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To be honest I would be highly surprised if this cold spell develops,way way to many variables this far out. Just hope folk don't get sucked in and get let down again. We live in the UK,that is how it happens here.:sorry:

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Remember those old cartoons where the character would have a mini devil standing on one shoulder tell him to do bad things and a mini angel telling him good things... My mini devil sort of wants the cold spell to go pear shaped at around 48hrs out just to see the epic butthurt and rage on the forum. Thankfully though the mini angel is winning and he is telling me to hope for it all to go "according to plan"

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11 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Remember those old cartoons where the character would have a mini devil standing on one shoulder tell him to do bad things and a mini angel telling him good things... My mini devil sort of wants the cold spell to go pear shaped at around 48hrs out just to see the epic butthurt and rage on the forum. Thankfully though the mini angel is winning and he is telling me to hope for it all to go "according to plan"

haha, that's cruel, but even at T120 would do it as well.

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Upgrades from -15C uppers? Good luck with that!:D

Hehe, no I was thinking more along the lines of things firming up a bit more, more cross model and ensemble agreement. Uppers can stay in the -8 to -15 range.:D

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8 hours ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

where do you start with that... maybe leave it with 1 March being the beginning of meteo spring and the equinox in March being start of astronomical spring. saying it can't get cold in February is like saying it can't get hot in August.

Models looking pretty good this morning but would be nice to have a bit more buy-in from GFS and cross-agreement in coming days.

No where did I state it can't get cold in Feb, just merely pointing out the unlikeliness of any meaningful cold spell as we head towards the back end of Winter.  

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3 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

No where did I state it can't get cold in Feb, just merely pointing out the unlikeliness of any meaningful cold spell as we head towards the back end of Winter.  

Well, if you did, I haven't seen it. IMO, the only way you could be wrong would be if February were a colder month, statistically, than January?

It isn't!:D

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17 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

No where did I state it can't get cold in Feb, just merely pointing out the unlikeliness of any meaningful cold spell as we head towards the back end of Winter.  

I thought February was the start of Spring according to you? *innocent face

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6 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I thought February was the start of Spring according to you? *innocent face

Global temps were at there highest recorded level for 2016, so I can only imagine if this worrying trend continues that my original post which I was berated for earlier may not sound so farcical after all. :D 

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So much rubbish appearing in the mod thread right now from the likes of CreweCold saying lowland areas can't get meaningful snowfall late Feb into march. Can't remember the year but the date I do as it was April 9th the day after my birthday, woke up that morning to find a fair few inches of lying snow on the ground oh and i live at sea level in the south 3 miles from the coast!

Really does get on my nerves every year at this time of the winter with the same usual suspects keeping on about how time is running out for decent snowfall with it lying, especially in the south. I don't worry about sun strength or time running out until well into march & as I've witnessed, early April can still deliver the goods to lowland areas in the south, not that I particularly want cold weather in april mind, would prefer spring warmth by then. 

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On 23 March 2013, we had an ice day with heavy, blowing snow. 

The following day, the sun came out, and the temperature reached 1C with several inches of snow on the ground. Yes, the temperature reached 1C in late March under sunny skies with deep snow - which, funnily enough, didn't thaw fully until the early days of April.

Of course it's very unlikely and March 2013 was very cold, but it shows you what can happen even as late as that.

8582912276_2a0ca44c16_c.jpg

deep+snow+Collage.jpg

Of course, if you happen to live in Cheshire or most low-level places in NW England, snow is hard to come across at any time of year. :D 

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Just now, Smartie said:

So much rubbish appearing in the mod thread right now from the likes of CreweCold saying lowland areas can't get meaningful snowfall late Feb into march. Can't remember the year but the date I do as it was April 9th the day after my birthday, woke up that morning to find a fair few inches of lying snow on the ground oh and i live at sea level in the south 3 miles from the coast!

Really does get on my nerves every year at this time of the winter with the same usual suspects keeping on about how time is running out for decent snowfall with it lying, especially in the south. I don't worry about sun strength or time running out until well into march & as I've witnessed, early April can still deliver the goods to lowland areas in the south, not that I particularly want cold weather in april mind, would prefer spring warmth by then. 

Feb is just as snowy as Dec, Jan, but in my location, (don't know about anywhere else!) the sun is higher in the sky so angles down, to thaw snow on surfaces untouched by the sun in Dec and early/mid Jan

lying snow though overnight/early morning makes no difference, would agree too that Feb is generally snowiest month of the year, but in Stafford thaws will happen due to higher sun from 10am ish

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Depends when in Feb, early Feb is still deep winter, mid Feb and the sun starts to feel warmer, last week of Feb and agree 100% that the sun melts laying snow more quickly. Although If we have a big freeze going on and ice days, then the snow will hang around into March quite readily. As ever at altitude and shaded areas will keep hold of their snow the longest.

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6th April '08 the most famous one, very good snow overnight, wake up to thick snow like Jan, but sun was at very high angle, and big thaw!

Mar '13 the same, sun much higher than Dec/Jan, very quick thaw in sun, but patches out of sun remained until around 5 April

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30 minutes ago, Smartie said:

So much rubbish appearing in the mod thread right now from the likes of CreweCold saying lowland areas can't get meaningful snowfall late Feb into march. Can't remember the year but the date I do as it was April 9th the day after my birthday, woke up that morning to find a fair few inches of lying snow on the ground oh and i live at sea level in the south 3 miles from the coast!

Really does get on my nerves every year at this time of the winter with the same usual suspects keeping on about how time is running out for decent snowfall with it lying, especially in the south. I don't worry about sun strength or time running out until well into march & as I've witnessed, early April can still deliver the goods to lowland areas in the south, not that I particularly want cold weather in april mind, would prefer spring warmth by then. 

lol true that,s when the ignore feature come,s in to play :)

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I see that, as usual, most people are seeing their "dream charts" on model output 7 to 10 days ahead then feeling despondent when they are gone on the next model run.

When will people learn to stop looking so far ahead (and to also stop falling for positive words from some of the "respected" cold rampers)?

By all means look at model output from day 7 onwards, but just look at general patterns while acknowledging that what you are seeing will very likely change from run to run.

Any model output beyond 72 hours is NOT to be taken as gospel.

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well time to take a step back from me, lost all energy now.

Said this morning meto update would be critical and lo and behold....

Bored with it now, good luck to the guys keeping the faith..

Come back when it snows, NWS? If we haven't all died of old-age by then!:D

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well time to take a step back from me, lost all energy now.

Said this morning meto update would be critical and lo and behold....

Bored with it now, good luck to the guys keeping the faith..

Dont worry mate, 240hr has potential. :crazy:

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I'm constantly amazed at how many people can't use 'too' in their posts. 

'too close'

'too high' 

'too progressive' 

'too hot' 

'too cold'

It's too much for me to take! 

ggggrrrrrr

 

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