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31 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

I've seen  850s of -40 over Scandinavia before ,with max daytime temps of -30 in Helsinki doesn't seem to happen anymore ,one reason why easterlies here are not as cold anymore.

We were telling ourselves the very same during the snow-starved early-mid 1970s.

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It looks like staying generally unsettled and occasionally windy with spells of rain, heavy at times and temps varying between average / mild until around next midweek or perhaps thursday before the continental anticyclonic influence begins to arrive in the east with drier and brighter conditions but with increasing night frosts and probably fog patches with the unsettled atlantic weather becoming more restricted to the west of the uk as time goes on.

Edited by Frosty.
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9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

conditions but with increasing night frosts and probably fog patches with the unsettled atlantic weather becoming more restricted to the west of the uk as time goes on.

Cmon Frosty, don't let them get ye down. You can do much better than this... especially when the models are on the cusp of  delivering something you and the forum have been chasing for long time.....a gold standard wintry blast

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30 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Yes it appears the coldest most severe winters were during the 80's .

I tend to disagree really.  apart from 1981/82 the 1980's were not particularly cold or snowy most winters from what I can recall.  in fact 1989 was snowless and practically frost free and exceptionally mild.

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6 minutes ago, doghouse said:

Cmon Frosty, don't let them get ye down. You can do much better than this... especially when the models are on the cusp of  delivering something you and the forum have been chasing for long time.....a gold standard wintry blast

He is being realistic though 

The Met Office are showing no interest at all in their updates of the eye candy that is being shown in FI in a few model suites

 

Edited by Arthur1882
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10 minutes ago, doghouse said:

Cmon Frosty, don't let them get ye down. You can do much better than this... especially when the models are on the cusp of  delivering something you and the forum have been chasing for long time.....a gold standard wintry blast

It's what the pros are saying, just my spin on their wording but as for the models today, they look loaded with wintry potential but no mention of snow in the latest update, that could of course change again tomorrow etc.

Nothing to ramp unless the MO come on-board I'm afraid

Edited by Frosty.
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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's what the pros are saying, just my spin on their wording but as for the models today, they look loaded with wintry potential but no mention of snow in the latest update, that could of course change again tomorrow etc.

Have to say the METO update is pretty similar, if not the same as yesterday.  I really think this weekends low pressures direction of travel has a huge impact on next weeke potential freeze up, and until the METO know where they go - even at this short range I don't think they'll guess what is going to happen next week.  I do think the chances of colder weather have grown in their eyes, they just haven't put pen to paper just yet.

Keep an eye on the BBC long range at 2155, or on twitter around 2100 - see if they add any more about the chance of it happening.  Tweets from Ian F are a great help, just not quite as thorough as he used to post on here which is a huge shame, and hopefully he comes back.

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I don't want to derail the thread but with regards to the meto update, I find it much more positive with regards to cold this month. They will not be specific about snow until much nearer the time. I also find that they are generally 24 hours behind the game anyway.

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16 minutes ago, snow freak said:

I tend to disagree really.  apart from 1981/82 the 1980's were not particularly cold or snowy most winters from what I can recall.  in fact 1989 was snowless and practically frost free and exceptionally mild.

Not sure where you get that from? 

Jan and Feb of 1985 were particularly cold, as was Feb '86 and a short, but severe cold spell in Jan '87. All were very cold with quite significant snowfall for many.

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11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I don't want to derail the thread but with regards to the meto update, I find it much more positive with regards to cold this month. They will not be specific about snow until much nearer the time. I also find that they are generally 24 hours behind the game anyway.

Disagree

Usually when there is the prospect of snow, even small prospect they will generally put in the updates 

'there are possibilities later of something more wintry, but confidence is low' 

That update today contains absolutely nothing like that 

 

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9 minutes ago, stotm said:

This is not met office update page is it?

No but it's interesting to compare what they are currently saying with what the models are currently showing and in my opinion there is more wintry potential in the models at the moment than I have seen this winter so far..hoping the pros come on-board soon. :- )

Edited by Frosty.
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Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

No mention of the S word yet on the latest METO update with an emphasis on dry and cold conditions.

And very sensible to and TBH I have not seem many METO updates in recent years that mention snow.Would be very interested  to see the METO updates leeding upto December 2010 and how it was worded if anyone can find in the archives would be appreciated.

Oh just to mention before someone suggests it.I am not comparing 2010 to what could happen this month

C.S

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2 hours ago, Luke Attwood said:

Yes it appears the coldest most severe winters were during the 80's .

Actually the most prolonged Winter for snow and cold in the 1976 to 1987 period (when all those Winters from 1976/77 to 1986/87 had at least one half decent cold spell at some point) was 1978/79. It was probably the second coldest Winter of the second half of the 20th century after 1962/63. 2009/10 was also thus far the coldest Winter overall since then aswell making it colder than any Winter overall in the 80s. Though of course most Winters in the 70s were pretty dire at least from 1971/72 to 1975/76. The late 80s were also bad for cold spells after 1986/87. Then of course we had a pretty good Winter come 1990/91. After that was a bit of a neither here nor there kind of period with 1995/96 been ok, especially for more northern parts with Dec 95 been pretty decent in Scotland. The late 90s though was about as bad as the late 80s. Again 2000/01 was ok especially late December. This was followed by a pretty naff period up until 2008/09 when we started getting some quite decent Winters again (2011/12 excepted though there was a very brief spell in early Feb which some did ok from) until 2012/13. Since then once again we've been stuck in a period of Winters akin to those horror shows of the early to mid 70s, late 80s and late 90s. So far this Winter has been looking as though it belongs among them. Yet there is still just enough time for it to break free from been cast amongst them, and remember even a week of very cold snowy weather can turn a UK Winter into a half decent one. Even if that doesn't happen though (and I'm cautiously optimistic for the time being), I don't think we'll be waiting too much longer for our next decent one, especially with the next solar cycle been predicted to be especially quiet. Who knows though, and it's only 10 months until next Winter at least.

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Hope this is the right thread to post.

 

What are the chances of a decent dump of snow before the 10th March up in Scotland highlands?  Off skiing and theres currently no snow to ski on.  Starting to get a bit concerned, but been following the other thread and looks to be a big cold spell coming.  (shame I dont understand any of it ha)

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MY STORY:

I have not seen significant snowfall now for 4 years. The last time was a heavy snow event which hit Cumbria in January/February 2013, which I must note melted rather quickly. And even in that event it seemed everyone else around me fared better.

The last time I have experienced a significant, long lasting snow event was Winter 2010/2011, which was rather good, but that is some 6 years ago now.

Every promise of snowfall I am let down, constantly, even as recent as this month when what should have been 3 days of snowfall to hit the Lakes materialised with a load of drizzle rubbish. 

I have lived in the south east of England for 2 years and saw no snow, and literally not a flake. Yet every other winter the south-east would get bombarded with snow. I lived in the Netherlands for one winter and saw no snow.

With the promise of an upcoming snow event I know what will happen: Everyone will get snow around me except me. It will hit all the places I have lived in the last few years and avoid me. I am sick and tired. Heres my snow record over the last 5 years, it is pathetic:

Winter 2011/2012 Cumbria: One afternoon of snow in February which left around around 1 or 2 inches max in Bowness.

Winter 2012/2013 Cumbria: One Afternoon of snow in January which left a large accumulation but melted the day after + One day of snow in March which left a significant accumulation but soon disapeared.

Winter 2013/2014 Surrey: No snow at all. 

Winter 2014/2015: Surrey: No snow at all. 

Winter 2015/2016 Netherlands: One hour of snow which left a 'powdering.'

Winter 2016/2017 Cumbria: No snow at all.

5 winters with 2 days of significant snowfall. And so many let-downs.

 

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I seriously don't get the interest in the up coming coolish spell, yes it will get a bit colder,not much but a bit,as for those fi charts well the fi bit say's it all. Getting cold i the Uk is very,very tricky and charts 10days out are absolutely  useless even for showing a trend. I love the cold but am sick to the back teeth of being led a stray in to hoping for something that will never happen. Sorry to say it but it's true.

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6 minutes ago, markyo said:

I seriously don't get the interest in the up coming coolish spell, yes it will get a bit colder,not much but a bit,as for those fi charts well the fi bit say's it all. Getting cold i the Uk is very,very tricky and charts 10days out are absolutely  useless even for showing a trend. I love the cold but am sick to the back teeth of being led a stray in to hoping for something that will never happen. Sorry to say it but it's true.

 

1106514-cool_story_bro_super.jpg

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