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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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16 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Yes. June 2012 was wetter than this by the way. 

 

Apparently the wettest June was indeed 2012 with 157.3mm (so just under the February reading). Pretty irrelevant anyway, like comparing apples to oranges! :D

Either way, I'm not hoping for a month with 157mm of rain thank you!

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20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Apparently the wettest June was indeed 2012 with 157.3mm (so just under the February reading). Pretty irrelevant anyway, like comparing apples to oranges! :D

Either way, I'm not hoping for a month with 157mm of rain thank you!

160.1mm, a few of Trevor Harley figures are questionable but in the official records it is 160.1mm for June 2012 :)

Edited by Weather-history

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Amazing to think that since the winter of 2013 I have only seen lying snow on one occasion and even that thawed by 11am. I have seen many snowless winters before but never a run like we are currently seeing.

Still on a positive note we should start to see colder winters returning especially in 2019.

 

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Winter is over after the weekend I am fed up of all the boring non action weather we get in this country ok if you lived in turkey or Greece this year.we probably will get a crap summer as well .rant over.

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Sorry got to laugh at those who try and predict over 5 days away on the model forum. It's a simulated computer that tries to "guess" what the future holds based on calculations that get programed into it every day. Not once have i seen all those who Ramp snow and cold be right yet and to be frank it's quite an embarrassment to watch. Try simply useing all the models and divide the average seen down the middle as a guide. Sick to death of so called know it alls shouting this and that and relying on one model as gospel. Quite clearly the ecm was all on its own regarding the block so take the average and that's usually about right and what we're now going to see next week. People should try looking out the window more instead of looking at the models and to then say whole of February is going to be wet sorry just have to laugh at that. How many times do I see my meto app change to rain just 2 or 3 days out. This whole predicting beyond 5 days is total garbage.

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2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Could be a contender for wettest February on record, I expect flood warnings issued during early Feb

Youve been expecting flood warnings since November.  Its been a very strange winter  this year  plenty of promise but nothing really as been delivered,

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46 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Amazing to think that since the winter of 2013 I have only seen lying snow on one occasion and even that thawed by 11am. I have seen many snowless winters before but never a run like we are currently seeing.

Still on a positive note we should start to see colder winters returning especially in 2019.

 

Yes,as bad as I can remember teits.

Like you say,God forbid I'm still around,looking forward to 2019 onwards.

Maybe 2040 lol.

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Just now, joggs said:

Yes,as bad as I can remember teits.

Like you say,God forbid I'm still around,looking forward to 2019 onwards.

Maybe 2040 lol.

why 2019? confused.com

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1 minute ago, beefy201 said:

why 2019? confused.com

Solar min  i would have thought

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Towels going in for me.Its not been a wash out like last winter but for snow its been pathetic, again.

We will probs see some snow in late march April but for me thanks but no thanks.

Scores on the doors, last winter 0/10 this winter 1/10...

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Light snow falling here and looks like it'll be an ice day too. Great end to a decent chilly spell. Just to see so much high pressure over or near the UK has been noteworthy for me, after what felt like years of endless lows. Boring for many, it seems and the lack of snow has been a disappointment. Still a month of winter left to go though. Hopefully the upcoming Atlantic spell won't last too long.

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1 hour ago, beefy201 said:

why 2019? confused.com

Yes,sorry.A deep solar minimum due to starthe around then.

Should mean weaker jet and more waviness to it.And more southerly tracking.Alot more involved though but history says it shouldn't  look too bad from a coldies pov.

Some scientists are touting 20 to 30 years of cooling.

Edited by joggs

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20 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Light snow falling here and looks like it'll be an ice day too. Great end to a decent chilly spell. Just to see so much high pressure over or near the UK has been noteworthy for me, after what felt like years of endless lows. Boring for many, it seems and the lack of snow has been a disappointment. Still a month of winter left to go though. Hopefully the upcoming Atlantic spell won't last too long.

Nice one SB :)

The problem for me and others away from the SE its not the best of patterns we have seen over the last few weeks, while it was generally cold across your region it was mild drizzlefest up here.

Think i have recorded around 9 hours of snowcover up here since mid November, pathetic in anyones book.:(

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On 1/25/2017 at 08:33, jethro said:

Some pretty pics of what might have been if we all lived in mainland Europe. If anyone comes up with a plan to drain the North Sea or the Channel and link us back up again, I'm in, give me a shout if you need a hand. "We need to build a wall!"..... (in the Atlantic, to deflect all the pesky wet warm air, so we can have pretty frozen waterfalls, shall we invoice the Caribbean....? hehe) :D

Plitivice Lakes, Croatia. Taken 20th January.

16143109_1945577412332017_7125863972462152511_n.jpg

16265773_1945577408998684_2500048940048780375_n.jpg

16266234_1945577468998678_1444033416788102195_n.jpg

 

Edited by Woollymummy

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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nice one SB :)

The problem for me and others away from the SE its not the best of patterns we have seen over the last few weeks, while it was generally cold across your region it was mild drizzlefest up here.

Think i have recorded around 9 hours of snowcover up here since mid November, pathetic in anyones book.:(

I can u understand your frustration with lack of snow, it does seem a bit unfair when even the Sahara has had snow! Also I appreciate not everywhere has been as sunny and cold as the SE. Bonus for me as I love sunshine whatever time of year. I'm just grateful that this winter I've not had to battle constant wind and rain and have been outdoors loads on days off work, very pleasant. Fingers crossed we see at least a few days of cold and snow in February  :)

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4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Nice one SB :)

The problem for me and others away from the SE its not the best of patterns we have seen over the last few weeks, while it was generally cold across your region it was mild drizzlefest up here.

Think i have recorded around 9 hours of snowcover up here since mid November, pathetic in anyones book.:(

I'd be happy to record 9 mins.Count yourself lucky.

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22 minutes ago, cornish snow said:

I'd be happy to record 9 mins.Count yourself lucky.

I still have snow on the ground from 3 weeks ago.

But it is far from pretty now :-)

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On 16 January 2017 at 05:53, knocker said:

A brief return of one old friend and perhaps a longer one for another as downstream energy distribution cranks up the thermal gradient once more.

gfs_z500a_natl_31.pnggfs_uv250_natl_38.png

But still looking on the bright side

gefs_t2ma_5d_eur_51.png

Temperature hovered around -1 all day where I was working, ground frozen solid. Great example of why anomaly charts in la la land  can't be trusted. 

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10 hours ago, joggs said:

Yes,sorry.A deep solar minimum due to starthe around then.

Should mean weaker jet and more waviness to it.And more southerly tracking.Alot more involved though but history says it shouldn't  look too bad from a coldies pov.

Some scientists are touting 20 to 30 years of cooling.

Yes apparently cycle 25 could be even less active than our current cycle. Just need a series of large volcanic eruptions to really bring us another mini ice age!

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You know the outlook is poor for cold when the ecm run finishes and there hasn't been 1 single comment on It!  High pressure to the east which everyone on the model thread has been getting so exited about all Winter should be seen as the equivalent of a Barttlet in future in terms of wrecking our chances of snow in Winter! 

Edited by KTtom

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21 hours ago, TEITS said:

Amazing to think that since the winter of 2013 I have only seen lying snow on one occasion and even that thawed by 11am. I have seen many snowless winters before but never a run like we are currently seeing.

Still on a positive note we should start to see colder winters returning especially in 2019.

 

How does anyone know that we will see colder winters returning in 2019?  Yes I acknowledge that the the upcoming solar minimum will increase the chance of more potent winter cold outbreaks, but it is not as clear cut as that.  It takes far more good luck than that to be guaranteed a good winter spell for the UK.  At this stage no-one can tell what winter 2017-18 will be like let alone 2018-19.  Yes so far winter 2016-17 hasn't brought much in the way of cold weather and has been dominated by high pressure though not far enough north to deliver a feed of deep cold Arctic air; we have had a good number of frosts but few really cold days, and most areas have seen little snowfall.  For the rest of the winter 2016-17, February may deliver something, but then again it might not.

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3 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

How does anyone know that we will see colder winters returning in 2019?  Yes I acknowledge that the the upcoming solar minimum will increase the chance of more potent winter cold outbreaks, but it is not as clear cut as that.  It takes far more good luck than that to be guaranteed a good winter spell for the UK.  At this stage no-one can tell what winter 2017-18 will be like let alone 2018-19.  Yes so far winter 2016-17 hasn't brought much in the way of cold weather and has been dominated by high pressure though not far enough north to deliver a feed of deep cold Arctic air; we have had a good number of frosts but few really cold days, and most areas have seen little snowfall.  For the rest of the winter 2016-17, February may deliver something, but then again it might not.

certainly will, a heck of a lot of rain, for my location, and all of the north and west, probably dry SE again

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If it's cold & meaningful snow you've been after then you could say this winter has been over for some time. I'm actually looking towards spring now. 

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What gets me is the constant putting back of everything it's like people just keep believing what they want and say for the start of jan this will happen then it's the middle and so on. In my experience unless it actually forecasts it on the BBC then it rarely happens. The garden paths are extremely long since iv been a member on here! Trouble is I'm addicted to it. Anyway enough moaning still the whole of Feb to go and probably March. Oh here I go again lol. Gota say I'm looking forward to some heat though. Let's just hope we get some of the white stuff before then though as I'm not quite ready to throw in the towel just yet

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