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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

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Oh dear, seems the Zonal train has been delayed, possibly derailed. Still waiting for the warm zephyrs!!!image.jpg

 

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1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

I do feel your pain as cold and cloudy is just crap. Luckily for us in the SE, we are currently on the right side of the front straddling the UK. Hopefully the clear, cold continental air will push further N and E as it really has been a beauty of a day here. All depends on the movement of that annoying front, typically it sits over the UK for days on end.

First time ever i'd like to be working down south!! So envious! Tomorrow looks perfect,no body could complain.

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44 minutes ago, knocker said:

Still on course with the pattern change with the ridge and invigorated vortex. Could well initiate some further influence from the Azores. Really warms the cockles.....

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.pnggefs_z500a_nh_65.png2017011712.f336.100.nonenonehghtnonenone.g201.mrf.gif

And your not a biased at all are you.....

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24 minutes ago, shotski said:

Oh dear, seems the Zonal train has been delayed, possibly derailed. Still waiting for the warm zephyrs!!!image.jpg

 

Shouldn't be long now

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

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10 minutes ago, markyo said:

And your not a biased at all are you.....

 

I'm glad you appreciate that, many don't

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

 

I'm glad you appreciate that, many don't

In the immortal words of The Thatch: Sydney's nuts are paramount!:D

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10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Shouldn't be long now

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

Wow that looks great, WAA into Scandinavia and the beast ready to pounce. Well spotted Knocker. 

image.jpg

Edited by shotski

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Shouldn't be long now

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

You need a ticket to Canada Knocker

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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

You need a ticket to Canada Knocker

Don't tell me you haven't read my earlier biased post MWB. :shok: All that's soon to change with tropical forcing returning North America to cold in the pattern change.

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I note a fluttering of the wings in the other thread about the day 10 ecm. Surely not but it's quite intriguing as to why. Now place your bets......

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.png

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43 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

I'm glad you appreciate that, many don't

So true....if only they knew the truth:)

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Aye there are stirring in the MOD re ECM 240 hr "screams potential " in the 12z 

i think 2016/2017 has been a classic in terms of blocking . What happens when blocking falls in the wrong place. The irony of majority of mainland Europe having a decent cold snowy winter while our blocking produced boring non descript ( my POV some might love this type of winter)

Does have a de ju vu type feel of winters of late 90's early 2000's when the bitter air deflected into Greece / turkey . 

There are many variables at play but surely a NAO - phase must be the key followed by -AO then mojo then QBO etc , the NAO was forecast to enter a - phase mid 2000 as I remember that's what the meto forcast .of course there is variation in state during the winter season but does anyone know what phase the meto see the nao currently , I m sure it has a ten year cycle and we've certainly missed those lower heights in the med / Iberia 

 

 

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Not sure if it's model fatigue but not even interested in the ECM... phantom easterlies are boring now!

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8 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Better than heavy rain!

True i suppose

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Parts of Canada really warming up

Churchill up to 0c at the moment! (normally around -25c)

Probably short lived but what effect could this have downstream in the UK?

:cold:

Canada 17 Jan 2017.png

Edited by snowblizzard

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56 minutes ago, snowice said:

This is what Steve Murr noticed at 120hrs ECM, cold easterly for South East England. 

It's already here unless we warm up and get cold again

14 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Why does he talk about a "charmed life." The south isn't suffering blizzards or an extreme freeze or a hurricane etc. Funny how some presenters like to exaggerate, like describing 7°C in January as a cold day. No disrespect to Mr Hammond, I suspect it is all part and parcel of entertaining as you inform.

It's no where near 7c here, my high today was 2.3 and it's freezing right now in the -. Frost everywhere. No blizzard I agree, would love one to show up from somewhere soon though. It hasn't warmed up here since the cold spell, in fact it's got much colder.

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I see that, once again, people are getting over-excited at one run of one model, and just to make matters worse they are getting excited about a bit of computer speculation that's 9 or 10 days away.

Are they masochists? And where's that facepalm emote when you need it?

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1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Not sure if it's model fatigue but not even interested in the ECM... phantom easterlies are boring now!

I just wanted to punch something when I saw it

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More ramping = more anger and mis-placed frustration down the line.

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1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

Parts of Canada really warming up

Churchill up to 0c at the moment! (normally around -25c)

Probably short lived but what effect could this have downstream in the UK?

:cold:

Canada 17 Jan 2017.png

none i would have thought if your looking for cold and snow

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Is there any other European country/city/Mediterranean island that hasn't had significant snowfall from a polar continental source?

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1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

It's already here unless we warm up and get cold again

It's no where near 7c here, my high today was 2.3 and it's freezing right now in the -. Frost everywhere. No blizzard I agree, would love one to show up from somewhere soon though. It hasn't warmed up here since the cold spell, in fact it's got much colder.

It's absolutely freezing here coldest night without a doubt . Cold contental air rocks . But preferably the convection with it.:sorry:

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2 hours ago, southbank said:Aye there are stirring in the MOD re ECM 240 hr "screams potential " in the 12z 

 

 

The latest Easterly already looks destined for Central Europe again, but I think the more salient point is that the unanimous prediction last weekend of a return of a mobile westerly pattern for the end of next weekend is now in some doubt. So if they models can get that so wrong, 'winterisoverman' might have to come back out of his box.

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