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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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1 hour ago, KTtom said:

You know the outlook is poor for cold when the ecm run finishes and there hasn't been 1 single comment on It!  High pressure to the east which everyone on the model thread has been getting so exited about all Winter should be seen as the equivalent of a Barttlet in future in terms of wrecking our chances of snow in Winter! 

Yes,you are so right! All the high pressure that everyone was banging on about wanting just gave us cold nothingness,down here at any rate. Folk should be careful what they wish for.At least we have some proper weather on the way now.An end to this boring stuff thats seems to have gone on for ever.Plenty more types of weather to enjoy apart from snow,this is a weather enthusiasts forum after all?

Regarding the models,as some other poster said,if the met/beeb dont mention it in their 5/10 day forecast then it aint happening.

As for the obsession with easterlies I just dont get it. If its snow we're after tben theres huge swathes of Uk and Ireland that dont really benefit at all from an easterly,only the east coasts of both islands are guaranteed ought,even down here in south east its not certain,though you cant beat a thames streamer when it gets going!

Pm winds are generally much more giving to more areas.

And for all those who bemoan the end of winter as we knew it,take some time out and read the historical monthly summaries on the metoffice website.Think its in Climate section.They go way back!

Things have changed little.Plenty of boring snowless winters then too.There were some exceptionally prolonged cold snowy spells in the past,and there will be again in the future!

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23 minutes ago, SW1988 said:

Yes,you are so right! All the high pressure that everyone was banging on about wanting just gave us cold nothingness,down here at any rate. Folk should be careful what they wish for.At least we have some proper weather on the way now.An end to this boring stuff thats seems to have gone on for ever.Plenty more types of weather to enjoy apart from snow,this is a weather enthusiasts forum after all?

Regarding the models,as some other poster said,if the met/beeb dont mention it in their 5/10 day forecast then it aint happening.

As for the obsession with easterlies I just dont get it. If its snow we're after tben theres huge swathes of Uk and Ireland that dont really benefit at all from an easterly,only the east coasts of both islands are guaranteed ought,even down here in south east its not certain,though you cant beat a thames streamer when it gets going!

Pm winds are generally much more giving to more areas.

And for all those who bemoan the end of winter as we knew it,take some time out and read the historical monthly summaries on the metoffice website.Think its in Climate section.They go way back!

Things have changed little.Plenty of boring snowless winters then too.There were some exceptionally prolonged cold snowy spells in the past,and there will be again in the future!

The outlook is horrendous, rain on nearly every day. What is there to like about that? Give me 'cold nothingness' any day.

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11 minutes ago, SW1988 said:

Yes,you are so right! All the high pressure that everyone was banging on about wanting just gave us cold nothingness,down here at any rate. Folk should be careful what they wish for.At least we have some proper weather on the way now.An end to this boring stuff thats seems to have gone on for ever.Plenty more types of weather to enjoy apart from snow,this is a weather enthusiasts forum after all?

Regarding the models,as some other poster said,if the met/beeb dont mention it in their 5/10 day forecast then it aint happening.

As for the obsession with easterlies I just dont get it. If its snow we're after tben theres huge swathes of Uk and Ireland that dont really benefit at all from an easterly,only the east coasts of both islands are guaranteed ought,even down here in south east its not certain,though you cant beat a thames streamer when it gets going!

Pm winds are generally much more giving to more areas.

And for all those who bemoan the end of winter as we knew it,take some time out and read the historical monthly summaries on the metoffice website.Think its in Climate section.They go way back!

Things have changed little.Plenty of boring snowless winters then too.There were some exceptionally prolonged cold snowy spells in the past,and there will be again in the future!

Great to hear this from somebody living in the South East because all i have been hearing in other threads how great this cold spell has been which makes me laugh, this cold spell is going to be that great that CET wont be below the Jan Avg.

If one was to mention the great cold spell of jan 2017 in 5 years time the facial expression below is what you would receive.:rofl:

As for snow there were a couple of flurrys if you want to call them that.

That high to the east is a waste of time has delivered nothing to are shores for 2 months now pretty boring to say the least it gets quite depressing looking out the window with the dull gloomy weather.

bemused_2.jpg

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into Feb we go, boring weather it looks. It is after all the opposite of August and August is known to be less of a summer month so shouldn't Feb take that same status?

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13 minutes ago, cheese said:

The outlook is horrendous, rain on nearly every day. What is there to like about that? Give me 'cold nothingness' any day.

If you want a rainy spring summer then your welcome as the chances greatly incresase if this dry spell continues.

Dry spell.png

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2 hours ago, 40*C said:

into Feb we go, boring weather it looks. It is after all the opposite of August and August is known to be less of a summer month so shouldn't Feb take that same status?

I tend to think August is the warmest month of year, not that hot but rarely cool days which are common in Jun and Jul

Feb to me is the least wintry month, usually a strong PV cold US, so invites the Atlantic I would have thought

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On ‎26‎/‎01‎/‎2017 at 10:08, Rapodo said:

Sorry got to laugh at those who try and predict over 5 days away on the model forum. It's a simulated computer that tries to "guess" what the future holds based on calculations that get programed into it every day. Not once have i seen all those who Ramp snow and cold be right yet and to be frank it's quite an embarrassment to watch. Try simply useing all the models and divide the average seen down the middle as a guide. Sick to death of so called know it alls shouting this and that and relying on one model as gospel. Quite clearly the ecm was all on its own regarding the block so take the average and that's usually about right and what we're now going to see next week. People should try looking out the window more instead of looking at the models and to then say whole of February is going to be wet sorry just have to laugh at that. How many times do I see my meto app change to rain just 2 or 3 days out. This whole predicting beyond 5 days is total garbage.

I have to agree with you on this Rapodo, at least to some degree.  Looking for exact or close to exact weather conditions for such a small area (uk & Ireland) beyond 4-5 days is futile.  When you consider the complexity of any one individual low/high pressure system and it's infinity of cause and effect variables with relation to its intensity, positioning, orientation etc, and then factor in its interaction with every other relative system, each with there own constantly evolving variables, it's not hard to understand why it is next to impossible to make an accurate 'long' range forecast. ...That was a long sentence.  Yes there are a number of stalwart forces that drive our climate's long term averages (gulf stream, Jet stream, Donald Trump's tweet stream etc) and there are trends and semi predictable general weather patterns (like the current setup and it's forecast round of Atlantic excretions) but when you try digging into the longer term details there is only one word that seems to sum how futile an endeavour it is for me, and that's random.  ....That sentence was even longer. 

I know this is like saying red is red to most netweather members and the ensembles prove how random long term forecasting is anyway but sharing is caring.

 

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Following this thread on a-occaison reminds me of the song--"I'm always chasing rainbows" maybe one day we will find our pot of gold!

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Yes, Winter is over... Another rubbish one, the fourth in a row without a proper snowfall.

I'm utterly fed up when you consider the potential it had, hadn't been for the Westerly QBO

The worst of it is that we're in for a period of mild southwesterlies to be followed for sure with snow in March and harsh frost when everyone is waiting for spring!

Agrrrrrr! 

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I'm still positive for our prospects for the rest of winter regarding possible snow and decent cold. I've always considered March to be a winter month particularly here in the south east when we tend to get a raw easterly wind. 

Onwards and upwards :D

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Think the younger ones in here could not cope with a really cold winter. 

Most are too soft. Central heating, double glazing, insulation and a soft life. 

Yes a nice dump of snow is great but when it goes on for weeks and months not so much fun. 

Might have to cut down on the takeaways  

 

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4 minutes ago, acrossthechannel said:

 

2013 was a rare event.

Otherwise the snow never sticks in March, it's simply too late in the season!

Maybe in lowland France but we had 4 inches in March last year here. It certainly stuck to the ground. In fact we had a light covering of about half an inch at the end of April too, it did melt very quickly though in the morning.

Edited by Frost HoIIow

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Yes but they are usually transient events when snow sticks for a couple of hours before melting away in the sun.

Not my cup of tea, really.

 

Edited by acrossthechannel
blunder

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8 minutes ago, acrossthechannel said:

Yes but they are usually transient events when snow sticks for a couple of hours before melting away in the sun.

Not my cup of tea, really.

 

So "across the channel", you've shared the last frigid two weeks. When I went through Paris last week, it felt colder than here in Limousin (wetter cold?). Let's move on and get into spring. Any transient cold will just bring mushy sleet and wet cold. I'd rather warmth, even if it is a little wet!

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All this talk of March and we're not even out of January yet. Don't trust the models past 5 days, anything can and will happen. 

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Yes we've had two weeks of frigid weather here (the hills of Flanders) but unfortunately there was no snow.

I've just seen on TV that the departement of Lozère is buried under one meter and a half of the white stuff. Incredible really, when I think that I was there just the same week last year and we had nothing.

As Spikecollie says let's move on and get into spring.

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Our high level stratospheric cloud today. Shortly after this the main part went and oily pearl white. Extremely high up. The sun rising was another 45minutes away. 

This is the part that gets me. Last time we had conditions like this was  Dec 2012,  Jan we had a spate of SSW. Very cold spring

Feb2006... the same very cold spring

Feb1996 the same. Very cold spring. 

So why should this be no different. I dont buy into a full blown atlantic driven pattern. It doesnt feel condusive to what we have seen with lows shooting northwards to svalvbard. 

 

20170127_075035.jpg

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2 hours ago, shotski said:

All this talk of March and we're not even out of January yet. Don't trust the models past 5 days, anything can and will happen. 

We trust the climate and the history......

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4 hours ago, Snipper said:

Think the younger ones in here could not cope with a really cold winter. 

Most are too soft. Central heating, double glazing, insulation and a soft life. 

Yes a nice dump of snow is great but when it goes on for weeks and months not so much fun. 

Might have to cut down on the takeaways  

 

Patronising guff. Loving the cold winter here in Slovakia (with proper double-glazing and insulation, which is actually lacking in most of the UK).

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14 hours ago, March said:

We trust the climate and the history......

??????

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can someone post the chart/charts that produced this? 

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