really, don't see the point of following models that far out anymore what the point of having a model watching hobby that's never right. 

It's not the fault of the models though. So many people see what they want to see at timeframes that  are way outside the reliable, leading to the inevitable toy throwing. If you can view anything past 5-6 days as 'subject to significant change' then there won't be so much disappointment. Also, micro-scrutinising every run, why? The trend at the moment is showing blocking and easterly influence. All good!

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You could play Model thread bingo simply by looking at the models then makinging a prediction about which poster will be saying what. 

It's so predictable. 
 

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The fact is that mother nature hasn't even decided what it is going to do next week yet.  Small random differences in how the weather/atmosphere behaves in the coming hours and days can make such a huge change in a weeks time.  No model will ever be accurate 5-7 days ahead because of this.

 

 

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Just find the mod thread so confusing - same people ramping lorry loads of snow and people following what they say as gospel, with those same people vanishing as soon as the outlook changes to less  cold conditions. Rea!ly not easy for anybody new or less knowledgeable to understand  particularly as anybody who has an alternative view to deep cold usually gets accused of trolling or told they don't know what they are talking about. Mod thread gets far too emotional which is not helpful for those of us trying to learn which is a shame and very off putting.

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10 minutes ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Just find the mod thread so confusing - same people ramping lorry loads of snow and people following what they say as gospel, with those same people vanishing as soon as the outlook changes to less  cold conditions. Rea!ly not easy for anybody new or less knowledgeable to understand  particularly as anybody who has an alternative view to deep cold usually gets accused of trolling or told they don't know what they are talking about. Mod thread gets far too emotional which is not helpful for those of us trying to learn which is a shame and very off putting.

My advice would be - listen to what the more informed people are saying, but remember most on the model thread are craving for cold and snow ( like most of us on here) so emotions from everyone will run high if the models start downgrading.

I always assume that any cold showing is not going to happen, that way if it doesn't (which is most the time) your not going to be to disappointed.

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22 minutes ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Just find the mod thread so confusing - same people ramping lorry loads of snow and people following what they say as gospel, with those same people vanishing as soon as the outlook changes to less  cold conditions. Rea!ly not easy for anybody new or less knowledgeable to understand  particularly as anybody who has an alternative view to deep cold usually gets accused of trolling or told they don't know what they are talking about. Mod thread gets far too emotional which is not helpful for those of us trying to learn which is a shame and very off putting.

I read what is on the model forum I also have started to watching Gavin partridge updates on YouTube most nights he goes through the gfs, 20 odd members I have found this useful as he will explain them and what he thinks may happen.

He also does this slowly and explains I have found this helps me understand More.

He also does some amazing old weather charts 1962 1963 46 and 47 amazing some of them.

 

Edited by pegg24

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3 hours ago, Ms Rock & Blues said:

I cannot believe I have done it AGAIN!   Got carried away with the model thread, hyper excited as it seemed a dead cert...............  agggghhhhh

But it can never be a dead cert at that time range. 

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2 hours ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Just find the mod thread so confusing - same people ramping lorry loads of snow and people following what they say as gospel, with those same people vanishing as soon as the outlook changes to less  cold conditions. Rea!ly not easy for anybody new or less knowledgeable to understand  particularly as anybody who has an alternative view to deep cold usually gets accused of trolling or told they don't know what they are talking about. Mod thread gets far too emotional which is not helpful for those of us trying to learn which is a shame and very off putting.

You say the same thing every year.

Surely by now you should be able to decide who or not to trust ..?

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18 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

This picture sums up just how 'lucky' the UK is at staying warm.

This is a map of the freezing level on earth.

 

snow.png

Spare a thought for cold lovers in Reykjavik - they're as far north as northern Canada but their forecast shows nothing but 7C days with rain. In fact, Reykjavik's forecast is warmer than Leeds'!

It's not been a great winter for most places in the US - apparently Chicago has only had 8cm of snow over the past month. They are supposed to get around a foot on average in January. Not a great winter in Scandinavia either. As a matter of fact, parts of the Costa Blanca have had more snow than places like Chicago and Helsinki this this past month.

It isn't just us that have been unfortunate if it's cold you want.

Edited by cheese

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As I've said before after this winter has gone it'll take something akin to 09/10 or 10/11 to draw people back into the model watching hobbywhich is highly unlikely.

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Going form when I grew up, MK, Central England 1960s-80s, more than a small %age of 'rampant' easterlies provided zip in the way of snow, IMBY...On the other hand, Eastern coastal districts (SE Jockistan to Kent) and the SW (from, say, Dorset westward and including South Wales and parts of the Emerald Isle) often received newsworthy amounts...If the upcoming air-stream is too dry, I fear that many of us will be whistling-in-the-wind?

But, good luck to anyone who sees any of the white stuff...Snow grains excpeted, of course, as they don't really count!

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Oh lord,so sad how folk have got sucked in again!! Just a bit colder,bit of a wind chill and that's it. Sorry but that's living in the UK.

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1 hour ago, markyo said:

Oh lord,so sad how folk have got sucked in again!! Just a bit colder,bit of a wind chill and that's it. Sorry but that's living in the UK.

What's sad is that people keep knee-jerking based on model output that's more than 72 hours away.

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15 minutes ago, Buzz said:

What's sad is that people keep knee-jerking based on model output that's more than 72 hours away.

Agree totally,96hr the we take notice,until then....well whats the point especially in Winter months,way way way to many variables unlike Summer months.

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@CreweCold

The issue is, Chiono, things more often go wrong than they go right in the UK so I prefer to be realistic with potential pitfalls. People can say it's negativity but the fact that I've seen a dozen ramping episodes on this forum and yet with no substantial cold spells actually materialising over the past couple of years, it speaks for itself.

 

I'd be the first one to ramp away if I saw something truly great in the modelling but from the promise and optimism of just 48 hours ago (where we had the potential for a very notable E'ly spell) we have now been left with a couple of days of E/SE'ly winds and a modest cold pool to play with under fairly high pressure.

 

Eastern and southeastern areas may well see snow, but what I'm seeing at the moment for everyone else is grey, stratiform sky with a cold wind.

 

For what it's worth I don't foresee this spell being the last period of interest this month (nor even into March) and I'm not buying a long term descent into the MLB that we have seen for much of the winter thus far. So, longer term I quite agree with you.

 

Imaginary downgrade made real by believing what has gone before and yet at the same time being realistic about the outcome of what has come before. I'll pass you some more cake it looks like you've already eaten your last lot. 

And that's the point some people don't wanna be told it can go wrong all the time because they already know that. It's a bit like some people don't need to be told the fire is hot because they already know. Of course if you need to consistently tell your self the fire is hot that's fine but keep it to your self would be the message here.

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Truly hate the phrase "clutching at straws" but this is a perfect example,way to much ramping of charts,just like in the summer and then the let down which always occurs in the UK 99% of the time. If folk want to pour over charts that far out and start dreaming if only that's fine,just realise it is not going to happen,sorry just realistic.

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Gutted. Where's my snow gone steve murr?:nonono:

Was about to start papering as-well although,have to say,the wife wasn't keen.:)

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It just never really felt right, this one. We'll see what happens, but the Carrott appears to be making it's way back to the end of the pole again! 

Personally I've got one eye on spring warmth already. Looking forward to longer days and the bushes springing back into life. 

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Todays output reinforces my early fears for this cold spell (such a shame as i was coming on board last night) which is that we'd see a downgrade to a much higher pressure solution in and around the UK (killing the chances of snow). Looking at the models we simply don't see the initial Italian Low really reinforced (Euro is attempting it towards day 10 but its pretty flabby) which means that we struggle to get winds without a southerly component and the high starts to collapse. 

This winter may be chilly but once again the prospects for snow look slim until the pattern resets. 

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34 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Personally I've got one eye on spring warmth already. Looking forward to longer days and the bushes springing back into life. 

Definitely!  The sun yesterday afternoon was lovely

 The model thread = :)  -> :yahoo: -> :cc_confused: -> :angry: -> :wallbash: Reset

Edited by Weather_Novice

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Tbh, I'm not really interested in an easterly that's not worth it, i.e one with only coldish single figure temperatures or warmed out uppers and a lot of cloud.

I did see someone mention March and an SSW late Feb.. Oh great, a cold spring.
 

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So glad I didn't get sucked into the model thread this time . When people post charts showing -18HPA air etc it raises false hopes . I was waiting until Sunday to even look what was panning out . To be looking at every run from a week back is almost always going to end in disappointment . Still time for upgrades by end of weekend but we know the likely outcome will be the opposite probably !

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I've feeling (and it's no more than that) that our upcoming colder spell we be similar to, though a tad more widespread and longer-lasting than, those we've already had...

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From what I have read so far on this thread makes sense. It's nice to have snow between November and January but as we head towards March I'd personally like some mild sunny days .and not grey skies with drizzle. 

I maybe mistaken but the Scandinavian high was always going to get pushed eastwards by lots of deep low pressures in the north Atlantic ...

If a top poster on here says snow.

Then it must be right :rofl:

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