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Polar Maritime

Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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3 hours ago, bobbydog said:

The solar "uptick" is a minor blip. If you've given up on this winter, the next few could be interesting due to just that. Solar minimum before next winter?.....

yes looking like winter 2017/2018 will be dominated by northern blocking ,i have tons of soup stocked from this winter , well back to models and atlantic awakening but its going to have to fight hard ,would be realy nice to get some help from a SSW event ,I must be desperate for a flake of snow i,m watching tiny bits of something over devon ,curtains will be twitching tonight ,plus Halogen light ,cheers gang ,:hi::yahoo:

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50 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not bad! ECM at 168, high pressure closer, less wet/less windy, than last few ECM and GFS runs

ECM1-168.GIF?21-0

This doesn't look very good for the alps, does it?

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41 minutes ago, alr1970 said:

Aaaaaagh, the weather is sooooo BORING right now. A week of leaden grey skies, not a breath of wind, the merest hint of drizzle and one sunny day. And next week's forecast is basically the same.

Totally agree, I'd love a bit of wind and rain never mind snow at the moment. Apart from the odd frost and the cold NW'ly on the 12th/13th the weather for just about the whole of winter has been utterly dull in every sense of the word.

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Well been here since October looking at charts and run after run after run looking for Snow and cold. im drained ive no energy left to keep looking into the future. the only thing stopping me from saying see ya next winter is the possible SSW.. if it doesnt show up by the end of Jan then im calling an end to winter 2016/17.. so much promise at the start.. the pv looked totally battered early doors and we all was very excited because we all thought that HLB was going to kick in and send us into a winter wonder land. didnt happen then we all went into overdrive with the mega cold that the charts showed for early Jan.. didnt happen. yes some of us saw snow for about an hour or 2 at best and then here we find ourselves at the back end of Jan and still nothing to make us want to get excited...give it 2 weeks and we will all be saying plenty of time left still 4 weeks etc etc.. but i just dont see it. i dont see any cold snowy spell coming up before the end of Feb.. even if we get a SSW it does not always mean cold and snow..

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You know desperation has set in when there are more posts on the strat thread than the model one, seems to happen quite frequently at this time of year when we have mild winters, the first mention of an eQBO for next winter has been mentioned too (heard that in Feb of last year for this winter, did it materialise? no.)

Saying that though the last week in my local has been sunny, chilly with some frosts - so I'll take that anytime over cloud, rain and mildness (the next best thing if you can't get decent cold and snow).

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6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

You know desperation has set in when there are more posts on the strat thread than the model one, seems to happen quite frequently at this time of year when we have mild winters, the first mention of an eQBO for next winter has been mentioned too (heard that in Feb of last year for this winter, did it materialise? no.)

Saying that though the last week in my local has been sunny, chilly with some frosts - so I'll take that anytime over cloud, rain and mildness (the next best thing if you can't get decent cold and snow).

Yes the E-QBO didn't materialise, but that was at least a 1/50 year event, could be a 1/xxxxxx year because we don't have qbo data much further back.

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I'm almost ready to start looking past winter and towards the spring. Almost...

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8 minutes ago, radiohead said:

I'm almost ready to start looking past winter and towards the spring. Almost...

Yes, so that means surely forgetting this thread until October again when cold may appear>

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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Could be a lot worse, like when a lot of the UK's homes were underwater, flood misery, we could be seeing charts like this!

archives-2014-1-27-12-0.png

Can't complain about the last few days, brilliant sunshine , and  frosty, 100 times  better than the usual mild Atlantic driven crap that we are usually saddled with around here.:)

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1 hour ago, More Snow said:

Well been here since October looking at charts and run after run after run looking for Snow and cold. im drained ive no energy left to keep looking into the future. the only thing stopping me from saying see ya next winter is the possible SSW.. if it doesnt show up by the end of Jan then im calling an end to winter 2016/17.. so much promise at the start.. the pv looked totally battered early doors and we all was very excited because we all thought that HLB was going to kick in and send us into a winter wonder land. didnt happen then we all went into overdrive with the mega cold that the charts showed for early Jan.. didnt happen. yes some of us saw snow for about an hour or 2 at best and then here we find ourselves at the back end of Jan and still nothing to make us want to get excited...give it 2 weeks and we will all be saying plenty of time left still 4 weeks etc etc.. but i just dont see it. i dont see any cold snowy spell coming up before the end of Feb.. even if we get a SSW it does not always mean cold and snow..

Models are what they are: models! They take into account what their creators know about the atmospherical processes and that is a lot. But there is also a lot they don't know or are unable to bring into the models. There is a lot of uncertainty, exponentially increasing after D1. When you can't stand this uncertainty don't look at models! 

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2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

January tends to be like that now! happened to me on friday 13th, Arctic air remained, full thaw

Yes I have noticed that too; years ago the January sun had no warmth, but in these 'modern' days, it feels as warm as in March...;)

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On 1/20/2017 at 01:20, cheese said:

I'm wishing for spring and summer now, getting sick of winter. I'm actually hoping February has an early taste of spring with some mild, sunny days. My interest in any potential cold or snow is gone - just not interested at all anymore. 

Same here. My pantry temperature is now -1 so have had to shift some stuff back into the house, but nothing outside to play with except crunchy laundry. Boo hiss. Come one weather, either give us snow, or a bit more sunshine to warm things up a bit.

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2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Yes I have noticed that too; years ago the January sun had no warmth, but in these 'modern' days, it feels as warm as in March...;)

not just the sun, the general temp during cold spells is warmer now, a lot of snow wasn't even in the sun

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5 minutes ago, skatefan said:

Models are what they are: models! They take into account what their creators know about the atmospherical processes and that is a lot. But there is also a lot they don't know or are unable to bring into the models. There is a lot of uncertainty, exponentially increasing after D1. When you can't stand this uncertainty don't look at models! 

At what point did i say i couldnt stand to look at the models??

 

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Coldest nightime temp here in this 'non-Atlantic' winter has been a rather poor -2.7c although this January experienced quite a few frosts due to the surface cold high near the east, back in the late 80's even on a clear cold November night this figure was achievable. Shows how temps are rising in general, certainly here, still waiting for a sub 4c day too! :(

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17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not just the sun, the general temp during cold spells is warmer now, a lot of snow wasn't even in the sun

Lots in the Daily Express though.:D

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10 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Coldest nightime temp here in this 'non-Atlantic' winter has been a rather poor -2.7c although this January experienced quite a few frosts due to the surface cold high near the east, back in the late 80's even on a clear cold November night this figure was achievable. Shows how temps are rising in general, certainly here, still waiting for a sub 4c day too! :(

Does seem very mild and virtually snowless for a non Atlantic winter, sure in 90's we'd have seen more snow from 12th Jan, with the setup we had, and the east may not even have warmed up

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Hardly any posts on the model thread there are plenty of cold rampers on there but are no where to be seen at all. Not much going on weather-wise at the moment.  One good think is where I live been cold and sunny.

Edited by pegg24

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Costing me a fortune in grub for the birds, even my Holly tree is now devoid of berries, well worth it though.

Out there again in the morning with water for them, already -2.2c and falliing

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To be honest down here, we've had some bitter days and nights lately and it's felt like winter. Reminds me of my first winter here four years ago. Just need some snow, but in all honesty I'd rather sacrifice our summer to have a good winter next year. 

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3 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Lots in the Daily Express though.:D

Yep, predictions of severe winter weather mid February.

Nothing remotely cold in the latest models this evening.

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6 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Could be a lot worse, like when a lot of the UK's homes were underwater, flood misery, we could be seeing charts like this!

archives-2014-1-27-12-0.png

My reaction to charts like that:

giphy.gif

As cloudy as it's been here recently, at least it hasn't rained a lot. January on course to be another dry month.

Edited by cheese

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I ask myself whether there is any significance, towards the end of the GEFS anomalies, to the removal of the Russian lobe of the vortex, some retrogression of of the Atlantic trough and a rewed surge of positive anomalies to the N/NE?

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_57.pnggefs_z500a_nh_63.png

In the mean :shok: time do not forget the trend is your friend

gefs_t2ma_5d_eur_45.pnggefs_t2ma_5d_eur_65.png

Edited by knocker

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8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

A few days of poor charts for oldies but I expect we'll see a flip in FI over the next few days to something much more blocky!! Apart from that not much on the horizon , but enjoyed some pretty hard frosts and sun so not all bad.

What about us young guns? :D

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