Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[ChrisWSM]

Funny how Thursdays produce amazing winter weather then by Friday morning its all slowly disappearing...the charts below were being posted in the model thread last Thursday

5864e97c4703b_ScreenShot2016-12-29at10_45_19_png_5023a58e1f28ee36e58d6d9df888271f.bmp

gens-0-0-276.bmp

[I remember Atlantic 252]

If anything 06Z bit better, slightly further west, around 12 hour possible snow window for my location, obviously winds have to be just right

[Wildswimmer Pete]

3 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

its ok everyone, i think its safe to say winters over, just seen the front page of the Daily Express and it says coldest winter for 6 years, well surely that cant be hard to achieve, but i guess it can.

Well, around 4th February is Imbolc, the start of Pagan Spring!

Edited January 6, 2017 by Wildswimmer Pete

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Ravelin said:

It is a difficult one isn't it. On the one hand it is better than endless mild rain and we have had some decent frosts and cool sunny days. On the other hand it's unrelentingly boring.

Boring it may be to some but I'm loving all the sunny days and frosty nights this winter. What a fantastic change to recent hideous winters completely dominated by Atlantic storms, cloud, rain and wind. Beats an inch of slush too any day! If we can get a decent easterly this winter with proper ice days and snow, great, but if not, the sunny high pressure will do me nicely.

Edited January 6, 2017 by stainesbloke

[Ravelin]

Daren't post this in the Model thread, but just for @nick sussex

The British weather generally really is the Spam of global weather.

[MP-R]

Yes some bizarre comments by some people. Wanting cold weather, then when it arrives it's boring... Much better today though with grey skies and rain just beginning...

Re the models, I personally never bought into the easterly. I'm more a fan of northerlies that become easterlies I.e. get the snow in at the start of the cold spell then keep it via a dry easterly rather than wait for a breakdown event. I'm still optimistic for some wintry showers late next week and a trip to the hills may be in order.

[Seasonality]

2 hours ago, JOPRO said:

Told you so merchants out in force on the Mod thread this morning, BORE OFF!!!!!! 

 

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, Ravelin said:

Daren't post this in the Model thread, but just for @nick sussex

The British weather generally really is the Spam of global weather.

The weather Gods have listened to the 'voice of the people' ...

BTW, always been a fan of spam fritters but the lovely Danish chopped pork in the big round tin is no more.

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The weather Gods have listened to the 'voice of the people' ...

BTW, always been a fan of spam fritters but the lovely Danish chopped pork in the big round tin is no more.

Ireland is the worst, milder and wetter.

[MP-R]

23 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The weather Gods have listened to the 'voice of the people' ...

BTW, always been a fan of spam fritters but the lovely Danish chopped pork in the big round tin is no more.

Looks like it's Turkey's turn to be mild and wet en masse on that map! 20C on the north coast where I'm sure they not long ago had lake-effect snow.

[Tonyinhampshire]

20 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Looks like it's Turkey's turn to be mild and wet en masse on that map! 20C on the north coast where I'm sure they not long ago had lake-effect snow.

Water levels are really low for January. Southern Water main Resovoir just around 53 %. Praying for a wet spring or Summer washout.... Though really i dont need to pray for that.

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Water levels are really low for January. Southern Water main Resovoir just around 53 %. Praying for a wet spring or Summer washout.... Though really i dont need to pray for that.

Yes otherwise this might be on for summer

[Kentish Man]

75/76 was a very dry mild and uneventful winter like this one and of course a long hot summer followed with drought orders and the rest

[Matthew.]

21 minutes ago, Kentish Man said:

75/76 was a very dry mild and uneventful winter like this one and of course a long hot summer followed with drought orders and the rest

Yes there seems to be a general pattern of dry winters leading to anticyclonic summers with odd anomalies such as the wet 1994/95 winter. I wonder if the neutral effect of ENSO has anything to do with it?

[AderynCoch]

3 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

The weather Gods have listened to the 'voice of the people' ...

BTW, always been a fan of spam fritters but the lovely Danish chopped pork in the big round tin is no more.

That's painful to look at, though I'm not sure how accurate it is. No way was it 2C here this afternoon.

[Ravelin]

After looking at the 12Z GFS so far it does make you wonder why we even bother looking for cold and snow for the UK. Futile 99% of the time.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'd be happy if someone could explain how -20 uppers can get down into the Atlantic at the same latitude as us (sometimes even further S) yet we struggle to get to -6 or -7 at 850 level. Will never understand it.

[Woollymummy]

Haha, love the "you get what you asked for" Brexit snow map above. I was sad when I looked out of the window and saw the short term models were right about the frost going and the rain coming, boo hiss, but if you need a bit of schadenfreude to make you feel better, pity the poor Californians who have longed for rain for so long, but are now going to drown or have their lovely hillside mansions wash away.... Santa Cruz, Ca rainfall forecast for this Sunday:

[knocker]

Triggers, sliders, topplers abound this evening. How about squashers?

Major upper trough/cold air squashes mid Atlantic ridge, initiating another strong thermal gradient a.k.a the SW jet.

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

After looking at the 12Z GFS so far it does make you wonder why we even bother looking for cold and snow for the UK. Futile 99% of the time.

The answer is dont look at the GFS, its useless.

If we had the range of information for either the ECM or UKMO that we have for the GFS I doubt we would even look at it.

[Seasonality]

Poor old UK. Only warm land mass at the same latitude.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Game over for January. Expect a different outlook from the MetO tomorrow..

[Evening thunder]

With regards to this winter, I don't find the boring comments bizzare, I agree tbh.

I'd take this winter above December 2015 for sure, but it seems we've had far less sunny days and frosts than many places, bar a few decent ones recently such as Tuesday morning (we were on the edge yesterday). December had 3 weeks of mainly mild, damp, dull weather-less rubbish.

Now it's back to hunt for any hint of brightness in the 7 day forecast for here  
At least it then looks like going more PM dominated but the Abores high is always lurking.

I'd happily take a crisp cold high pressure dominated spells with hard frosts and sunny days, but mostly that's not been the case here.

Tbh I can't remember feeling more frustrated/dispirited about our weather than this winter really, it may well be a cumulative effect of recent winters and raised expectations for this winter, constant hype and good charts, watching even Italy getting -15C 850's which we haven't had since 1991 I believe... etc, etc. Can't really blame me lol.

[jethro]

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Poor old UK. Only warm land mass at the same latitude.

Damn that gulf stream, is there nothing we can do to turn it off? What we need is a Trump-esque wall built right across the Atlantic, from sea floor upwards. Surely some boffin could come up with a plan....build turbines into it, add in some ground source heat pumps and sell the idea as a 'cure all' for green energy.

[MidnightSnow]

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Edited January 6, 2017 by MidnightSnow