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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

    I think the thing that is making this winter so poor is the potential it had shown. Previous few winters showed basically nothing,this one did. Makes the let down which it is appearing to be even more hard to swallow. Personally i am really hoping for a cool wet summer now,the prospect of weeks of uncomfortable heat is shall we say not good at all!!

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    This is wrong on so many levels...

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    55 minutes ago, markyo said:

    I think the thing that is making this winter so poor is the potential it had shown. Previous few winters showed basically nothing,this one did. Makes the let down which it is appearing to be even more hard to swallow. Personally i am really hoping for a cool wet summer now,the prospect of weeks of uncomfortable heat is shall we say not good at all!!

    Yes, very disappointing so far!

    But, there's still time for a decent cold/snowy outbreak, February might deliver?

    Looking further ahead, it's been a relatively settled Autumn & Winter, high pressure dominant with below average rainfall.

    Already talk of reservoirs low and possible drought in South on the news last week.

    Mother nature normally redresses the balance, so we can probably look forward to a very wet period during Spring or Summer.

    UK climate!   :wallbash:

     

    Edited by snowblizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    24 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    Yes, very disappointing so far!

    But, there's still time for a decent cold/snowy outbreak, February might deliver?

    Looking further ahead, it's been a relatively settled Autumn & Winter, high pressure dominant with below average rainfall.

    Already talk of reservoirs low and possible drought in South on the news last week.

    Mother nature normally redresses the balance, so we can probably look forward to a very wet period during Spring or Summer.

    UK climate!   :wallbash:

     

    Old Ma Nature usually addresses the balance in the UK,a dry hot summer would most certainly not be good at all,levels are low,wildlife suffers,fingers crossed for a natural re balance. I know many yearn for those high temps but it's like those seeking really low temps in winter,they both hurt and destroy the countryside,i was around in 76,that was a killer without any doubt.

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

    The mild warmth just before this baby lands a punch. If Im not mistaken that is a SSW. The GFS is really good at predicting them long range.  Long term blocking I wouldnt bet against now. Feb looks very very interesting. It is to forget the cold blob in the atlantic ocean. But from my untrained eyes it seems to be where alot of the high pressures increase from. 

     npst30.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
    12 minutes ago, markyo said:

    Old Ma Nature usually addresses the balance in the UK,a dry hot summer would most certainly not be good at all,levels are low,wildlife suffers,fingers crossed for a natural re balance. I know many yearn for those high temps but it's like those seeking really low temps in winter,they both hurt and destroy the countryside,i was around in 76,that was a killer without any doubt.

    Think a repeat of 2013 for feb and march is on the cards. Time before that was spring 2006. 1984 produced similar synoptics. 1984 and2006 were long warm summers. I expect the same this year if for no other reason than being overdue. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    I seem to remember a brief return to zonality in mid-February 2006, only for 3-4 days between the cold first half and the easterly in the second half. The models might be showing something similar with time, if zonality returns at all (which is still doubtful). If a scenario does play out like that, I just hope the easterly has 10 times more punch than the Feb 2006 one which was just grey and cold. The serious cold and snow didn't really arrive until the winds swerved northerly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)

    I have been a member on here for 10 years now.  I have never had the time to understand many of the technical sides of the conversations, but do read and enjoy the model output discussion posts.  More especially in winter as I like cold weather and the height of summer as i like warm dry weather. (Pity I live in the UK!)

     

    Here is an opinion I have formed.  Please let me know your thoughts on this - 

    What I have noticed is that the models are no better at predicting the weather now as they were 10 years back.  Its quite obvious that there are many factors involved in producing our weather past T+72 that are not understood by anyone.  Either data is missing, incorrect or the calculations used to predict outcomes are not right.

    I would have thought thought that after 10 years there would have been a marked improvement in the models capability, by using the available knowledge and data to make improvements.  Sadly that does not seem to be the case.

    The main focus on the model thread is forecasting based on current data.  This is a continual cycle of poor predictions beyond the T+72 timeframe, because the models are not correct to varying degrees.   I feel that if more focus was given to understanding what went wrong and why, then people would become better at spotting the signals and therefore making prediction based on what is shown.

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    Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

    Now the ECM has gone on full on mild mode perhaps cold fans should be more hopeful given the overrated model has spent most of this winter predicting cold spells that have not materialised. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, Kentish Man said:

    Now the ECM has gone on full on mild mode perhaps cold fans should be more hopeful given the overrated model has spent most of this winter predicting cold spells that have not materialised. 

    To be fair, rather than the model itself being 'overrated', it's its minuscule (verification stats) advantage over the GFS, in the far-reaches of FI, that causes a few folk to mislead themselves? I really do care if, at T+300, the ECM outscores the GFS by 0.2% or whatever; at that distance, it's the intra-run spread of the potential solutions that matters and not the  individual options themselves, I think?:cc_confused:

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
    59 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    I seem to remember a brief return to zonality in mid-February 2006, only for 3-4 days between the cold first half and the easterly in the second half. The models might be showing something similar with time, if zonality returns at all (which is still doubtful). If a scenario does play out like that, I just hope the easterly has 10 times more punch than the Feb 2006 one which was just grey and cold. The serious cold and snow didn't really arrive until the winds swerved northerly.

    It was march 06 that turned really brutal. Most snow I had seen for years. Recorded 17 days of snow lying. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
    56 minutes ago, Kentish Man said:

    Now the ECM has gone on full on mild mode perhaps cold fans should be more hopeful given the overrated model has spent most of this winter predicting cold spells that have not materialised. 

    Hmmm that nly blast was pretty severe though. Winds were very strong and blowing in Graupel and thundersnow. I personally think the GFS and ECM got it right. A brief Nly followed on by a toppler high pressure.  The easterly was grasping at straws. If you want an easterly wait till feb. The coldest part of our winter isnt here yet. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

    If I'm remembering my northerlies correctly, I recall the Feb 06 one being fairly long lasting and good for northern Scotland in terms of snow, but didn't deliver much snow elsewhere - cold though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
    5 hours ago, knocker said:

    The GFS sees January out with brutal warmth

    gfs_t2maf_slp_uk2_65.png

    16C above average? So about a 19-22C daily max in Jan?

    nah, I wish. 

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    1 minute ago, Backtrack said:

    16C above average? So about a 19-22C daily max in Jan?

    nah, I wish. 

    °F

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
    Just now, Mapantz said:

    °F

    Oh hahah! 9C above average then. Still remarkably mild

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

    Oh hahah! 9C above average then. Still remarkably mild

    Well, and thankfully there's no [unlike] button, if I can't have any really meaningful cold, super-mild is the next best scenario...:oops:

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    2 hours ago, Freezing-Point said:

    I have been a member on here for 10 years now.  I have never had the time to understand many of the technical sides of the conversations, but do read and enjoy the model output discussion posts.  More especially in winter as I like cold weather and the height of summer as i like warm dry weather. (Pity I live in the UK!)

     

    Here is an opinion I have formed.  Please let me know your thoughts on this - 

    What I have noticed is that the models are no better at predicting the weather now as they were 10 years back.  Its quite obvious that there are many factors involved in producing our weather past T+72 that are not understood by anyone.  Either data is missing, incorrect or the calculations used to predict outcomes are not right.

    I would have thought thought that after 10 years there would have been a marked improvement in the models capability, by using the available knowledge and data to make improvements.  Sadly that does not seem to be the case.

    The main focus on the model thread is forecasting based on current data.  This is a continual cycle of poor predictions beyond the T+72 timeframe, because the models are not correct to varying degrees.   I feel that if more focus was given to understanding what went wrong and why, then people would become better at spotting the signals and therefore making prediction based on what is shown.

    I remember seeing a verification graph over time for days 1 to 10, there actually has been a lot of improvement but from around 20% to 45% but that means it is still more often wrong than right! It also seems to have reached a ceiling for the last 4-5 years 

     

    edit here is one of these graphs, with day 9 not 10 showing

     

    ECMWFdet_ACC_Z500_NH_SH_all_00_365runnin

     

    edit2: not a lot of improvement since 2005 indeed

    Edited by ArHu3
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    Posted
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level

    If were now looking at a SSW event to bring cold and it's already mid January, then we might as well give up.eady take

    The Met Office update for the 15-30 day period has done it for me today, with them hinting at a return to Westerly driven weather.

     

    This winter will do down as yet another that was so close, but so far and one where the models all struggled.

     

    So much eye candy that never materialized.

     

    I already take charts  post 192 with a pinch of salt, I think I'll take charts post 144 with as much salt from now on.

     

    Winter 2016/2017 is dead as far as snow is concerned. 

     

    Roll on 2017/2018 which should be much better, as were now in solar minimum, should just get better and better for the next 3 or 4 winters

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Not only the easterly failed but even the high that will sit over us doesn't look like giving much frost. The countryfile forecast is just talking about a mild and benign week with frost making an occassional appearance in the southeast. 

    Then it showed a southwesterly for next week as our high pulls away southeast. So this high looks like wasting two valuable weeks of winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    30 minutes ago, EML Network said:

    If were now looking at a SSW event to bring cold and it's already mid January, then we might as well give up.eady take

    The Met Office update for the 15-30 day period has done it for me today, with them hinting at a return to Westerly driven weather.

     

    This winter will do down as yet another that was so close, but so far and one where the models all struggled.

     

    So much eye candy that never materialized.

     

    I already take charts  post 192 with a pinch of salt, I think I'll take charts post 144 with as much salt from now on.

     

    Winter 2016/2017 is dead as far as snow is concerned. 

     

    Roll on 2017/2018 which should be much better, as were now in solar minimum, should just get better and better for the next 3 or 4 winters

    Not the earliest "winter's over" post, but rather premature, methinks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    Well some in the MOD thread are now comparing current conditions to the same date in 1991 and noticing stark similarities. We can but hope I suppose.

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    After recent inaccuracies in forecasts relating to both pattern and detail within T+120, am I now seriously expected to believe forecasts as far out as T+720 and possibly beyond should verify in their entirety?

    :rofl:

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