Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

With the latest METO update, I think the prospects of anything white falling from the Sky in the next few weeks isn't great, the sliver of hope that GLOSEA was still showing a blocked 2nd half of Dec is waning with their update but lets see what this weeks updates say first as they may revert back.  Jan or Feb though, who knows maybe we will get all our winter in the last 2/3rds.

I'm not a fan of Irony, but that would just be typical wouldn't it! The weather has the last laugh! 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Roll on Winter 2026/7. Glosea5 and EC46 ens long range CFS combo model shows potential.

[Ali1977]

13 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm not a fan of Irony, but that would just be typical wouldn't it! The weather has the last laugh! 

No doubt - The METO didn't mention cold and snow I guess, just colder than average.  

Mid month still has a few ENS showing Northen blocking and cold weather but I am definitely not holding my breath any more.  Lets see what the EC46 says, what it says and does is another matter but it's still a useful tool.  It would be interesting to know what happened atmospherically that made it flip last run, as well as why GLOASEA has stuck to it's guns so solidly but now looks like being wrong too (I know it still has time to be correct)

Edited December 5, 2016 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, jvenge said:

Well, not me, I had it during the weekend ;-)

You are fairly high up and in the north west. You should have a good shout with seasonal norms, I would have thought?

Now, it is looking fairly dry, so even if you got the cold, which is a fairly big if, the chances of it aligning well with moisture doesn't look too promising, I must admit. It has also been very dry here the past month.

Hello again, im afraid snow round these parts is bordering on extinct, we got a brief dusting in November, but hand on heart, its been terrible for the last 3 years.

[Chris.R]

I don't get this Meto update is gospel thing. Surely they are just working with the latest signals which can and will change with every run at the moment in this period of volatility. Surely it would be better to   Compare them over a few days to see the range of possibilities on the table and to see if they establish a consistent theme. Also we should remember to pay detailed attention to exactly what people such as  Ian are saying in here in order that they are not misinterpreted as may have happened in the past. 

[igloo]

44 minutes ago, Downburst said:

The odd thing about the rainfall anomaly is the deviation from mean is nearly always tiny. I mean if you take a location that gets 80 mm mean for December, to say that a 10% swing of 8 mm would mean it would be particularly wet, or feel wet is too much, also a swing the other way. Notice you never get noticeable swings, and maybe that is because they don't show any noticeable swing. Of course it also masks the frequency of the wet days or even hours, could be a couple of storms making up 30 mm, in real terms. For that reason, along with the temp anomaly's, these anomaly from mean have to be reviewed carefully indeed and are perhaps useful for flood agencies and other service providers.

Posted 35 minutes ago · Report post

  3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM for winter

December

Temperature - Slightly above normal - precipitation well below average

January

Temperature - No strong signal perhaps marginally above average in parts of Scotland, NI and ROI - precipitation below average

February

Temperature - Marginally above average - precipitation above average for most

 

The odd thing about the rainfall anomaly is the deviation from mean is nearly always tiny. I mean if you take a location that gets 80 mm mean for December, to say that a 10% swing of 8 mm would mean it would be particularly wet, or feel wet is too much, also a swing the other way. Notice you never get noticeable swings, and maybe that is because they don't show any noticeable swing. Of course it also masks the frequency of the wet days or even hours, could be a couple of storms making up 30 mm, in real terms. For that reason, along with the temp anomaly's, these anomaly from mean have to be reviewed carefully indeed and are perhaps useful for flood agencies and other service providers

well i hope those charts are wrong otherwise it would be game set and match already  but the good thing is there must be at least another dozen of similar  charts telling a different  story 

Edited December 5, 2016 by igloo

[booferking]

I cant believe with all these background signals since October as we stand if i dont see snow before 13th Dec then last year has turned out better snow wise than this year to date just let that sink in one of the wettest mildest decemebers on record had 2 days of lying snow on the ground (3 inches at that to),  all this talk of this potentially cold snowy winter weather and all we have is a couple of days of frost you couldnt make it up rant over...

[northwestsnow]

Im actually wondering if this spell of settled weather muted by the meto for mid month is not going to materialize if im being honest, gfs is intent on blasting the jet across the pond and the ukmo 144 looks to me like its going to go the same way, i doubt very much that flimsy 1015mb ridge is going to do much in the way of halting the atlantic steam train...few things in life can be taken for granted but im beginning to think the jet firing up and dominating the uk 'winter' is one of them....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

And the latest meto mrf is not great, reads to me like wet and mild followed by a uk high and then the high slipping back into europe to allow the Atlantic in.

Dreadful dreadful stuff...

TMW cruel, but at least that sounds dry, UK high could be worse

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Hello again, im afraid snow round these parts is bordering on extinct, we got a brief dusting in November, but hand on heart, its been terrible for the last 3 years.

I'd be more confident of snow where you are 202m asl, PM air you stand a chance

[moorlander]

Chin up everyone

Still on the cards for a colder period late month, maybe not snow for most but overnight freezing fog drifting over everything for a nice white rime coat is better than nothing surly

[I remember Atlantic 252]

47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im actually wondering if this spell of settled weather muted by the meto for mid month is not going to materialize if im being honest, gfs is intent on blasting the jet across the pond and the ukmo 144 looks to me like its going to go the same way, i doubt very much that flimsy 1015mb ridge is going to do much in the way of halting the atlantic steam train...few things in life can be taken for granted but im beginning to think the jet firing up and dominating the uk 'winter' is one of them....

or me, I don't use TWO but tend to agree with majority of posts by member 'Shropshire', like me would be surprised if settled spell comes off

[booferking]

One thing you will see right at the end of the run there will be some sort amplification and were chasing 10 day charts again well my chase is over.

Edited December 5, 2016 by booferking

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, booferking said:

One thing you will see right at the end of the run there will be some sort amplifcation and were chasing 10 day charts again well my chase is over.

You'll be back! lol We all say right that's it I'm taking a break from the models then the next morning you'll be checking the outputs. Admittedly its grim stuff and I'm afraid Glosea and the rest have really been shown up. At this point I'll stick to signs of life within the ops and ensembles upto max T240hrs. In which case the ECM has had the last rites.

Edited December 5, 2016 by nick sussex

[Aiden2012]

Think I will come back in a weeks time see if anything is better cause these charts are awfull

[igloo]

6 minutes ago, booferking said:

One thing you will see right at the end of the run there will be some sort amplification and were chasing 10 day charts again well my chase is over.

your wrong no amplification even at day 10 the worst ECM run for a long time lets hope its just a outlier otherwise the met office will have to ditch there forecast for christmas big time

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You'll be back! lol We all say right that's it I'm taking a break from the models then the next morning you'll be checking the outputs. Admittedly its grim stuff and I'm afraid Glosea and the rest have really been shown up. At this point I'll stick to signs of life within the ops and ensembles upto max T240hrs.

I might just stay now no amplification at the end of the run so nothing to chase haha you know me to well nick

Edited December 5, 2016 by booferking

[knocker]

If the ec46 comes out tonight with a swing to cold and snow then beatification will be instantaneous.

[Bristawl Si]

So guys and gals

What happened to

the favourable "background signals" and the weakened vortex?

The front loaded cold winter?

Are we heading for a mediocre winter?

It would be better to have a raging jet that, over time, heads south - at least there'd be a better chance of some snow action.

[blizzard81]

Shocking ecm 12z op! I will wait for the ensembles but if they downgrade again (the 00z set were a downgrade on the previous 12z suite) then I fully expect the 46 dayer to be a further downgrade to Thursday's. A deflating evening so far.

[daz_4]

Oh well, let's move the cold watch to the third decade of December and act like everything is going as planned 

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

If the ec46 comes out tonight with a swing to cold and snow then beatification will be instantaneous.

I reckon the ec46 will lose any blocking signal and increase the risk of unsettles weather into the New Year.

At least with zonality and a slightly weaker PV we might get a topper at least. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

So guys and gals

What happened to

the favourable "background signals" and the weakened vortex?

The front loaded cold winter?

Are we heading for a mediocre winter?

It would be better to have a raging jet that, over time, heads south - at least there'd be a better chance of some snow action.

I never believe these 'signals' it's mega FI straw clutching, Atlantic tends to be underestimated by most models, at least not looking too wet, but on these 12Z's daffs could be out by Xmas, 2 years on the trot?

daffs becoming much earlier too? sure in 90's they weren't out until April, then March, then Feb, now starting Jan, and last year Dec

[lassie23]

December is looking like a dud, I will have to side with the October Fog Index, which indicated winter arriving later, wonder whether the models will back it up.

[booferking]

I would take zonality everyday over these failed height attempts least there is a chance of some pm air mixed in sink the slug cause it ani't going to do sweet fa for us.