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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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^ same anomalies that showed a massive scandi high and promoted a GH last month? I highly doubt we will get anything wintry but in my opinion anomalies are a nonsense way of forecasting

Edited by Weathizard

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4 hours ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

I am geting the feeling that I can write the 2017 winter obituary for the UK. Time to sharpen the pencil

What in the middle of January? Come back in 2 months time and ask that question

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1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

^ same anomalies that showed a massive scandi high and promoted a GH last month? I highly doubt we will get anything wintry but in my opinion anomalies are a nonsense way of forecasting

Actually they didn't but for some odd reason that is quite beyond me many people insist on misreading what they are actually saying. I assume it has something to do with what they want to believe but I could be wrong. Then again you are of course entitled to your opinion backed up as ever with some stunning scientific reasoning.

Edited by knocker

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53 minutes ago, knocker said:

Actually they didn't but for some odd reason that is quite beyond me many people insist on misreading what they are actually saying. I assume it has something to do with what they want to believe but I could be wrong. The again you are of course entitled to your opinion backed up as ever with some stunning scientific reasoning.

Confirmation bias knocker. So prevalent on this forum, so often pointed out, but scientific and logical thinking is so often ignored. 

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Sun!! Blue sky!! OMG!!! :yahoo:

Edited by cheese

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Snow in the Sahara desert now :-(

Can the weather take any more of the pish out of the UK?

Edited by cyclonic happiness

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

Actually they didn't but for some odd reason that is quite beyond me many people insist on misreading what they are actually saying. I assume it has something to do with what they want to believe but I could be wrong. Then again you are of course entitled to your opinion backed up as ever with some stunning scientific reasoning.

I have no bias because my winter weather preference is sunshine and crisp weather, so I'm happy. So you're saying the anomalies didn't back the scandi high saga just gone? Realistically anomalies are useful as a guide to the most likely outcomes but they are as fickle as the models themselves!

No need to be condescending about it, your scientific knowledge undoubtedly exceeds mine just stating my opinion.

Edited by Weathizard

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7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

 

I have no bias because my winter weather preference is sunshine and crisp weather, so I'm happy. So you're saying the anomalies didn't back the scandi high saga just gone? Realistically anomalies are useful as a guide to the most likely outcomes but they are as fickle as the models themselves!

No need to be condescending about it, your scientific knowledge undoubtedly exceeds mine just stating my opinion.

Agree,folk who have a fantastic spectrum of knowledge can be just as easily led astray by model output. At times they can be very condescending and dismissive of a different opinion,something they should probably think a bit more about....but then again,that is only my humble opinion. 

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18 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

 

I have no bias because my winter weather preference is sunshine and crisp weather, so I'm happy. So you're saying the anomalies didn't back the scandi high saga just gone? Realistically anomalies are useful as a guide to the most likely outcomes but they are as fickle as the models themselves!

No need to be condescending about it, your scientific knowledge undoubtedly exceeds mine just stating my opinion.

I wasn't being condescending and your opinion is as equally valid as mine but think it would be more helpful to other readers if you qualified statements such as, "but in my opinion anomalies are a nonsense way of forecasting" with at least an attempt as to why. I say this because quite a few people with far greater expertise than you or I feel, that used correctly, they are one of the better ways of picking out forthcoming changes in long wave patterns.

And for the record I agree with them

Edited by knocker

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12 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

 

I have no bias because my winter weather preference is sunshine and crisp weather, so I'm happy. So you're saying the anomalies didn't back the scandi high saga just gone? Realistically anomalies are useful as a guide to the most likely outcomes but they are as fickle as the models themselves!

No need to be condescending about it, your scientific knowledge undoubtedly exceeds mine just stating my opinion.

The anomalies are not fickle - it is the understanding of the climatology they are set against. Most (all) of the models will base their anomaly calculation on the 1981 - 2010 climatology base - we need to refer to what that is in order to make correct judgements and, most importantly, remember that an anomaly does not represent actual contours.

Local European climatology for Z500 -  base '81 - '10.

6e6bc2f6a76e1a5f23e63b96e09ccee8.png

Height anomalies in the Scandinavian sector would need to be much greater than that seen on most of the recent modelling - in order to represent the type of high needed for advecting cold to the UK as a whole.

 

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its been a strange old winter this season how often can we say it has been dryer than average but milder than average al of my 42 years dry winters meant cold winters and wet winters meant mild winters very strange stuff going on and it looks like this theme will continue for the rest of the season and may it continue in spring and summer or is it wishfull thinking

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And the Atlantic finally wins out, but hang on a minute.........:cc_confused:

remember, the trend is your friend. 

image.jpg

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10 minutes ago, shotski said:

And the Atlantic finally wins out, but hang on a minute.........:cc_confused:

remember, the trend is your friend. 

 

Isn't it just. :shok:

 

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.png

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2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Isn't it just. :shok:

 

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.png

Well spotted knocker, potential northerly there. :D

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Och well, another year without needing to sweep a foot of potential off my daughter's driveway!:cold-emoji:

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1 hour ago, igloo said:

its been a strange old winter this season how often can we say it has been dryer than average but milder than average al of my 42 years dry winters meant cold winters and wet winters meant mild winters very strange stuff going on and it looks like this theme will continue for the rest of the season and may it continue in spring and summer or is it wishfull thinking

Your quite right its all very strange, the sun today in London felt very strong and it occurred to me that we have moved on exactly a month since the Winter equinox on Dec 21st, so slowly but surely the days will be getting longer now as we go into February. Traditionally the last week of January and the first in February have marked the coldest time of the year, but I can't see it being anything much this year, have we had any decent  late Jan/early Feb snowfalls in recent years?

I suppose it is a little bit annoying that much of Europe, including Spain, Italy, the Balkans, and parts of North Africa including the Sahara desert can get decent snowfall, but we have to wait for SSW's and things being just right to get anything more than an inch of wet sloppy snow thats gone within 24hrs..

gfs-2-6.png

gfs-2-54.png

Edited by snowray

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12 minutes ago, snowray said:

Your quite right its all very strange, the sun today in London felt very strong and it occurred to me that we have moved on exactly a month since the Winter equinox on Dec 21st, so slowly but surely the days will be getting longer now as we go into February. Traditionally the last week of January and the first in February have marked the coldest time of the year, but I can't see it being anything much this year, have we had any decent  late Jan/early Feb snowfalls in recent years?

I suppose it is a little bit annoying that much of Europe, including Spain, Italy, the Balkans, and parts of North Africa including the Sahara desert can get decent snowfall, but we have to wait for SSW's and things being just right to get anything more than an inch of wet sloppy snow thats gone within 24hrs..

gfs-2-6.png

gfs-2-54.png

Think about sums it up for us. When places like that get snow and all we get sod all. 

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16 minutes ago, snowray said:

 

I suppose it is a little bit annoying that much of Europe, including Spain, Italy, the Balkans, and parts of North Africa including the Sahara desert can get decent snowfall, but we have to wait for SSW's and things being just right to get anything more than an inch of wet sloppy snow thats gone within 24hrs..

 

 

A little annoying?

I should imagine it exceedingly annoying for our ex-European friends for it all to get dumped on them and us to escape without  as much as a flake, so to speak.

Edited by knocker

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The silence in MOD thread recently has spoke volumes, looks like I'm not the only who was wondering what charts certain member's were looking at when they said there was still potential.

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It does feel a bit like Winters over at the moment. I think we all feel a bit deflated like we are stuck in some sort of weather purgatory. I know we've still got 39 days of Winter left (plus some more if you include March's wintry potential) but it does feel like there's little or nothing to look forward to at the moment if scenes of a Winter wonderland are your thing. It could change for the better, but I'm getting to the point now where I'm coming to the realisation that there's a high chance this Winter will be consigned to the one to forget category. 

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34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Och well, another year without needing to sweep a foot of potential off my daughter's driveway!:cold-emoji:

Have I woken up in March or something.  Last time I checked it was January, coldest part of winter yet to come 

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28 minutes ago, Anon90 said:

The silence in MOD thread recently has spoke volumes, looks like I'm not the only who was wondering what charts certain member's were looking at when they said there was still potential.

Couldn't agree more mate...IF I had a pound every time  someone talks about potential for an Easterly!  It's not happening...all the potential is doing is wasting winter away while we get stuck in no man's land!  When was the last time we had a potent easterly....speaks volumes.

 

In all seriousness I think the mods should open up a 'potential easterly' thread to save the rest of us the boredom.

Edited by KTtom

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